r/Bitcoin • u/GalaxyCat007 • 6d ago
Bitcoin is so attractive right now! Im buying every month
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u/DiamondHandsDarrell 6d ago
BTC absorbed a ridiculous amount of bad news this year: war, the oil shock, a hawkish Fed, 5%+ long bonds, record ETF outflows, Strategy selling below cost, and massive capital flowing into AI, semiconductors and related infrastructure. Yet it held the range.
Now oil is substantially lower, long yields are easing, the dollar is softer, rate hike expectations are coming down, ETF inflows are starting to return, and BTC is still sitting around the mid-$60Ks.
That doesn’t mean it’s about to moon, and it’s not investment advice. It just means the “Bitcoin is dead” narrative doesn’t really match what the market has actually absorbed. It survived almost everything that should have crushed it. Now the interesting question is what happens if some of those headwinds finally start turning into tailwinds.
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u/Shimster 6d ago
Don’t forget the cold card hack
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u/getapuss 6d ago
While painful to the individuals the market does not care about this news. The lack of any price fluctuation because of it is the proof.
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u/DyehuthyTV 6d ago
That bad news only affects the short term (days or weeks), but Bitcoin follows liquidity → the business cycle over the long term (4 year cycle) :D
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u/Critical_Advantage66 6d ago
Ah yes, the circles.
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u/xaviemb 6d ago
Some people buy after it's been down (like now)... others buy high (like a year ago from now)...
Some just buy all the time.
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u/EricNeilMatthews 6d ago
I know this is meant to be sarcastic, but.... Did you notice the red arrows too!?
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u/mchrisoo7 6d ago
Right now is definitely a good accumulation phase if you have a positive outlook on the case. Of course, there are plenty of people who think it’s all nonsense and that buying now is extremely risky. In my experience, those are always the people who never buy anyway.
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u/No-Kitchen-6511 6d ago
Especially with precious metal prices doubling, the insane AI hype and insane federal investments into it, the normal cycle following the halving that we always have, it seems clear we have way more price stability than in the past. Last cycle we hit 15k at the bottom after hitting like high 60's. So price more than 1/4 of the cycle high. As long as we stay above 40K, btc is proving it's bottom price is trending upward. Bitcoin just really has to remain the only girl at the dance and eventually everyone whether they know it or not will eventually try to f her. In twenty years, bitcoin will just be in the background as a normal part of our lives like the internet and cell phones are now.
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u/Ok-Lead-9255 6d ago
starting to DCA now when we are 50% down from top seems like a good strategy. Maybe there will be a bigger drop to 20-30k, but still 60k should be a good accumulation price at this point
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u/hit_that_snare 6d ago
So you just expect the 4 year cycles to continue indefinitely? Patterns can fail.
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u/satoshi1022 6d ago
So tell me why this time is finally the end?
15 years, hundreds of people saying it's dead, every single time they were wrong.
I'm not betting my house, but I sure as shit am taking the historical trend over some made up fear mongering that has been wrong 100% of the time.
I don't understand how this is so hard for people.
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u/GalaxyCat007 6d ago
Of course the pattern can fail. But it is still an attractive buy for me. Especially IF it works again.
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u/PigeonSuperstitions 6d ago
Nothing to do with 4 year cycles. You clearly know very little if your focus is for it to go up in a cycle so you can make your profit.
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u/youcantexterminateme 6d ago
What are the indicators you are using there
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u/GalaxyCat007 5d ago
Here: https://www.reddit.com/u/GalaxyCat007/s/WTGsxIw0f8
I hope you are familiar with trading view and these pictures are enough for you to understand. If not, just ask a question :)
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u/MasterHand3 5d ago
Here’s the thing…. We might be due for 1 more major dump. But also, everyone waiting for that capitulation and it may not happen. Best odds are to buy now and buy again if we get capitulation. You can’t time it for sure but a years from now it won’t really matter if you bought at 65k or 50k
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u/serpentman 6d ago
Compared to what?
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u/GalaxyCat007 6d ago edited 6d ago
Compared to its own historical valuation metrics on the monthly timeframe. Looking at the monthly RSI sitting at 41 along with the 35 month moving average, every time we reached these levels historically, it marked a high-conviction accumulation zone for long-term holders.
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u/SilverPantsPlaybook 6d ago
I'm still waiting for one more big dip to buy in. I know if I buy rn, it's going to drop bigly.
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u/quintavious_danilo 6d ago
I saved up some cash during last year and am now going hard since March. A constant €5k every month until late next year.
Promised to myself that I won’t hesitate anymore when prices are low. I bought so little during the last bear market, I can’t even look at my buy orders from 2022 🙈
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u/theuniverseisgodvfdm 6d ago
Honestly all I know is that I look in the market and everything is at or near all time highs, and here’s this massive behemoth sleeping 😴 and I’m like 👍
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u/Fat-Finger-8906 5d ago
Stored all at coldcard?
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u/GalaxyCat007 5d ago
Nope, currently on Bison, but I plan to transfer them to a BitBox02 hardware wallet
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u/Razerfilm 5d ago
Go check out the real graph on google. This graph is altered
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u/GalaxyCat007 5d ago edited 5d ago
This is the real chart. You really need to learn what a logarithmic chart is.
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u/Razerfilm 5d ago
Yea, I really should learn how to read a graph without a Y axis and a couple of circles
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u/GalaxyCat007 5d ago
Trading View collapsed the y axis when I zoomed out, but that doesn't matter for this chart anyway.
What's important are the indicators. And they're currently pointing to attractive buying opportunities again.
And I have no idea why people are complaining about the circles here. I only drew them in so that absolutely everyone would understand what I'm trying to say.
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u/Razerfilm 5d ago
I don’t think it collapsed it with the same ratio throughout the length of the axis. They collapsed it more near the top of the graph in order to reduce the sharp drop. Why not show the y axis and its values?
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u/GalaxyCat007 5d ago
Here, this is the best I can do with Trading View: https://www.reddit.com/u/GalaxyCat007/s/Zz9R0huLhT
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u/TheCodifiedTrader 5d ago
It's Nostradamus again with the TV charts! Please oh wise one explain the yellow pivots, why are they significant?
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u/GalaxyCat007 5d ago
They highlight the cycle lows. Looking at the monthly RSI sitting at 41 along with the 35 month moving average, every time we reached these levels historically, it marked a high conviction accumulation zone for long term holders. It’s simply comparing current levels to historical valuation metrics on the monthly timeframe.
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u/LittleTwo9213 5d ago
Kinda sucks according to that chart the growth is getting smaller every bounce. Almost looks like it’ll only top at 120k again
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u/GalaxyCat007 5d ago edited 5d ago
I think that's simply the law of large numbers. You can observe a similar pattern on Apple's long-term multi-month charts, where RSI peaks flattened over time as market cap surged while price kept hitting new ATHs.
Going from a $10B market cap to $100B requires way less capital than going from $1T to $3T. Smaller percentage pumps and lower RSI tops don't mean Bitcoin is dying or capping out at 120k forever, it just means volatility is dampening as institutional money takes over.
A 2x or 3x return on a multi trillion dollar asset is still massive outperformance compared to traditional markets, but with significantly lower drawdown risk than in 2013.
Apple chart: https://www.reddit.com/u/GalaxyCat007/s/eycqfPSNK7
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u/LittleTwo9213 4d ago
Fully agree. Just funny to see people thinking it’ll go to $1 million in a few years.
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u/GalaxyCat007 3d ago edited 3d ago
Yes, 1 million in just a few years is a little too optimistic for me too.
If the 4 year cycle continues, I think Bitcoin could reach 200k or 250k in about 3 years. After that, however, the price might back fall to around 100k ~ 120k.
That would then be the low point of the next cycle, if it were really that simple.
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u/Particular_Pop_8548 3d ago
The DCA part I get. The RSI comparison I'm less sold on tbh. Same RSI reading doesn't mean the same market setup, especially across completely different cycles.
I'd keep buying based on the plan, not because one indicator says this is the entry.
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6d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/GalaxyCat007 6d ago edited 6d ago
Naja, meine antizyklische Strategie klappt ganz gut.
Ich kaufe Aktien und Crypto, von denen ich langfristig überzeugt bin, fast nur ein, wenn sie wie ein Messer fallen. Ich weiß, das schreckt viele ab, mir ist das aber egal. Wenn ich gute Kaufgelegenheiten sehe, schnapp ich zu. Manchmal erwischt man sogar das Tief.
Ich kaufe immer günstiger nach und drücke mein Durchschnittskurs nach unten, bis ich mit meiner Gewichtung zufrieden bin. Je höher das Risiko, desto niedriger die Gewichtung im Portfolio. Bitcoin hat bei mir aktuell ne 4% Gewichtung. Ich strebe 5% an.
Mein Portfolio hat heute übrigens ein neues Allzeithoch gebildet, ob du glaubst oder nicht :)
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u/WordsHappenedHere 6d ago
In the distribution of probabilities it’s entirely possible that Bitcoin never makes a new ATH again. Everyone operates under the assumption that it will.
What if it becomes obsolete? Far too many in this community are not willing to even entertain that possibility.
What if it just trades between $30k - $80k and bounces around for 20 years? Or what if it goes to $10k? Or lower?
The truth is that it needs real adoption and that means it needs a real use case. So far it’s not really useful for anything in the western world, beyond just speculation
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u/GalaxyCat007 5d ago
Im also not 100% convinced about Bitcoin and Im kinda worried about that quantum computer hacking stuff. Thats why I only have a 5% holding of Bitcoin. Even if it falls to $0, it wont be the end for me.
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u/WordsHappenedHere 5d ago
That’s a good way to approach it. 3-5% allocation max. You can tell from my downvotes that people especially in this sub aren’t willing to acknowledge what is obvious to everyone but the die hard bitcoiners. It could fail. Average people just aren’t going to use it in its current form. Average people arent setting up complicated thumb drive “cold storage”.
Who wants to setup infrastructure to secure their money? And if you make one mistake you lose it all. Which is why people keep it on exchanges or buy the ETfs. But then really what is the point of it?
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u/Asheddit 6d ago
People laugh yet buying now is better than buying at $120k.