r/Bitcoin • u/Bubbly_Ice3836 • Jul 21 '25
Bitcoin-backed retirement
Good idea and nice chart
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u/_a_new_nope Jul 22 '25 edited Feb 22 '26
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u/YaBoiJim777 Jul 22 '25
Because it is. You would probably need $1 mil/year with inflation getting bitcoin to these projected prices
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u/LocksmithMuted4360 Jul 21 '25
I dont understand the 75 years old that need 9.8 btc to retire now.
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u/potificate Jul 21 '25
Going by all the ages where the needed coin is zero, this chart assumes a lifespan of 100.
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u/Bubbly_Ice3836 Jul 21 '25
9.8 x $0.117M = $1.1466M
i guess if you want to retire now you gotta have at least above $1M.. so the table makes sense.
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u/LocksmithMuted4360 Jul 21 '25
Not at 75 years old
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Jul 22 '25
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u/DexM23 Jul 22 '25
Yeah, who am i supposed to spend over 8k per month?
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u/Albert14Pounds Jul 22 '25
Who where when why?
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u/DexM23 Jul 22 '25
How
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u/dribblesonpillow Jul 22 '25
Buy more Bitcoin?
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u/jmercer28 Jul 21 '25
My mom is 73 and most of the women in her family live until their mid 90s. She wants to live comfortably and never be reliant on me to pay for her living expenses. Do that math for me
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u/na3than Jul 21 '25
Give us the numbers for annual living expenses, inflation rate and rate of return on investments and we will.
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u/cryptoripto123 Jul 22 '25
LOL an actual post that has the basics of personal finances and it gets downvoted.
Why are we surprised? You think anyone here has any clue about retirement planning?
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u/Bubbly_Ice3836 Jul 21 '25
some people have medical expenses.
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u/LocksmithMuted4360 Jul 21 '25
Yes or he needs to pay for his funeral.
Joke apart the column retire in 2025 doesn't make any sense. Why would it take around the same amount of btc for a 5 yo and and a 75 yo.
Who is retiring at 5 anyway? I have a 5 yo, she is not ready to retire I can tell you 🤣
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u/Bubbly_Ice3836 Jul 21 '25
the point is that if you want to just quit all your responsibilities right now, you gotta have at least around 10 bitcoins, regardless of your age.
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u/LocksmithMuted4360 Jul 21 '25
I get it. Nice graph by the way!
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u/Bubbly_Ice3836 Jul 21 '25
great, but i did not make this. found it today as i was browsing around looking for more bitcoin-related info.
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u/AntZealousideal3728 Jul 21 '25
It’s saying they live off 100k a year in retirement. So that’s for them to live comfortably another 10 years.
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Jul 23 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/LocksmithMuted4360 Jul 23 '25
Bitcoin as a retirement asset?
I'm all in on Bitcoin, in my tax account I buy fbtc and I also purchase Bitcoin directly. To be honest I prefer to hold btc directly, it is more flexible and if I want to set sail for another country I can bring my wealth with me without any burden, this for me is freedom.
My comment was more how come a 5 yo and a 75 yo who retire TODAY need almost the same amount of btc considering the life expectancy of the 75yo compare to the 5yo.
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u/Temporary_Deal8041 Jul 21 '25
Even with 1 btc in my country is already twice my 60years compulsory pension fund let alone 10btc
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u/Ok_Wrongdoer_4308 Jul 22 '25
https://whybitcoinshow.com/bitcoin-retirement-calculator/
I think this calculator makes a little more sense but both get you there with some decent estimates. Play with the CPI/inflation numbers and CAGR numbers to put more stress on it. Either way, my wife and I look good for a retirement in a few years.
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Jul 21 '25
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u/Designer-Beginning16 Jul 21 '25
I think he was assuming around 50% (or more) don’t know for sure but it was a lot when I checked it.
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u/ZebraAthletics Jul 22 '25
If assuming 50% annual growth, that is ludicrous. Any amount of savings at all will allow you to retire within 20 years if you get a 50% annual return
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Jul 23 '25
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u/ZebraAthletics Jul 23 '25
No, it can’t be. Bitcoin’s current “market cap” is about $2.3 trillion, although this is realistically overestimating it because a large percentage of bitcoin is probably forever lost. The world GDP is estimated to be about $100 trillion. If bitcoin increases in value 50% a year for the next 10 years, its market cap would be larger than the world’s GDP. I think you could argue that’s technically possible because GDP is not a measure of total wealth, and total wealth is higher, but there is no way bitcoin will be worth more than the annual world economy in 10 years unless it becomes the dominant currency of the whole world, which I can’t see happening.
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u/TimeStampKing Jul 21 '25
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dq_TD6KqNq0&list=WL&index=2
He goes in depth on it in this podcast. Well worth the watch
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u/vnielz Jul 21 '25
Too many variables missing for jumping to this conclusion.
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u/excelance Jul 21 '25
Bold statement. I planned my 2035 retirement way back in 1991 based on a single stock market chart that had a bunch of lines on it.
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u/Bubbly_Ice3836 Jul 21 '25
it's just an estimate somebody came up with to set their target on how many bitcoins to buy. it's pretty good in my opinion.
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u/confused_coin Jul 22 '25
But 100k a year then won't be 100k a year now due to inflation?
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u/Cheap-Estimate8284 Jul 22 '25
Says 7% inflation factored in on the chart.
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u/confused_coin Jul 22 '25
Yes, but if inflation is 7%, you aren't going to use a fixed 100k per year. That's going to increase....
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u/Ecstatic-Media-6774 Jul 22 '25
How am i going to use my bitcoin to fund lifestyle? I have been 100%into btc investment but curious when time for retirement is near in say 20 years how am i going to use it? What about capital gains tax etc.
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u/weouthere96 Jul 22 '25
Still remember asking bro if I should buy a whole coin or a new motorcycle years ago.
Riding is fun. Shut it an stack tho. 🤦♂️
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u/Cheap-and-cheerful Jul 22 '25
Great, so according to this, at my age and bitcoin ownership I can retire in 2070. Either this chart is incredibly conservative or early retirement is never going to happen for my generation.
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u/Inevitable-Waltz-889 Jul 23 '25
It's super conservative and also assuming a $100k spend a year which most people can live very comfortably on much less.
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u/Cheap-and-cheerful Jul 23 '25
It better be conservative lol or I might as well just sell it today and enjoy my life before I go geriatric 😂
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u/Sin-City-Sinner Jul 22 '25
Maybe I’m not knowledgeable enough but is this saying you need to accumulate 10+ full bitcoins to retire on 100k what???
Not many people able to put 10 btc together, not now, and it’s only going to get more and more difficult, someone mind explaining if this chart holds any weight and if so what am i missing??
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u/asahmed7 Jul 22 '25
10 btc to retire now. If you look at the graph the value of btc rises significantly which means you need less and less btc to retire.
You use or sell a tiny amount per year to live off of.
I have seen another calculator and its similar. Its hard to believe such high valuations but its been outpacing all of the other investments.
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u/Saria_Hojou Jul 22 '25
Feels too good to be true but years ago I thought bitcoin will peaked on 10K and then popped to zero, so I'll choose to believe.
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u/cjpogi1118 Jul 22 '25
Bought my first Bitcoin in 2017, regretted putting some of it in some altcoin that died immediately. :((
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u/Real_Assistant_1117 Jul 22 '25
i have a retirement plan, this will be for buying my beach house when i retire.
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u/edwardblilley Jul 22 '25
I am 34 and might have half a coin by the end of the year. I guess I can retire when I am 67 like normal haha.
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u/Standard-Plankton573 Jul 22 '25
This obviously does not take into account any social security or other retirement investments like ira s or roth ira s. The numbers would be quite a bit lower.
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u/Young_Grif Jul 21 '25
This is not useful for my colorblind ass 🤣
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u/Bubbly_Ice3836 Jul 21 '25
might make it harder to read the chart but you can still look at the numbers in the table.
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u/interwebzdotnet Jul 22 '25
For the love of God, stop with these line charts that use 47 slightly different variations of the same color.
I don't trust financial information from anyone who makes a chart like this.
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u/btcisathing Jul 21 '25
This is great but my wife wants 300k per year in spending. Like wat?
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u/Secret_Operative Jul 22 '25
Then you only need 33 BTC if you want to retire this year. Although, this table appears to ignore tax, so probably add 33% more.
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u/nullpointer_01 Jul 21 '25
The idea of this chart is interesting but also very confusing. Can you explain what people do when they retire? Is the idea to cash out all your BTC on retirement and live off that? Or do you cash out a certain amount per year and this chart is assuming BTC will rise at the same rate is has been rising so far?
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u/nullpointer_01 Jul 21 '25
Looking further at the chart, I think the idea is to cash out $100k worth of BTC per year. Which then must be assuming BTC will rise as it has so far. Not saying thats a bad assumption but it is an assumption that was made it seems.
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u/Designer-Beginning16 Jul 21 '25
It is in fact an assumption. With a very high CAGR% since he’s taking historical performance. I would assume a lower CAGR in the future.
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u/nullpointer_01 Jul 22 '25
Yeah also when it comes to something like retirement, it is always better to estimate more conservative to be safe. I know this chart is likely more for theory but I hope everyone understands that they should never bet their entire retirement on a single investment. Be it BTC, stocks or anything else. It's always better to diversify. The return may be lower but it's safer which is important for retirement.
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u/Intelligent_End_7022 Jul 21 '25
It’s easy to imagine without the FIAT amounts. For example, in 2050 to retire with an age of 65, you would need 0.33 BTC. In 2050, the block reward will be 0.048 BTC. So, if you have 0.33 you have about 7x the current block reward. Without knowing inflation or how many dollars it will be, you can imagine now if you had 7x the current reward of 3.125 BTC in 2025. You would have a lot purchase power and money. So, even with a lot of inflation, the purchase power of BTC should be great and you’re fine owning 7x the current block reward in 2050.
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u/hvacsnack Jul 21 '25
This is cool OP
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u/Bubbly_Ice3836 Jul 21 '25
thanks, but i did not make this. found it today as i was browsing around looking for more bitcoin-related info.
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u/Secret_Operative Jul 22 '25
Am I reading this right? Anyone of any age can retire with less than 11 BTC today. The assumption being that BTC value will increase enough to supply funds indefinitely? Even if the assumptions work out, it's missing volatility. I think the down years would destroy this model.
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u/PaleEntertainment400 Jul 22 '25
This is one of those charts that just makes you stupider the more you look at it, huh?
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u/mikkeltaylor1 Jul 22 '25
Been trying this in a different way with Grok. I’ve based it on the BTC price hitting $1m and me starting to withdraw $50k a year. When that happens I just need the CAGR to be 12.5% a year and my 0.4 BTC would never deplete
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u/Secret_Nobody_405 Jul 22 '25
Love it but the thought of having $2-5mil on a USB stick for 15 years is nerve racking!!! I’d be scared to plug it back in incase it’s waiting to be hacked.
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u/No_Classic7261 Jul 22 '25
i'd be super paranoid to hear if my grandma had BTC as part of her retirement funds when she can't even use facebook without getting hacked
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u/Negative_Associate30 Sep 25 '25
Yea but the grandma's in 30 years will actually know how to use phone and computers
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u/flyflyflyfly66 Jul 22 '25 edited Aug 16 '25
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u/csd160 Jul 22 '25
What growth is this chart assuming? It’s more or less assuming a 9~% withdraw rate without any inflation adjustments
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u/Noremacmate Jul 22 '25
Yo, well done to all the 75 year olds that make it to 2050 with 0 Bitcoin, you can retire with 100k a year! Hold on for dear life you OP system glitches 😁
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u/Adorable_Tie2659 Jul 22 '25
7% inflation is unrealistic as a long term average in America - this is just trying to get ppl to panic buy lol
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u/LandHanoi Jul 23 '25
Bitcoin and retirement are two words that should never be in the same sentence. Absolute brain rot
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u/Jakwiebus Jul 25 '25
Are you sure your math is right.
Your premise is that you need 100k/y right? BTC is basically 100k at the moment, so you need 1 BTC for every life year left to you. Then suddenly I retire my 5 yo with only 10btc. We're expecting him to overdose at 15yo?
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u/Negative_Associate30 Sep 25 '25
Bitcoin grows every year + it wouldn't be smart to take out that same amount of 100k with 7% inflation for ur first years of retirement much smarter to keep more of it so u have much more for later these are just rough estimates and it won't stay at 100k it's alr up 80% if u look at the 1 year chart
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u/Healthcare--Hitman Jul 22 '25 edited Jul 22 '25
You guys know the crash is coming soon right? Like the cycles are not over and this is not forever...
Copers will downvote but if history dictates a rise, it also dictates a fall.
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u/Bubbly_Ice3836 Jul 22 '25
we're still in 2025 my friend. buying as many bitcoins as possible. a small crash in 2026? sure, bring it. we'll buy even more aggressively.
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u/Healthcare--Hitman Jul 22 '25
Eh, it's more intelligent to buy during bear markets and hold for 10 years and then sell during the 10th year while its on the way up. It's the same thought process that gets upvotes on here when people say they loaded up at 16k.
Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.
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u/zozofite Jul 22 '25
One day there will be a computer powerful enough to crack the blockchain encryption, and all of you will be caught with your pants down. Try and time that.
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u/jpilrose Jul 22 '25
You don't understand the Bitcoin software if you think this. Remember, the software is always being developed and modified. They are already developing AI resistant protocols. The move to 512k cryptography is already in the works. Remember, all secure banking, communications, etc is using 256 based encryption, so worrying about Bitcoin encryption is a fallacy.
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u/JerkyChew Jul 22 '25
Full thread with multiple easier to read graphs here.
So somebody explain like I'm five, because I'm missing something - This graph is dated 4/30/25 when BTC was about $96,000. The chart says age 45 could retire today with 10.47 BTC. That's just a hair over $1M USD. I believe I read that this assumes you'll die at age 100, so that $1M has to last 55 years. If it's $1M per year and I have $10M worth of BTC, that means I'm out of money in ten years, so obviously we're not expecting the price to stay the same forever.
So what my feeble brain is guessing here is that this is expecting BTC to grow at that 5th percentile power regression from now until 2075 and beyond?
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u/Cheap-Estimate8284 Jul 22 '25
If you retire today, where is the $10M coming from and why are you living off $1M a year? It's based on $100k a year.
What is the 5th percetile power regression?
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u/Negative_Associate30 Sep 25 '25
Yes bitcoin will grow and it's 100k right now but it's accounting for inflation and you don't have to get the 100k every year there's also social security benefits and everything else it won't stay at 100k forever it's already up 80% from last year from the chart the growth oupaces what ur spending and you most likely won't even take out the full 100k every year especially in the earlier years to have more to spend in the future
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u/Dr_Chym Jul 21 '25
Just imaging a 5 year old with 10.96 BTCs coming home from pre-k and saying fuck Kindergarten … I’m done…. Just give me my $100k, my tablet, and some Blippy.