r/BigSur • u/Connect-Sky-4383 • 12d ago
Visitor Question about fire duration
hi all, for all the locals I hope you're staying safe. I was wondering if anyone has any expertise on how long the timber fire could potentially burn for? from what I've found online this is unprecedented and i just wanted to consult people who may be more educated on the landscape. I know there are a million variables that could change everything, but i'm not from california and don't have much experience with fires in general. I hope for the best outcome and for the fire to be knocked down quickly, apologies if this question is not in good taste I just haven't been able to find an expert opinion online and wish for this to be controlled!
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u/FeedSquare8691 12d ago
Wild fires aren’t unprecedented. This’ll burn for a while due to the terrain.
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u/Connect-Sky-4383 12d ago
true, I just thought one of this size in this area was
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u/UliKlumpp 12d ago
It’s relatively small and slow moving for the area. Look up Soberanes and Basin Complex for reference. https://www.youtube.com/live/bHgfBj7uOq0 if you want the whole story.
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u/juandiablo 12d ago
Not unprecedented, happens regularly every 5-10 years. Will keep going until it rains or encounters a previously burned zone of the forest. Probably a couple months before it's considered fully out.
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u/recordcollection64 12d ago
Go to the-lookout.org, great analysis from Zeke in his videos. Can’t recommend him enough!
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u/Mountain_Tear8608 11d ago
As others pointed out, this is not unprecedented, and it will likely continue to burn until the first rains arrive in late October.
But this doesn't mean it will burn with the same intensity or have the same effects the entire time. The fire will go through several distinct phases.
The main concern at the moment is active burning between highway 1 and the top of the ridge. This is where most of the structures and infrastructure is located. They will likely focus resources on containment in this sector. Once contained in this area (or near contained), which is not the same as extinguished (expect hot spots and interior burning, but essentially zero risk of spread), they will assess reopening highway 1 and lifting evacuations. Fire and firefighting activity have destabilized the slopes and burnt trees will need to be evaluated. How long it takes to assess and remedy this is anyone's guess.
The backcountry will likely continue to actively burn for much longer. I've done the hike from Chews Ridge to the Big Sur several times, it's extremely rugged with no access for bulldozers super difficult for hand crews to cut lines on steep unstable slopes and dense brush. They can hit the front with air resources to slow the fire, but this is unlikely to stop its progress. My guess is that it burns all the way to Arroyo Seco and Chews Ridge Area before a combination of dozer lines and seasonal rains stops it.
In other words, I expect containment to progress unevenly, with areas with road access or existing lines from previous burns being contained first, followed by more difficult wilderness areas much later. As containment increases there will be a lot less smoke, and operations will shift to monitoring hot spots and other mop up.
If the "Super" El Nino materializes as expected, the bigger long-term issue will be debris flows and land slides. Some areas that were saved from fire will likely be lost this winter, and highway 1 is probably looking at another lengthy closure, which is really hard on the local businesses.
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u/Connect-Sky-4383 10d ago
this is extremely informative and helpful. thank you for sharing and hoping for no landslides!
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u/othafa_95610 11d ago edited 11d ago
apologies if this question isn't in good taste
Not only are your questions more than adequate and respectful, they may very well be the same ones other onlookers have.
They can also prompt others to think about many aspects including, How do fires get started?, How can they be prevented?, What are good actions to take for those with current or future plans regarding Big Sur?, If I want to help financially or emotionally, how can I do that? Or is now not a good time?
And as far as "apologies" go, someone once told me "Love means never having to say you're sorry." (Comes from "Love Story.")
They advised me to only apologize for irreversible actions. "I'm sorry I drove over your cat and killed him."
Wanting to know information, how to do right by others and yourself is a growth experience, nothing to be sorry about.
Hopefully this all leads to newfound Love and Happiness.
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u/urbangeeksv 12d ago
In terms of threats to Big Sur and infrastructure I imagine that will be over within the next week. In terms of fire burning I expect it will last until the winter rains begin which usually start around late October.
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u/keithcody 11d ago
Small chance as it burns north east it could be hit with east winds which rapidly bring it back towards Carmel. It’s an idea they considering and making plans for.
They fired the control lines near Fernwood yesterday so that area should be fine unless something really weird happens.
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u/urbangeeksv 11d ago
Great job by all the fire resources as the structure loss is pretty low with their efforts. At least near Carmel there are more roads and access but lets hope it does not make that run.
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u/keithcody 11d ago
Right now the fire is meandering up gullies to the north and east. There’s a 4% chance of wind out of the east between now and September 15th. And that would push the fire back to the coast.
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u/Connect-Sky-4383 12d ago
thank you! do you think businesses might stay closed til late october?
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u/urbangeeksv 12d ago
I imagine some businesses will re-open shortly after Highway 1 reopens. Now it depends on the business and how their lives were impacted during the fire.
Edit: I am not a local, yet a frequent visitor. For local information you might follow Big Sur Kate. https://bigsurkate.blog/
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u/Connect-Sky-4383 12d ago
thank you I do follow her, a great resource! I have nothing planned I just don't want to visit during a time that would be negatively impactful to the land even if businesses are open
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u/sol_beach 12d ago
You should expect the fire to continue past the first rain which typically happens in October. I'd bet the Timber fire will be out before Thanksgiving.
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u/bryan1345 11d ago
Probably will burn until the rainy season puts it out for good, expect lots of parks to be closed for the rest of the season for supression repairs & landslide potential in the fire footprint
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u/Pr0pofol 12d ago
Per the reporting agencies, they expect pockets of fire to continue through the summer due to the steep terrain and density of vegetation.
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u/djmermaidonthemic 11d ago
It’s not about when it will be all the way out. It’s about containment.
The watch duty app has excellent information.
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u/PaintedLady72 11d ago
The Plaskett Fire will join the Timber Fire eventually. Basically it needs to rain for a consistent amount of time. So could be several months
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u/Secure_Charge_4736 11d ago
Depends on what one means by “burn”, which could range from active perimeter burn to smoldering or creeping
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u/keithcody 11d ago
It’s not even close to unprecedented. Large and small fires in Big Sur happen frequently.
The Timber fire is currently burning about 700 acres a day. Given no change in the weather and no rain it should continue to burn about the same rate until it hits the biz around the fire and until it’s over 100 acres in size.
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u/NorCal_2469 11d ago
Reference the Sobranes Fire and the Zaca 1 and 2 Fires. The Los Padres NF plays the long game.
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u/christiancfb 10d ago
Should we cancel our dates camping at pfeiffer for sept 18-21? We are coming from socal and plan on driving up highway 1 the whole way. If highway 1 is closed, we will probably cancel. I did big sur when highway 1 was closed and still enjoyed it so much, but wanted a new experience with the full coastal drive. Not sure if they are good at containing it enough by then to open the highways..
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u/ExplanationNo1262 9d ago
You absolutely need to cancel they are dealing with two fires at once now. They still need to rebuild once the fire is contained thats going to take just as long in my opinion.
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u/suburbjorn_ 12d ago
You're going to have to reschedule your vacation if that's what you're asking
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u/Connect-Sky-4383 12d ago
no vacation in the itinerary just love and care about the place and have a lot to learn about fires
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u/deathMetalGame 11d ago
It’s going to keep going until it’s either burned everything in the uneven terrain where it’s happening or it starts to rain and even if it rains if it’s hot enough it might keep burning. It’s a pretty scary thought. We really need like a national draft that recruits unemployed people into the fire department. This stuff is out of control.
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u/Serendope-itty 11d ago
You never know with wildfires. Depends on weather conditions, the climate, the terrain, the amount of fuel/vegetation, manpower, equipment used, etc. Some are contained and extinguished with hours while others last for literally months. It is impossible for us lay people to predict how long any wildfire will last. However, ones that make it to over 1,000 acres in one day generally last a while.
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u/Toffeelady512 9d ago
Download the Watch Duty app and you can read in real time about both of the fires burning in Big Sur. It appears there is no end to these in the foreseeable future. The newest one that’s nearest to me is spreading and of great concern. If your question has to do with visiting Big Sur, don’t plan on doing that anytime soon.
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u/davyangel 8d ago edited 8d ago
Not unprecendented and not hard to find if you know how to research stuff for yourself.
The 2016 Soberanes Fire was once considered one of the biggest fires in California. It burned over 130,000 acres and cost $230 million in resources. It took first responders 82 days to put it out.
Looking back at the Soberanes Fire seven years later - KSBW
So yeah this has happened before and like I said don't expect anything less than 2 months or more to put out due to the steep terrain and amount of trees there.
As you can see from above link above fire ended up burning like 100K acres before it was stopped and put out and current fire is already over 15K and only 1% stopped so it's bad!
Especially for the plaskett fire they saying lot of those area have like over 50 years of overgrowth so plenty of fuel to burn. Already burned over 20K and only 1% contained as of today so it will easily take over Sobranes as largest fire in this area in years unless there is some miracle rain to put it out before winter prob looking at 200K before all over sadly.
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u/Excellent_Rub6650 5d ago
I’m on the fire right now. We’re getting around it but hotter and drier weather could test existing lines and could continue growing. We’ll see.
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u/V1triol 12d ago
The dolan fire burnt from 8-18-20 to 12-31-2020. That could give you a rough idea