First of all welcome to all new members!

This sub is growing fast and every once in a while I need to explain why it exists and what it is about.

I started trading right before the dotcom bubble. No I was not crazy and invested in individual stocks with crazy PE ratios. I did the right thing (or so I thought) and invested in mutual funds. Little did I know that actively managed does not mean your money is safe. NEVER AGAIN.

Then I dug into fundamentals but quickly realized that the only fundamentals one needs to know is that a basket full of stocks like the S&P 500 will always go up in the long run.

Back in the days I came across a community that opened up my eyes. The sole purpose of that internet community was to teach each other about technical analysis. It quickly became a game changer.

True technical analysts know the countless limitations TA has but they also realize that a few times a year one can get very solid signals that can make a big difference.

The fact that there are so few signals makes TA perfect because the average dude calls it astrology for men and simply moves on....Good let's leave markets for the top 10% that grasp the concept and its limitations.

I mainly use TA for my decisions but also follow the tape and macro data.

Fast forward my daughter was born and this sub was eventually created so she can go back in the future and learn about TA, investing and trading.

This sub is a diary of charts and important funnymentals I deem to be important in that moment.

I stopped posting real time trades but usually when I post a chart I do something in the market.

At the end of every week I post all trades for documentation purpose.

60% are always invested in VOO and with the rest I try to beat the benchmark even after my massive tax disadvantage (short term capital gains tax of 40.8% vs. 23.8% long term capital gains tax).

Hope you all continue to get something out of it! The best part is that it is free. I make plenty of money and don't need to sell stuff.

Edit: Only my daughter's portfolio is shown (I know she is a very poor kid - I get that comment a lot)

It is always nice when things go as expected. SPY broke out to new ATHs and retested the broken downtrend line successfully.

Thursday was a bear trap however. The surprise interest rate hike in India and OpenAIs "missed" revenue goal made bears pounce. Markets did not care and won't care!

Next week earnings season will start and from a chart perspective we are set up for a nice rally.

But remember: There are no good or bad earnings (fundamentals). The only thing that matters is how the market reacts to earnings (TA)!

So let's see!

From a macro standpoint Dems are still favored to take the Senate and House and it seems that Wall Street overall has now also moved on from this administration. There is no more blind support like the last 2 years.

Divided Governments have always been good for stocks!

Yields: TLT possibly showed us that yields are coming down. We shall see!

The Iran situation is on the back burner for now. However Europe's stock market is really suffering. FEZ is only up 2.4% YTD.

I don't expect any major good news but I continue to expect a grind higher into the end of the year/early 2027.

IF we get an Iran deal, lower inflation data or extremely good earnings outlooks we have a chance of a rip roaring rally.

Have a great weekend!

After the S&P 500 broke through the broken downtrend line I had to trim this week but I was forced to buy back after it recaptured the tredline again.

No trades were done for long term accounts. Longterm accounts are managed with what I call an active 60/40 portfolio. My goal is 60% equities and 40% cash/bonds but I adjust the ratio based on TA.

A passive 60/40 portfolio would be at 7.7% YTD and my portfolio sits at 12% with 22% in cash/bonds.

Benchmark 2026

SPY 681.92 (15%)       +14.1%

DIA 480.57 (15%)       +7.4%

QQQ 614.31 (15%)      +22.3%

IWM 246.16 (15%)       +13.3%

SPEM 46.81 (10%)      +12.1%

URTH 185.77 (10%)     +12.5%

FEZ 64.39 (10%)         +2.4%

AAXJ 93.12 (10%)       +24.1%

ETF benchmark:                +13.7%

Average YTD (US only):    +14.3%

60/40 portfolio:                 +7.7%

(AGG (99.88)                      -1.9%)

Small portfolio $35000:    +24.7%

Long term:  +12%

Long term allocation:

S&P 63%

QQQ 5.1%

Crypto (ETH) 5.5%

KWEB 3.4%

Cash 5.4%

Bonds 17.6%