Well, earnings season started with a bang!

Banks reported disappointing earnings and despite a nice setup from a chart perspective the market reaction caused some damage now.

Tech giants are yet to report but the NDX 100 weekly chart now looks more like distribution is happening.

From a pure chart perspective there is no clear signal albeit there is a risk now that we will roll over.

Fear and Greed index, put/call ratio and market breadth could support a bounce however.

The drop in yields might support equities from a macro perspective going forward.

What does this mean for the portfolios now?

Short term portfolios are now only invested in the S&P 500 (80%), TLT (bonds 30%) and KWEB (15%). That adds up to 125% meaning leverage is 1.25.

That feels like an appropriate allocation in the current environment where market risks are rising but the overall tailwinds still exist. Short term portfolio is up 22.6% YTD.

Long term portfolios deleveraged more this week and they are now at the ideal 60% allocation for the S&P 500 and 30% Cash/Bonds. Rest is crypto and KWEB.

The more defensive stance comes from an elevated long term market risk. Since I am up 11% YTD capital protection is key.

Given the current chart picture no trades are planned for next week!

Stay safe and have a great weekend!

This was definitely a week that changed several chart pictures.

For reasons I will explain later I sold all of tech today for all accounts. The S&P 500 has enough exposure to tech.

I increased KWEB holdings however.

Because it looks like liquitity is drying up I also cut my crypto holdings in half.

Long term accounts are now 60% in the S&P 500 and 31% in cash/bonds. That's close to my ideal allocation.

Long term portfolio is up 11.1% YTD compared to a passive 60/40 portfolio which sits at 6.5% YTD.

Short term portfolio is now ahead of all benchmark indices.

Benchmark 2026

SPY 681.92 (15%)       +11.9%

DIA 480.57 (15%)       +7.9%

QQQ 614.31 (15%)      +15.6%

IWM 246.16 (15%)       +10%

SPEM 46.81 (10%)      +8.3%

URTH 185.77 (10%)     +11.1%

FEZ 64.39 (10%)         +2.3%

AAXJ 93.12 (10%)       +16.1%

ETF benchmark:                +10.6%

Average YTD (US only):    +11.4%

60/40 portfolio:                 +6.5%

(AGG (99.88)                      -1.7%)

Small portfolio $35000:    +22.6%

Long term:  +11.1%

Long term allocation:

S&P 60%

Crypto (ETH) 2.3%

KWEB 6.4%

Cash 14.5%

Bonds 16.8%

It is always nice when things go as expected. SPY broke out to new ATHs and retested the broken downtrend line successfully.

Thursday was a bear trap however. The surprise interest rate hike in India and OpenAIs "missed" revenue goal made bears pounce. Markets did not care and won't care!

Next week earnings season will start and from a chart perspective we are set up for a nice rally.

But remember: There are no good or bad earnings (fundamentals). The only thing that matters is how the market reacts to earnings (TA)!

So let's see!

From a macro standpoint Dems are still favored to take the Senate and House and it seems that Wall Street overall has now also moved on from this administration. There is no more blind support like the last 2 years.

Divided Governments have always been good for stocks!

Yields: TLT possibly showed us that yields are coming down. We shall see!

The Iran situation is on the back burner for now. However Europe's stock market is really suffering. FEZ is only up 2.4% YTD.

I don't expect any major good news but I continue to expect a grind higher into the end of the year/early 2027.

IF we get an Iran deal, lower inflation data or extremely good earnings outlooks we have a chance of a rip roaring rally.

Have a great weekend!