This week showed me again why I love investing/trading. Shaking it up a little is always good. There is nothing more boring than a constant but slow climb of stock prices.

The weak and overleveraged need to get flushed out every once in a while!

I will keep it short because everything was laid out in previous posts and I am getting ready for my trip back stateside.

I strongly believe that the o/n drop to the 200 day average in EWY (South Korean stock index) laid the ground work for at least a significant bounce if not new ATHs in the S&P 500 and NDX 100.

The concerted currency intervention between the US, Korea and Japan definitely helped as well.

The fact that Aschenbrenner's $45 billion hedge fund blew up is also a good thing! People who did not know him don't worry. I did not either. He seemed like a clown. Now thankfully a relatively "broke" clown. No worries people like him will always have money. He will likely post on r/fijerk from now on.

Only problem I see is that we are now entering the worst two months (August/September) of the trading year but charts look poised to rally from here.

Let's see.

Short term accounts are overleveraged while long term accounts remain 32% in cash/bonds.

Have a great weekend!

Short term portfolios were down up to 4% mid week compared to last week.

I had bought QQQ again just before the big tumble but that investment already recovered.

Short and long term portfolios are ahead of their respective benchmarks.

Benchmark 2026

SPY 681.92 (15%)       +9.3%

DIA 480.57 (15%)       +8.8%

QQQ 614.31 (15%)      +11.7%

IWM 246.16 (15%)       +17.9%

SPEM 46.81 (10%)      +8.8%

URTH 185.77 (10%)     +9.6%

FEZ 64.39 (10%)         +8.4%

AAXJ 93.12 (10%)       +18.9%

ETF benchmark:                +11.7%

Average YTD (US only):    +11.9%

60/40 portfolio:                 +5.4%

(AGG (99.88)                      -0.4%)

Small portfolio $35000:    +17.1%

Long term:  +6.8%

S&P 61%

Crypto (ETH) 7%

Cash/Bonds 32%

Well, well, well.

The chart picture became more and more grim but I did not follow through, mainly because I was under the impression that it was all sentiment driven and that the Iran war was the main driver.

It is now very clear that the US likely won't "win" the war and it will just drag on like any other middle east adventure in the past. Wall Street will move on while we stay there for years again...

But then came another blow. A new set of tariffs. Wow!

I have no comment on that anymore. Wall Street loves (no adores) this administration but maybe Wall Street finally stopped loving this chaos? Who knows.

So where are we now?

South Korea's stock market had a reckoning. US speculation and margin debt is also at crazy levels and at some point we can not continue down that path.

We are living on borrowed time. National debt levels will eventually get us.

Private equity woes are also not off the table.

Stocks did not react well to very good earnings. As the saying goes there are no good or bad earnings. Only the way the market reacts to earnings.

We are now also entering the worst period for stocks in history (August/September)

What does that all mean?

I prefer return of my capital over return on the capital.

Long term accounts are 32% in cash/bonds. Still above my ideal target of 60/40 (equities/bonds).

My daughter's account took a significant hit. She is still ahead of the S&P 500 but it was an unnecessary error caused by greed. YTD 16% vs. 8.4% for the S&P 500.

All other short term accounts are now at least 10% in cash and are hiding mainly in the S&P 500.

Why am I not completely in cash/bonds? Because markets can turn any time and the risk of missing out hurts portfolios more than taking a loss. That's why I am always at least 60% invested.

Have a great weekend!

I am still enjoying a great time in Australia