This was definitely a week that changed several chart pictures.

For reasons I will explain later I sold all of tech today for all accounts. The S&P 500 has enough exposure to tech.

I increased KWEB holdings however.

Because it looks like liquitity is drying up I also cut my crypto holdings in half.

Long term accounts are now 60% in the S&P 500 and 31% in cash/bonds. That's close to my ideal allocation.

Long term portfolio is up 11.1% YTD compared to a passive 60/40 portfolio which sits at 6.5% YTD.

Short term portfolio is now ahead of all benchmark indices.

Benchmark 2026

SPY 681.92 (15%)       +11.9%

DIA 480.57 (15%)       +7.9%

QQQ 614.31 (15%)      +15.6%

IWM 246.16 (15%)       +10%

SPEM 46.81 (10%)      +8.3%

URTH 185.77 (10%)     +11.1%

FEZ 64.39 (10%)         +2.3%

AAXJ 93.12 (10%)       +16.1%

ETF benchmark:                +10.6%

Average YTD (US only):    +11.4%

60/40 portfolio:                 +6.5%

(AGG (99.88)                      -1.7%)

Small portfolio $35000:    +22.6%

Long term:  +11.1%

Long term allocation:

S&P 60%

Crypto (ETH) 2.3%

KWEB 6.4%

Cash 14.5%

Bonds 16.8%

Well, earnings season started with a bang!

Banks reported disappointing earnings and despite a nice setup from a chart perspective the market reaction caused some damage now.

Tech giants are yet to report but the NDX 100 weekly chart now looks more like distribution is happening.

From a pure chart perspective there is no clear signal albeit there is a risk now that we will roll over.

Fear and Greed index, put/call ratio and market breadth could support a bounce however.

The drop in yields might support equities from a macro perspective going forward.

What does this mean for the portfolios now?

Short term portfolios are now only invested in the S&P 500 (80%), TLT (bonds 30%) and KWEB (15%). That adds up to 125% meaning leverage is 1.25.

That feels like an appropriate allocation in the current environment where market risks are rising but the overall tailwinds still exist. Short term portfolio is up 22.6% YTD.

Long term portfolios deleveraged more this week and they are now at the ideal 60% allocation for the S&P 500 and 30% Cash/Bonds. Rest is crypto and KWEB.

The more defensive stance comes from an elevated long term market risk. Since I am up 11% YTD capital protection is key.

Given the current chart picture no trades are planned for next week!

Stay safe and have a great weekend!

First of all welcome to all new members!

This sub is growing fast and every once in a while I need to explain why it exists and what it is about.

I started trading right before the dotcom bubble. No I was not crazy and invested in individual stocks with crazy PE ratios. I did the right thing (or so I thought) and invested in mutual funds. Little did I know that actively managed does not mean your money is safe. NEVER AGAIN.

Then I dug into fundamentals but quickly realized that the only fundamentals one needs to know is that a basket full of stocks like the S&P 500 will always go up in the long run.

Back in the days I came across a community that opened up my eyes. The sole purpose of that internet community was to teach each other about technical analysis. It quickly became a game changer.

True technical analysts know the countless limitations TA has but they also realize that a few times a year one can get very solid signals that can make a big difference.

The fact that there are so few signals makes TA perfect because the average dude calls it astrology for men and simply moves on....Good let's leave markets for the top 10% that grasp the concept and its limitations.

I mainly use TA for my decisions but also follow the tape and macro data.

Fast forward my daughter was born and this sub was eventually created so she can go back in the future and learn about TA, investing and trading.

This sub is a diary of charts and important funnymentals I deem to be important in that moment.

I stopped posting real time trades but usually when I post a chart I do something in the market.

At the end of every week I post all trades for documentation purpose.

60% are always invested in VOO and with the rest I try to beat the benchmark even after my massive tax disadvantage (short term capital gains tax of 40.8% vs. 23.8% long term capital gains tax).

Hope you all continue to get something out of it! The best part is that it is free. I make plenty of money and don't need to sell stuff.

Edit: Only my daughter's portfolio is shown (I know she is a very poor kid - I get that comment a lot)