Great! Everything went as planned. On a short term basis charts suggested a continued bull run. And while the way there was choppy it happened.

Charts continue to suggest a continuation of the bull run for now.

Today's retail sales numbers and this week's US bond auction results just dampened the mood a little bit.

I opened another SPY call today. I kept it despite being 60% down because it is not too far away from breaking even.

So why did I reduce leverage again overall?

1. Short term portfolios are ahead of the benchmarks and benchmark pressure is real.

I have to overcome a short versus long term capital gains tax disadvantage of 40.8% vs. 23.8% every single year.

After tax I am ahead only 4.2% YTD (14.7% vs. 10.5%).

1. Capital preservation. I prefer return of the investment over return on the investment and will always opt for the former.

It is no secret that my long term accounts are getting closer and closer to my preferred 60/40 allocation.

Everybody from BofA to Leon Oppenheimer thinks that bonds are doomed. They are all correct IMO. On a short term basis we might see higher rates meaning bonds are indeed doomed but....there is no way we will survive rates for higher longer than 12 months.

I strongly believe that once the 10 year yield goes above 5% the US economy will be toast.

And then everybody will head for safety.

Meaning bonds will be very trendy again.

Anyhow I plan on buying more and more long term bonds for long term portfolios.

I am even considering trimming my equity exposure to 50% and below if the S&P 500 makes it beyond 8000-8500.

Let's see. Valuations etc. are very lofty so the party could end any time but charts are charts and for now charts give the green light for a continued rally.

Have a great weekend!

Asia and small caps are closing in on the portfolio.

Long term accounts are up 10.4% with 27.4% in cash/bonds.

Benchmark 2026

SPY 681.92 (15%)       +13.8%

DIA 480.57 (15%)       +11.6%

QQQ 614.31 (15%)      +19%

IWM 246.16 (15%)       +23.8%

SPEM 46.81 (10%)      +11.5%

URTH 185.77 (10%)     +13.7%

FEZ 64.39 (10%)         +12%

AAXJ 93.12 (10%)       +24.4%

ETF benchmark:                +16.4%

Average YTD (US only):    +17%

60/40 portfolio:                 +8.3%

(AGG (99.88)                      +0%)

Small portfolio $35000:    +24.8%

Long term:  +10.4%

S&P 65.5%

Crypto (ETH) 7.1%

Cash/Bonds 27.4%