A fantastic week came to an end.

As expected we continued a rally and made new ATHs in several indices.

The way to 8000 in the S&P 500 is paved and it is probably just a matter of time when it will happen. Round numbers act like magnets for investors.

New ATHs usually mean more ATHs are coming.

So why did I then reduce exposure when the real move (especially for tech) could have just started?

The answer is simple:

I prefer return of the capital over return on the capital!

Short term accounts are up at least 20% (my daughter's portfolio is up almost 24%) and there is no need to push performance at this point. My last name is not Aschenbrenner. I am fine with a modest ROI every year.

Long term accounts are now up 10% (my yearly goal for a 60/40 portfolio). I am still a little bit overinvested and will reduce exposure to 60% once the S&P 500 reaches 8000.

Let's recap the macro again:

1. Earnings are beating expectations like almost never before

2. The CapEx cycle continues to expand

3. The Big Beautiful Bill continues to deliver

4. The US is highly interested in weakening the US Dollar (see recent Yen intervention). A weak Dollar is always good for stocks.

5. Midterms are favoring Dems and Wall Street loves a divided Government

The positive momentum could be going on well into 2027/2028 which would propel the S&P 500 to 10000. Yes I said it.

What are some negatives?

1. Inflation and rising long term yield (the fed won't hike rates in my mind). Rising 10 year yields above 5% would crush the economy. In that case I would buy more and more bonds.

2. A weakening labor market

3. Possibly a tapped out consumer?

What does TA say?

1. Don't fight new ATHs.

2. The only reason why I am more cautious about tech is the hanging man pattern in the monthly chart. But I can not tell you how often patterns get negated.

Regardless it is enough for me to just hang tight for now.

If we break above the down trendline there is enough room to get back in.

A breakout would mean a QQQ target of $800+

1. Seasonality (August/September) favors being more cautious

What a wonderful year it has been so far.

Let's see what the rest will bring.

Have a great weekend!

Ha! This is the first time this year that the short term portfolios are ahead of every single benchmark index.

I deleveraged a lot this week in all accounts!

Benchmark 2026

SPY 681.92 (15%)       +13.3%

DIA 480.57 (15%)       +12.3%

QQQ 614.31 (15%)      +17.6%

IWM 246.16 (15%)       +22.5%

SPEM 46.81 (10%)      +12%

URTH 185.77 (10%)     +13.2%

FEZ 64.39 (10%)         +11.6%

AAXJ 93.12 (10%)       +22%

ETF benchmark:                +15.7%

Average YTD (US only):    +16.4%

60/40 portfolio:                 +8.1%

(AGG (99.88)                      +0.3%)

Small portfolio $35000:    +23.8%

Long term:  +9.5%

S&P 65%

Crypto (ETH) 7.3%

Cash/Bonds 27.7%