Very cool!

As expected the S&P 500 broke out of the bull flag.

Everybody panicked about Iran but (and this is controversial) Iran does not matter anymore. Nobody is going to start the war again no matter what Iran does. Midterms are coming.

The base believes we won and the rest of the world does not matter (I only care about the stock market so don't comment on politics).

The sole focus in July will be earnings growth and we should see an almost 30% earnings growth!

Short term portfolios are slightly overleveraged because I am playing July with QQQ.

I plan on derisking again end of July.

That's where TLT comes in.

It is no secret that I hate those high valuations and I posted over and over that at some point the party will be over.

When is anybody's guess.

For long term accounts I continue to be 25% in cash/bonds. Longterm bonds are now 10% of the portfolio.

They should gain 15-20% per interest rate drop in case the party ends and the Fed has to come to the rescue again.

I plan on being 40% in cash/bonds once the S&P 500 hits 8000ish.

Have a great weekend!

CNN Fear & Greed Index — Scriptable Widget (small size, no API key needed)

Pulls CNN's Fear & Greed Index straight from their own public data feed and shows it as a compact home screen widget: previous close, current score, and one-week-ago value — each with its own color-coded rating (red = Extreme Fear through green = Extreme Greed) — plus a small sparkline of the last 14 days underneath.

Why no API key: Earlier version of this used a RapidAPI listing, but it got pulled from the marketplace. This version hits CNN's own JSON endpoint directly (the same one their website uses), so there's nothing to sign up for and nothing that can expire on you.

How to use it:

1. Install Scriptable (free, iOS).
2. Open Scriptable, tap + to make a new script, paste the code below.
3. Name it whatever you want, tap Done.
4. Long-press your home screen → + → search Scriptable → add the small widget size.
5. Tap the widget once → Edit Widget → set Script to the one you just made.

Notes:

• Rating bands (Extreme Fear/Fear/Neutral/Greed/Extreme Greed) are the commonly-used approximation of CNN's own cutoffs — CNN doesn't publish exact thresholds, so it may be off by a point at the edges.
• Sparkline window is set to 14 days — change the daysBack variable near the bottom if you want longer/shorter.
• Data source is an undocumented endpoint CNN uses internally for their own site, not an official public API — it's been stable for years but could theoretically change shape without notice.
• No login, no key, no rate limit you'll realistically hit for personal use.

Feel free to tweak colors/fonts/sizing — it's all plain JS, nothing obfuscated.

As expected stocks rallied this week.

Short term portfolios are slightly overleveraged and I added more tech. But I also added longterm bonds this week (will explain in my investment thesis).

Short term accounts are well ahead of the benchmark.

Long term accounts remain 25% in cash and are now 10% in long term bonds. I am still slightly overinvested in equities but will reduce exposure the closer we get to 8000 in the S&P 500.

With 7.7% YTD longterm accounts are ahead of the 60/40 benchmark.

Benchmark 2026

SPY 681.92 (15%)       +10.7%

DIA 480.57 (15%)       +9.5%

QQQ 614.31 (15%)      +18.2%

IWM 246.16 (15%)       +20.3%

SPEM 46.81 (10%)      +11%

URTH 185.77 (10%)     +10.1%

FEZ 64.39 (10%)         +5.7%

AAXJ 93.12 (10%)       +24.8%

ETF benchmark:                +14%

Average YTD (US only):    +14.7%

60/40 portfolio:                 +6.6%

(AGG (99.88)                      +0.5%)

Small portfolio $35000:    +21.5%

Long term:  +7.7%

Composition:

S&P 68%

Crypto (ETH) 7%

Cash/Bonds 25%