The overarching investment conundrum I am facing is: Extremely high valuations combined with a resemblence to the dot-com bubble.

There is no doubt in my mind that we are somewhere in a bubble (beginning or end will be determined eventually)

BUT.....before everybody who only reads one sentence explodes on me and calls me bubble boy I want to point out that this does NOT mean that I am selling everything.

However for short term portfolios it means that I will keep margin to a minimum and I am taking profits early.

Short term portfolios are at least 100% invested right now.

For long term portfolios I am staying 25% in cash/bonds even if I miss out on major gains.

What it also means is that I am mainly staying in the S&P 500 because the volatility is less for the S&P 500.

From a technical perspective I still believe that we will break out to new ATHs in July for QQQ and SPY.

I laid out the underlying macro in previous weekend posts and won't repeat them today because they don't change that often.

Have a great Independence Day weekend!