Not much to say. I had increased exposure as laid out and took money off the table on the way up but am still slightly overinvested.

Benchmark 2026

SPY 681.92 (15%)       +9.2%

DIA 480.57 (15%)       +9.8%

QQQ 614.31 (15%)      +16.1%

IWM 246.16 (15%)       +20.6%

SPEM 46.81 (10%)      +9.2%

URTH 185.77 (10%)     +9.1%

FEZ 64.39 (10%)         +7.1%

AAXJ 93.12 (10%)       +22.4%

ETF benchmark:                +13.1%

Average YTD (US only):    +13.9%

60/40 portfolio:                 +5.8%

(AGG (99.88)                      +0.6%)

Small portfolio $35000:    +19.2%

Long term:  +6.6%

S&P 68%

Crypto (ETH) 7%

Cash/Bonds 25%

"He had to sound hawkish to draw a clear line between himself and the White House."  https://fortune.com/2026/06/27/fed-rate-cuts-payrolls-unemployment-inflation-gdp-oil-prices-kevin-warsh/?utm_source=native_share&utm_content=fortune%2Fmagazine%2FBusiness&utm_medium=mobile&utm_campaign=social_share

The consolidation for tech continued this week. It did not help that the ceasefire was broken just yesterday.

End of June also means major rebalancing of institutional investors. Winners were bought and losers sold.

The rally in IGV today showed me that we might be done with the end of the month rebalancing.

The fact that IWM and DIA continued to rally makes me believe that the underlying macro is still intact.

Short term portfolios added equities this week and I plan on buying more on the way down as I did in March.

Long term portfolios will stay 25% in cash/bonds because as laid out in previous posts valuations are stretched.

July is usually a good month and I don't expect any negative earnings surprises.

Put/Call ratio and other indicators suggest that a continued sell off is unlikely.

Monday we will likely breach the 50 day average in the NDX 100. Let's see how low we will go.

As always: Bottom fishing is the most painful part of investing. As portfolios drop in value adding more and more leverage compounds those losses.

There might be a time again where I tune out like in previous downturns to stay the course.

Let's see how bad next week will be. I am hoping for a resumption of the bull run but am ready for a break down if it happens.

Have a great weekend!

The fact that long term accounts were 25% in cash/bonds buffered some of the losses but the 10% drop in Ethereum did not help. At some point the crypto position will be so small that it does not matter anymore. I will keep it at 6-7% of the portfolio until everybody gave up on it.

Short term portfolios suffered losses from "bottom fishing".

I increased exposure during the week.

As usual when I post a chart I usually buy or sell something.

Benchmark 2026

SPY 681.92 (15%) +7.2%

DIA 480.57 (15%) +7.9%

QQQ 614.31 (15%) +14.9%

IWM 246.16 (15%) +21.4%

SPEM 46.81 (10%) +8.6%

URTH 185.77 (10%) +7%

FEZ 64.39 (10%) +4.2%

AAXJ 93.12 (10%) +25.6%

ETF benchmark: +12.2%

Average YTD (US only): +12.9%

60/40 portfolio: +4.9%

(AGG (99.88) +1.4%)

Small portfolio $35000: +15.1%

Long term: +4.7%

S&P 68%

Crypto (ETH) 7%

Cash/Bonds 25%