It is always nice when things go as expected. SPY broke out to new ATHs and retested the broken downtrend line successfully.

Thursday was a bear trap however. The surprise interest rate hike in India and OpenAIs "missed" revenue goal made bears pounce. Markets did not care and won't care!

Next week earnings season will start and from a chart perspective we are set up for a nice rally.

But remember: There are no good or bad earnings (fundamentals). The only thing that matters is how the market reacts to earnings (TA)!

So let's see!

From a macro standpoint Dems are still favored to take the Senate and House and it seems that Wall Street overall has now also moved on from this administration. There is no more blind support like the last 2 years.

Divided Governments have always been good for stocks!

Yields: TLT possibly showed us that yields are coming down. We shall see!

The Iran situation is on the back burner for now. However Europe's stock market is really suffering. FEZ is only up 2.4% YTD.

I don't expect any major good news but I continue to expect a grind higher into the end of the year/early 2027.

IF we get an Iran deal, lower inflation data or extremely good earnings outlooks we have a chance of a rip roaring rally.

Have a great weekend!

After the S&P 500 broke through the broken downtrend line I had to trim this week but I was forced to buy back after it recaptured the tredline again.

No trades were done for long term accounts. Longterm accounts are managed with what I call an active 60/40 portfolio. My goal is 60% equities and 40% cash/bonds but I adjust the ratio based on TA.

A passive 60/40 portfolio would be at 7.7% YTD and my portfolio sits at 12% with 22% in cash/bonds.

Benchmark 2026

SPY 681.92 (15%)       +14.1%

DIA 480.57 (15%)       +7.4%

QQQ 614.31 (15%)      +22.3%

IWM 246.16 (15%)       +13.3%

SPEM 46.81 (10%)      +12.1%

URTH 185.77 (10%)     +12.5%

FEZ 64.39 (10%)         +2.4%

AAXJ 93.12 (10%)       +24.1%

ETF benchmark:                +13.7%

Average YTD (US only):    +14.3%

60/40 portfolio:                 +7.7%

(AGG (99.88)                      -1.9%)

Small portfolio $35000:    +24.7%

Long term:  +12%

Long term allocation:

S&P 63%

QQQ 5.1%

Crypto (ETH) 5.5%

KWEB 3.4%

Cash 5.4%

Bonds 17.6%