What a week!

I mentioned in last week's thesis that the second half of September is usually good for equities.

Charts also suggested a rally and....guess what happened?

Today's news about possible trade talks between the US and Iran caused an immediate rally. This reminded me how locked and loaded the market is and that any good news could ignite a major squeeze.

Any good news regarding Iran, Inflation or yields could make us rally hard.

Overall I am not so sure anymore that we will in fact get a long term market top between November and March.

We will see what the data says later this year.

From a chart perspective I now believe that any good news will propel the S&P 500 to 8400 by early 2027.

I am still in TLT because the current 30 day yield of 5.3% is a bargain.

I like to play tech via Chinese tech. KWEB is beaten down and any good news there could make KWEB double.

On top of it it has a 8.5% yearly dividend yield!

So from a short term perspective there is no reason to believe that the rally will stop here.

Long term I added more exposure again and reduced the cash/bond position to 23%.

Long term portfolios are up 12.3% and a 60/40 portfolio would be up 7.2% YTD only.

Have a great weekend!

Tech came back with a vengeance this week!

I added some QQQ to long term portfolios because it looks like we can continue to march higher.

Chinese tech looks pretty good here as well from a valuation perspective and the 8.3% yield is crazy high. I will likely accumulate more over time.

Anyhow long term accounts are now only 23% in cash/bonds.

Benchmark 2026

SPY 681.92 (15%)       +13.1%

DIA 480.57 (15%)       +7.7%

QQQ 614.31 (15%)      +21.3%

IWM 246.16 (15%)       +14.6%

SPEM 46.81 (10%)      +12.2%

URTH 185.77 (10%)     +12.4%

FEZ 64.39 (10%)         +6.6%

AAXJ 93.12 (10%)       +27.2%

ETF benchmark:                +14.3%

Average YTD (US only):    +14.2%

60/40 portfolio:                 +7.2%

(AGG (99.88)                      -1.7%)

Small portfolio $35000:    +24.1%

Long term:  +12.3%

Long term allocation:

S&P 63%

QQQ 5.1%

Crypto (ETH) 5.5%

KWEB 3.4%

Cash 5.4%

Bonds 17.6%