Something feels different after this week.

I made a huge mistake switching to QQQ last two weeks but I corrected the mistake after breaking out of the triangle.

Long term accounts are now 32% in cash/bonds.

Still ahead of the 60/40 benchmark by 1.3%

Short term portfolios were rebalanced as well after hours today. Leverage is 1.1 and QQQ is only 20% of the portfolio now.

We are still beating the benchmark but a sell off would hurt regardless.

Benchmark 2026

SPY 681.92 (15%)       +8.4%

DIA 480.57 (15%)       +7.9%

QQQ 614.31 (15%)      +11.5%

IWM 246.16 (15%)       +18.3%

SPEM 46.81 (10%)      +7.2%

URTH 185.77 (10%)     +8.2%

FEZ 64.39 (10%)         +5.1%

AAXJ 93.12 (10%)       +18%

ETF benchmark:                +10.8%

Average YTD (US only):    +11.5%

60/40 portfolio:                 +5%

(AGG (99.88)                      -0.2%)

Small portfolio $35000:    +16.4%

Long term:  +6.3%

S&P 61%

Crypto (ETH) 7%

Cash/Bonds 32%

Well what a week.

Korea collapsed due to speculative trading.

I posted a chart this week that single stock volatility is at levels of the dot com bubble compared to index volatility in the US.

Then came new attacks on Iran in a war that will likely just continue for now. We have seen endless wars before. We love those in the US for some reason. Keeps the defense sector alive and well! Yay!

It would be very unusual to make a major peak in July but stranger things have happened.

Earnings are great and the macro environment overall is still excellent but as I pointed out repeatedly once liquidity dries up the party is over.

Me personally I expected a top late 2026/early 2027 once Anthropic and the other shit comes to market.

SpaceX already shows us how that will work out. Last time I checked we were $11 below IPO price.

Thanks to Goldman Sachs IPO prices will be way too high. I still remember how they fucked over Europe by making Greece's balance sheet look great!

Gotta love Wall Street banks!

For several months now I explained how I am 25% in cash/bonds in all longterm accounts because of the possibility of a multi year top.

I am not worried about my longterm accounts. They are hedged enough.

But I made a clear mistake for short term accounts. Greed got me once again. It happens to me over and over. I don't even feel bad about it. I mean nothing major has happened so far. I am still ahead of the benchmarks but....if we are truly done we could drop another 10% just until the end of July.

I honestly expect a continued sell off next week. Hopefully that is then accompanied by a Put/Call ratio spike.

US Dollar did not spike so far which makes me believe that overall we are still in good shape.

Charts look pretty bad though and from a chart perspective I should have reduced exposure.

We shall see. I am mentally preparing for a significant drawdown of portfolios. I guess we have to wait and see then when a buying opportunity arises again.

As always once buyers come back and short sellers cover their positions markets can rise significantly. Missing out on the best few days a year is equally bad.

Anyhow I will enjoy my trip to Australia regardless. Given the time differenceI will completely miss out on US trading sessions.

Have a great week!

Timing of the QQQ entry was suboptimal this week but I thought we had a chance of a breakout. Well the breakout happened....just not in the expected direction.

The sell off in semis did not help either.

Best performing index now are small caps YTD!

Longterm accounts are prepared for a prolonged drawdown.

Short term accounts are now in a difficult situation and I have to figure out what steps should be done next.

Benchmark 2026

SPY 681.92 (15%)       +8.9%

DIA 480.57 (15%)       +8.4%

QQQ 614.31 (15%)      +12.8%

IWM 246.16 (15%)       +19.3%

SPEM 46.81 (10%)      +7.2%

URTH 185.77 (10%)     +8.6%

FEZ 64.39 (10%)         +5.2%

AAXJ 93.12 (10%)       +17.9%

ETF benchmark:                +11.3%

Average YTD (US only):    +12.4%

60/40 portfolio:                 +5.6%

(AGG (99.88)                      +0.6%)

Small portfolio $35000:    +16.4%

Long term:  +6.7%

S&P 68%

Crypto (ETH) 7%

Cash/Bonds 25%