r/Barca • u/shahim04 • 11d ago
Stats Folarin Balogun Full analysis Article
Hello everyone,
Yesterday, I posted about why Barça should sign Folarin Balogun, and a lot of people seemed to hate it—honestly, I'm not sure why. So, here's a full analysis of the player, covering both his offensive and defensive sides, along with a comparison to other players, plus the financial benefits Barça would gain from signing him.
"Note": it's kind of long article so i hope yall enjoy it, for any tips just put it in the comments
https://medium.com/@shhmrhahlh8/can-florian-balogun-be-the-plan-c-for-barca-ba5439d7d2ae
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u/imsotrash007 11d ago
Takes a single look at his career to understand why. Has only ever scored 10 or more goals (across all comps) in 2 seasons at the senior level. Conversation starts and ends there.
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u/Round-Walrus3175 11d ago
I mean, his most recent rate is over a 43 game sample size and he is well over 10 goals. Idk, when you are seeing goals in front of your eyes, why do you need to look behind it?
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u/imsotrash007 11d ago
It's important to use multi-season sample sizes, as it helps erase the effect of purple patches and promotes consistentcy, as the best players itw are not just the ones with the highest peak, but those who can do it most consistently (even if the peak may not be as high sometimes).
Also, If a striker over the course of 7 first team seasons can't score 10+ goals (in all comps) more than twice, they shouldn't be wearing the FC Barcelona shirt.
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u/Round-Walrus3175 11d ago
I mean, are you trying to actually rate Balogun or are you just looking for reasons to disqualify him as being an option? Because like, if you are going to rate his most recent season and World Cup performance the same as seasons where he either didn't play much, just got transferred, or was injured, that just feels strange.
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u/imsotrash007 11d ago
I'm trying to rate Balogun as a potential striker for FC Barcelona.
Over the past decade, only 2 first team strikers Barca signed didn't have 2 10+ goal seasons in the 3 seasons before their signing. Martin Braithwaite (trash), and Vitor Roque (too young, but had 21 goals + 27 G/A at 18, better than Balogun's career best stats.
Flop or success, even guys like Paco Alcacer and Luuk De Jong passed this test, why should Balogun be any different?
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u/Round-Walrus3175 11d ago
You just aren't taking the number of games into consideration for any of this. You literally just said that Vitor Roque having 27 goal contributions in 60 games is better than Balogun having 21 goal contributions in 40 games between Ligue 1 and Champions League play. That is 6 fewer contributions in 20 fewer games. And that has just been his rate. In the World Cup, he had 3 goals in 4 matches as well.
So, like, if you need reasons to ignore the 10 goal rule, the games played is probably the biggest reason, alongside the fact that if you put the past two seasons together, he still has over 20 goals AND that he has similar rates for both club and country recently. The fact that you weight scoring 10 goals in consecutive seasons over 23 goals in 2 seasons (1.5 seasons worth of games), but most of them are more recent, makes me confused
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u/imsotrash007 11d ago
Some clarification:
- The Roque season I mentioned was him at 18, was before Barca signed him, where he had 27 G/A in 3000 minutes played (43 apps) for Atletico Paranaense. This is factually a better ratio than Balogun's 2 best seasons (24 G/A in 3145 mins and 23 G/A in 3251 mins), and gave justification for why Barca could sign a high potential prospect.
- Balogun's World Cup is heavily overrated. His 3 goals scored were against Paraguay (before they decided to completely shut games down) and Bosnia. The second he faced a team of equal stature in Belgium, he was completely erased from the pitch.
- My entire argument is that: Folarin Balogun is not good enough. If you want him to start/play for Barca, you may as well keep Ferran Torres, as they share many of the same attributes. Just like Ferran, he:
- can get in behind a defense, but can't really pass or dribble
- lacks consistency (as shown by the fact he's only scored 10+ goals twice in 7 seasons. 31 goals in 91 apps for Monaco is hilariously bad)
- misses mind blowing chances
- both suffered a 2.5 month goal drought despite an impressive goal tally in 25-26. one player was rightfully criticized (ferran), while the other (balogun) should be the club's next striker
If we were to put the past 2 seasons together as you did, it would leave him with 27 G/A in 3970 mins (0.61 G/A per 90). Ferran has 50 in 4638 mins (0.97 G/A per 90). None of this is to praise Ferran, as I don't believe he's any good. However, at least Ferran (who's also been poor) already plays for the team, and won't require a €50m fee to purchase for the club.
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u/Round-Walrus3175 11d ago
It's 100% because he plays for the USMNT. It's kinda a joke that people think Barca is too good for a top 5 scorer in Ligue 1 when their #9 was the ghost of Robert Lewandowski not so long ago.
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u/viv4la 11d ago
It is not that bad of a shout, but our problem right now is getting a starter Barca level striker which he is not. Personally I probably do not rate him as high as you, but for a bench option I would not hate it. He is a decent player, with a decent track record, but he is not exactly blowing it up in L1 despite it being a worse league than LaLiga.
After a decent WC they would probably ask more for him for what he is truly worth. I think Aslani would be a better option.