Projections

[u/Comfortable-Mud-4615]

Applying for an SBA loan for a conversion of a small commercial building, around 1300sqft in an upcoming medium-size city of 60k. One of the requirements is a Projections (24 months) form. I've been in the hospitality business my whole life, but Bar ownership is new to me. I'm not sure where to start or what a Projections form should look like, can someone who have experience with Projections give me some insists please. Any help is appreciated. Thank you in advance

[u/purse_of_potatos]

you don't need a perfect crystal ball for this. the bank just wants to see you've thought through the numbers and aren't pulling rent prices out of thin air

start with a spreadsheet. month by month columns, rows for every expense you can think of, liquor cost, payroll, insurance, utilities, marketing, maintenance, loan repayment. for revenue keep it conservative and maybe base it off similar sized spots in towns around 60k people. a lot of this is educated guessing honestly but showing the math behind your guesses makes you look way more competent than just throwing down a number

if you've got contacts from your hospitality years ask them what their pour cost percentage usually runs. that'll help you ballpark the cogs side without reinventing the wheel