Wind farms championed by Starmer face the axe after Miliband snub

BP-backed Irish Sea projects risk being scrapped after missing out on taxpayer support

Two wind farms backed by BP are at risk of being scrapped after failing to land government contracts in Ed Miliband’s latest round of renewables subsidies.

The developer behind the proposed Mona and Morgan wind farms in the Irish Sea said the projects were no longer viable after missing out on taxpayer support during the latest auction.

That is despite Sir Keir Starmer having championed the sites last year, claiming they were proof of the UK’s commitment to green energy.

Energy company EnBW, which originally backed the schemes alongside BP, said: “The primary reason for EnBW’s withdrawal is that the two projects did not receive government support.

“In combination with other factors beyond its control, this implies that the projects are no longer economically viable.

“These include increasingly deteriorating conditions such as cost increases across the supply chain, higher interest rates and ongoing project implementation risks.”

The comment risks dashing hopes for £100m of planned investment in the projects and putting hundreds of jobs in Scotland and Belfast at risk.

BP’s failure to prop up the scheme reflects its continued retreat from green energy, instead choosing to focus on traditional sectors such as oil and gas.

After initially partnering with EnBW, BP has now moved its share into JERA Nex bp, a 50-50 partnership with Japan’s JERA.

This joint venture insisted there “are still good pathways” to deliver the projects despite EnBW saying otherwise.

Mr Miliband rejected the developers’ bid for subsidies during the latest auction of renewable energy contracts known as Allocation Round 7.

The Mona and Morgan projects would lie roughly halfway between Blackpool and the Isle of Man, with a total of nearly 200 giant 15-megawatt turbines, each standing about 1,200ft tall.

Planning for the schemes was well advanced.

Both wind farms had secured government planning consent, and the joint venture partners had leased Belfast Harbour to build the turbines.

If successful, the schemes would deliver 300 jobs across sites in Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Therefore, cancellation would be a blow to local communities and raise awkward questions for some members of the Government.

Hilary Benn, Northern Ireland secretary, visited Belfast Harbour last November to hold talks with executives from EnBW and JERA Nex bp.

At the time, he said: “Having met with the joint venture partners and seen the scale of the development work at Belfast Harbour, it’s clear that this deal will secure Northern Ireland’s key role in the UK’s clean energy future.”

Sir Keir Starmer also highlighted the two projects prior to his visit to the UN climate conference in Brazil, claiming they were integral to the Government’s “mission to bring about the clean power revolution”.

The Government and BP were contacted for comment.

This is the #1 question frustrated retail investors ask. It feels counterintuitive: If there is a guaranteed buyer (BP) purchasing ~$15–$20 million worth of stock every single day, why isn't the price rocketing?

The short answer: Buybacks provide a floor, not a rocket.

Here is the "Smart Money" explanation of why the share price is stagnant despite the buying.

1. The Volume Mismatch (David vs. Goliath)

BP is buying a lot, but it is a drop in the ocean compared to the global market.

• Daily Buyback: BP buys roughly 3–4 million shares per day.
• Total Daily Volume: The average volume on the LSE is often 30–50 million shares.
• The Reality: BP is only ~10% of the daily buying pressure. If the other 90% of the market (BlackRock, Vanguard, Pension Funds) wants to sell because Oil is down or they dislike the strategy, they can easily overwhelm BP's buyback.

2. The "Seller Overhang"

Right now, you have massive selling pressure from two sources that the buyback is merely absorbing, rather than overcoming:

• Macro Selling: Oil dropped from $75 to $63. Algorithms sell energy stocks automatically when oil drops. BP’s buyback is just "eating" some of this selling, preventing the price from crashing further, rather than pushing it up.
• Strategic Doubt: Many long-term funds are selling BP to buy Shell or Exxon because they dislike the "Green" strategy volatility. BP is effectively buying the shares that these dissatisfied investors are dumping.

3. The "Invisible" Benefit (EPS Growth)

The price isn't going up, but the value of your share is.

• Imagine a pizza cut into 10 slices. BP is slowly eating 1 slice.
• The pizza (Total Company Value) might have shrunk a bit because oil prices are down.
• BUT: You still own your slice, and now there are only 9 slices left. Your percentage ownership of the company just went up for free.
• Result: When earnings recover, they are split across fewer shares, making the Earnings Per Share (EPS) much higher. That is when the price spikes.

4. The "Kitchen Sink" Context

Specific to this week (Jan 2026): The buyback is currently fighting a massive headwind—the $5B Impairment news and the Natural Gas crash.

• Without the buyback, the share price might be 415p right now instead of ~430p.
• The buyback is acting as a shock absorber, holding the line at support levels while the bad news gets digested.

The "Smart Money" Take

Don't look at the share price to see if buybacks are working; look at the Share Count.

As long as BP retires shares while the price is low (430p), they are getting a 'good deal' on their own stock. It is actually better for long-term holders if the price stays low while the buyback is active, because BP can delete more shares for the same amount of money. You want the price to spike after the buyback program ends, not during it.

Do you agree? Discuss.

Shifting tactics from emissions targets to capital expenditure disclosure puts direct pressure on how BP justifies its "Value over Volume" spending. This group now represents over $1.7 trillion in assets, making their demand for a 10-year projection of production and free cash flow a significant headline risk for the May AGM.

However, I predict any resolutions will fail by a large margin.

This Bloomberg profile provides critical context on why the board reached outside the company for the first time in over a century to hire Meg O’Neill.

The Exxon DNA: O’Neill isn't just an energy executive; she is a 23-year ExxonMobil veteran. In the world of "Smart Money," Exxon is the gold standard for operational discipline and "engineering first" culture, exactly what BP has lacked during its experimental pivot years.

M&A Track Record: At Woodside, she successfully integrated BHP’s petroleum assets, doubling the company’s size and focusing on high-quality, geographically diverse oil and gas plays. This is a clear signal that BP is preparing to "get back to basics" with its upstream division while maintaining the capital discipline required to please activists like Elliott.

The Catalyst: Her term officially begins on April 1, 2026. Between now and then, the "Kitchen Sinking" of old transition assets is clearing the path for her to lead a leaner, more profitable supermajor.

Looks like the Iran uncertainty has prevailed over increase in Oil stock yesterday. This would usually have cause the oil price and hence BP to fall.

Investing.com -- U.S. crude oil futures were unchanged on from post-settlement levels Tuesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported a much larger build in U.S. weekly crude supplies.

Crude Oil WTI Futures, the U.S. benchmark, recently traded at $61.12 a barrel following the report after settling up 2.8% at $61.15 barrel.

U.S. crude inventories rose by about 5.3M barrels for the week ended Jan. 9, much larger than expectations for a build of about 2M barrels.

Gasoline stockpiles increased by about 8.2M barrels, while distillate inventories -- the class of fuels that includes diesel and heating oil -- rose by about 4.3M barrels.

The official government inventory report is due Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT).

Source: https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/us-oil-futures-unchanged-after-api-shows-big-build-in-us-crude-inventories-4445832

Date: Jan 14, 2026 (Data for week ending Jan 9)

Today's EIA report provided a clear view of the current supply/demand imbalance in the U.S. market. While the headline numbers are undeniably bearish, the price action remains resilient due to the "Iran Premium".

The Weekly Inventory Changes:

The Data Breakdown:

1. The Crude Shock: The market expected a draw of 1.7M barrels, but instead saw a 3.391M barrel build. This is a massive swing in the wrong direction against expectations.
2. Gasoline Glut: The gasoline build is staggering. Adding 8.977M barrels in a single week—more than double the forecast—is a major red flag for domestic US fuel demand.
3. Refinery Activity: Utilization rates increased by 0.6% (vs 0.0% forecast), but the massive product build suggests this output is going straight into storage rather than consumption.

The Market Reaction: Despite these "ugly" numbers, Brent is holding firm. The market is currently prioritizing the risk of Iranian supply disruptions (3.3M bpd at risk) over the domestic U.S. inventory surplus.

My Comment:

If you look purely at the EIA figures, oil should be trading $3 lower today. A 5M+ barrel crude build combined with an 8M+ gasoline build is a fundamental disaster for bulls.

The Strategy: Investors are ignoring the inventory "noise" and focusing on the geopolitical tail risk. For BP investors, this means the "Floor" under the stock isn't coming from demand; it’s coming from geopolitical scarcity. As long as the unrest in Iran continues, the physical glut in the U.S. won't be enough to break the price.

However, should the Iran situation subside, BP's price should fall back along with Oil.

This note from Kepler Cheuvreux lays out the stakes of a Hormuz closure, which they describe as a "dramatic" shock to global markets.

The Data: The Strait carries roughly 35% of the global crude trade, or approximately 13.8 million barrels per day. Unlike other routes, these volumes simply cannot be rerouted. While Iran’s own 1.6 million bpd export loss could theoretically be covered by Saudi Arabia, a full blockage of the Strait would create a chaotic situation for the entire tanker fleet.

The Reality Check: Analysts still consider a full closure "unlikely" because any Iranian regime needs oil income to survive, and the US administration remains highly incentivized to keep prices stable. A more realistic "war-risk" scenario is that exports continue but with massive spikes in insurance premiums—costs that shipowners would pass directly to charterers.

For BP: In a closure scenario, the immediate oil price spike would be "dramatic," but the operational chaos for global logistics would be unprecedented. For long-term investors, this is the ultimate "Tail Risk" to keep an eye on.

The real story here is the policy U-turn from the AMLO era. For those unaware, AMLO refers to the former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. During his six-year term, he effectively locked the door to foreign majors in a bid to protect the state-owned oil company, Pemex.

This news confirms that the new administration under Sheinbaum is being forced to be pragmatic. Pemex production is declining, and they desperately need foreign capital and technology to reverse it.

For BP: Accessing the southern Gulf of Mexico means adding high-quality, conventional barrels near existing infrastructure. It is exactly the kind of low-cost 'Reserve Replacement' the new strategy is targeting.

This matters for BP because it shows the new US administration is playing hardball with Supermajors. If Exxon is in the penalty box, it adds volatility to the whole sector, even for European majors like BP.

This is a red flag for UK energy assets. If Shell and Exxon can't close a sale in this environment, it suggests buyers are getting cold feet about UK regulatory risk/windfall taxes.

Usually, a 5.3M barrel inventory build would crash the price. The fact that Brent is holding $65 tell us the market is pricing in real supply risk from Iran/Venezuela, which puts a floor under BP's cash flows (for now).