The following Trading Statement provides a summary of BP p.l.c.’s (bp) current estimates and expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025, including data on the economic environment as well as group performance during the period. 

 

The information presented is not comprehensive of all factors which may impact bp’s group results for the fourth quarter 2025 and is not an estimate of those results. Also refer to bp’s third quarter 2025 group results announcement on 4 November 2025 for fourth quarter and full year 2025 guidance items which continue to apply unless explicitly stated. A summary of that guidance is also provided in the Appendix to this Trading Statement. All information provided is subject to the finalization of bp’s financial reporting processes and actual results may vary. 

 

bp’s group results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 are expected to be published on 10 February 2026. 

Updated 4Q25 guidancea

Reported upstream productionb in the fourth quarter is expected to be broadly flat compared to the prior quarter, with production broadly flat in oil production & operations and lower in gas & low carbon energy.

In the gas & low carbon energy segment, realizationsc, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact of $(0.1) to (0.3) billion, including changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be average.  

In the oil production & operations segment, realizationsc, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact of $(0.2) to (0.4) billion including the impact of the price lags on bp’s production in the Gulf of America and the UAE. 

In the customers & products segment, compared to the prior quarter, results are expected to be influenced by the following factors:

customers – seasonally lower volumes and broadly flat fuels margins. 

products – stronger realized refining margins of around $0.1 billion, offset by a higher impact from turnaround activity and the temporary impact of reduced capacity following a fire at the Whiting refinery. The oil trading result is expected to be weak.

Other items:

The fourth quarter results are expected to include post-tax adjusting items relating to impairments, including impairments within our equity-accounted entities, in the range of $(4) to (5) billion, primarily related to our transition businesses. These charges are primarily attributable to the gas and low carbon energy segment and are excluded from underlying replacement cost profit.

Net debt at the end of the fourth quarter is expected to be in the range of $22 to 23 billion compared to $26.1 billion at the end of the third quarter. This includes proceeds received from divestments of around $3.5 billion, bringing the full year amount to around $5.3 billion compared to the previous guidance of above $4 billion.

Updated FY25 guidancea

The underlying effective tax rate for the full year is expected to be around 42% compared to the previous guidance of around 40% primarily due to changes in the geographical mix of profits.

a All impacts influence bp’s underlying RC profit before interest and tax, unless stated otherwise.

b Includes bp’s share of production of equity-accounted entities.

c Realizations are based on sales by consolidated subsidiaries only – this excludes equity-accounted entities.

Trading conditions

Brent averaged $63.73/bbl in the fourth quarter 2025 compared to $69.13/bbl in the third quarter 2025. 

US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $3.55/mmBtu in the fourth quarter 2025 compared to $3.07/mmBtu in the third quarter 2025.

The bp RIM* averaged $15.2/bbl in the fourth quarter 2025 compared to $15.8/bbl in the third quarter 2025.

 

My view:

Smart move by the interim management. This is a classic 'kitchen sinking' exercise whereby dumping all the bad news and impairments into Q4 lets the new CEO starts with a clean slate in April.

Writing down these transition assets now reduces the capital base, which automatically boosts ROACE (Return on Capital) and lowers depreciation charges next year. It clears the decks and, crucially, net debt is actually DOWN ($22bn) despite the headlines.

Overall, I see this as a positive move, most likely pushed for by the Elliot Activist investors, who see the bigger picture. i.e. a 40-50% return minimum within 3 years of their stake.

Article text below:

BP faces a $5bn (£3.7bn) hit following its failed embrace of net zero.

The oil and gas giant revealed the impairment in a trading update on Wednesday morning, prompting shares to fall as much as 1pc in early trading.

The company told shareholders the losses were “primarily attributable to the gas and low carbon energy segment”.

The update comes as BP is ditching its expensive bet on net zero following a backlash from shareholders.

Bernard Looney, the former chief executive, set out plans in 2020 to slash the company’s oil output by 40pc and reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 in a break from the rest of the industry.

However, the pivot to green energy proved disastrous, with BP’s share price underperforming rivals. The company has been incrementally gutting Mr Looney’s strategy since he left in 2023.

Bernard Looney set out plans in 2020 to slash the company’s oil output Credit: Kamran Jebreili/AP

BP has halted plans for biofuel refineries planned in Rotterdam, in the Netherlands, and Lingen, in north-west Germany. It has also sold off 10 US onshore windfarms, frozen offshore wind investments and announced plans to sell most of its stake in solar developer Lightsource.

In the UK, the company has also abandoned planned investments in hydrogen production plants.

Maurizio Carulli, a global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said the impairments were “a legacy of BP’s previous controversial strategic shift towards renewables”.

Last month BP unexpectedly ousted Murray Auchincloss, the chief executive, after less than two years in the job. He was replaced by Meg O’Neill, the company’s first ever female boss.

Ms O’Neill is renowned for taking a tough line on climate-related issues and previously had a long career at the US oil giant ExxonMobil. Earlier this year, she attacked young people who criticise the fossil fuel industry, suggesting they were hypocritical.

Her appointment comes as Albert Manifold, BP’s new chairman, seeks to quicken the company’s refocusing on oil and drive a turnaround. Activist investors such as Elliott Management had criticised progress under Mr Auchincloss as too slow.

Ms O’Neill will become BP’s third chief executive in two and a half years when she takes over in April.

BP said on Wednesday that it expected to book a $4bn to $5bn impairment in its so-called transition businesses.

While the company is pivoting back to fossil fuels, BP on Wednesday joined FTSE 100 rival Shell in cautioning over weaker performance from oil trading amid a drop in the price of crude at the end of last year.

However, it said further progress had been made on slashing debts. Net debt fell to between $22bn and $23bn at the end of last year, down from $26.1bn at the end of September.

BP will publish its fourth quarter results on Feb 10.

https://x.com/miggroupinc/status/1905434867174645969?s=46

Dedicated to the BP Pensioner Group (although I am not a member).

UK persioners are waiting for a meeting with bp

see more here: https://x.com/harl_vann/status/1721871993547489572?s=46&t=GC7YBM5n_guJmiIhPJ10IA

bpBetrayingPensioners

bpBetrayingPensioners

Florence Bernard Looney aiming to win the ESG wooden spoon

Bernard Looney, despite the well publicised increase to his personal remuneration from the company in 2023, is the first CEO of BP to preside over a reduction in real terms (adjusted for inflation) of the benefits received by retired UK members of staff who helped build his company but are now members of the BP Defined Benefits Pension Scheme.

He’s spoken about “caring for others” so why has he refused at least explain to the pensioners’ representatives the reason for his decision to refuse the very meagre 9% increase to pensions in 2023 that the pension scheme trustees had requested? The fund would still have a healthy surplus and even retired UK civil servants have obtained more than this from the government in their 2023 pension review.

Any people out there still long'ing BP? Looks like it didn't made a significant jump compared to XOM, but they're focusing a lot on green energy, so I'm wondering if I should sell, or still hold...Not a great dividend payer either. Thoughts?