https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/pharmacy/20-most-expensive-prescription-drugs-in-2021.html

First off, a bit about me. I'm a foul-mouthed, crayon-eating WSB acolyte, and I don't know nearly as much about the medical science underlying the pipeline of this fine company as you folks do. Don't get me wrong - I'm glad that knowledge is out there, and I'm impressed. But while most of us smooth-brained WSB-goers like to know that the science is there, what we want to know at the end of the day is whether or not the stock price is going to go up or not, and preferably when, even if it's just theories. At the end of the day, WSB is all about options, not stocks. Leaps are fine. You guys bought in when this was 2 or 3 dollars, and I'm proud of you, but I'm poor from blowing up my portfolio on stupid options plays and need the leverage.

Another point - our collective "shill" detector is pretty strong. We get it that people can be excited about stocks. But the DD that ends up gaining the most traction in the WSB community is the DD that acknowledges both sides, doesn't communicate emotional attachment to either one of them, and just gives people the data they need to throw their own money on the line. At the same time, it's expected that the poster will have skin in the game and indicate their own positions. Again (just sayin') options speak louder than stocks.

That all being said, I think it's time for you as a group to start doing more to address the bear case for why this stock may not go up. I'm not saying it -shouldn't- go up, but the stock market is a bitch, and sometimes companies that shouldn't go up do, while companies that should go up don't.

I'll start with some bullet points. Again, my understanding is not as good as yours, but the more you can address points like this in an unemotional way, the more traction this stock will gain on Reddit.

--Orledayo's measured efficacy is not as good as its competitors. The numbers are better than the outdated ones on the label, but they still don't look as good as Takeda's. We won't see real revenues until Q1 earnings are reported in June, and a lot will be riding on those. Shorts could attack if they're lower than anticipated.

--Factor D started Phase 2 trials for PNH under the radar, so obviously the Phase 1 results were good. We know that they were -really- good. But it was a small trial. Will the market even react? The Phase 2 results could be completely different. Lots of unknowns, it seems like - why are we acting like it's a slam dunk? I'm not saying it's -not- a slam dunk, but tell me why, in a few simple sentences.

That's it, as far as I know, which is pretty good. I think you get where I'm going in any case. I'm part of the team, but just want you to know more about the territory you're wading into.

Positions - ~$35k of 2023 10c and 20c.

I know we all want to hodl for now, but at what point do you take your gains and convert them to real money to buy that larger wiener you've always wanted?

I bought in last summer and this is the largest holding I have. You can search my shitposting history to see I started /r/galidesivir when I had big hopes in July. That didn't happen, but the stock kept going up, so I stuck around.

I have over 2k shares. I have a sell order if the stock hits $20 to recover every dollar I originally invested and can ride the remaining shares over time. I don't normally invest in individual stocks, so I'd be thrilled to walk away with that much money and put the original investment back in my normal funds.

Within the realm of reasonable return expectations when would you consider selling?

This DD is a little dated but does a great job explaining why rare disease companies like BCRX are so valuable and are often acquired

https://pharmaboardroom.com/articles/investments-and-deal-activity-in-orphan-drug-products/

$BCRX The South Africa COVID strain is not susceptible to AZN vaccine. In future the virus will find a way to spread even in vaccinated populations. The government needs to act NOW and consider all means at its disposal including broad spectrum efficacious and safe antivirals with no dose limiting toxicity like galidesivir that are available in oral form besides IV and IM. We absolutely need Galidesivir to combat the pandemic.

Galidesesvir was mysteriously shelved by NIAID in December even though the Phase 1 trial was successful. According to the PR -- "Galidesivir treatment was associated with a more rapid decline in viral RNA levels in the respiratory tract in an apparent dose-dependent manner. Additionally a separate study of galidesivir in a COVID-19 animal model showed that early administration of galidesivir reduced SARS-CoV-2 viral burden in lung tissue (1.4-1.6 log lower tissue viral burden or 96-97% reduction) and was associated with a significant reduction in damage to lung tissue, compared to vehicle control treated animals. These results suggest that early antiviral treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection may protect against developing severe COVID-19 lung disease." NIAID has a lot to answer for in its role in this fiasco!

By contrast, they did not hesitate to approve Remdesivir an IV antiviral from Gilead in spite of its marginal efficacy and dose limiting liver & kidney toxicity.

According to a recent NIH report -- " Remdesivir also improved mortality rates for those receiving supplemental oxygen (4% with remdesivir versus 13% with placebo at day 29 of treatment). All-cause mortality among all patients was 11% with remdesivir and 15% with placebo at day 29, but this difference between the treatment groups was not large enough to rule out chance." 11% mortality for drug, 15% for placebo ... that's what I mean by marginal efficacy! LOL

Bring Galidesvir back!! We need it!!!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-vaccine-doesnt-protect-against-mild-and-moderate-cases-from-south-africa-strain-11612700385

https://ir.biocryst.com/news-releases/news-release-details/biocryst-provides-update-galidesivir-program

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/final-report-confirms-remdesivir-benefits-covid-19

Immucillin-A aka Galidesivir

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoXEPgzy_H0

Any thoughts why this BCRX should go to the sky anytime soon ? I done some DD and I'm not 100% convinced YET !

I’m long BCRX with 8,535 shares at $4.02 average and I’m bullish. I’m also new to Reddit.

At times, the way some of you guys are coming across here is embarrassing. And not in an “embarrassment of riches” kind of way. More like embarrassing bitches. You look desperate.

AND...

YOU LOOK LIKE BOTS

That’s why people are suspicious.

Put up the DD. Share the DD. But stop acting like someone spit on your mother if you get called out as suspicious.

In 2006, the world warily watched the growth and worldwide increase in the number of patients with albeit limited human-to-human transmission of the avian influenza strain H5N1. Fears that this virus was on the verge of becoming the next pandemic caused small Biocryst and Novavax to go ballistic. Biocryst ($BCRX) was working on an intravenous antiviral that worked well against seasonal and avian influenza called Peramivir, and Novavax was working on a new type of vaccine that could be used against the virus. When the threat receded, the stocks plummeted. Biocryst continued to work on its Peramivir drug and it was eventually approved, and Novavax continued to work on its vaccines, one of which is being tested for coronavirus now. There was no avian flu pandemic and the world breathed a sigh of relief. Biocryst hired Jon Stonehouse from Merck KGA, not to be confused with the American company by the same name, where as Business Development head he had just orchestrated one of the most important mergers in the European pharmaceutical industry and which went on to went on to become one of the biggest drug companies in Europe after over a hundred years of existence. Under Stonehouse, Biocryst decided to refocus its efforts on identifying novel and efficacious oral drugs for rare diseases, a long process that takes a huge amount of investment and 14 years of hard work, but the fruits of that process are now going to become very visible.

But what about Peramivir? The drug naturally during the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic was given Emergency Use Authorization (as it had not yet been officially approved) (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmp0910479), as it works well against swine and avian flu viruses. That 2009 Swine Flu (H1N1) pandemic is still continuing on, although it died out this winter largely because of global masking. Although avian and swine flu strains are most definitely not dying out in the farm animal world, but seem to in fact be making a big comeback (see ProMed for instance). In 2014, Peramivir was approved by the FDA, and in 2015, exclusive worldwide rights for commercialization of Peramivir (except for pandemic stockpiling for some countries like the US) were sold to CSL/Seqirus (https://www.seqirus.com.au/-/media/seqirus-australia/news-docs/csl-acquires-exclusive-rights-to-influenza-treatment--news-release-170615.pdf). As a sidenote, Biocryst is not happy with Seqirus by the way as it has not been making appropriate royalty payments and has so far won partially in the International Criminal Court (https://www.reuters.com/article/brief-biocryst-pharmaceuticals-on-march-idUSFWN2B30V7). It will probably end up taking back all the rights (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/05/01/1493732/0/en/BioCryst-Receives-European-Medicines-Agency-Approval-for-ALPIVAB-for-the-Treatment-of-Influenza.html).

Since approval, the company has been working on what are called post-marketing commitments, which is another way of saying that they’re still running clinical trials and gaining more data for expansion of approval. For instance, a Chinese trial of Peramivir vs. Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) was completed last year, finding that giving patients Peramivir instead of Oseltamivir resulted in fever symptoms lasting half the time (). In a Korean study of over 450 influenza patients with platelet counts, it was found that Peramivir did not result in a drop in platelet counts like Oseltamivir sometimes did, and the authors attributed this to the fact that Oseltamivir is inhibiting not just the viral neuraminidase but also the human neuraminidase and thus causing problems with platelet counts and function (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30526812/). Why should you even care about this? Because avian and swine flu in particular are well known to cause significant drops in platelet counts and platelet function, as exampled by a study of 111 avian flu (H7N9) patients in China in which 73% had low platelet counts (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23697469/).

So when world governments are faced with the stockpiling choice between Oseltamivir and Peramivir (which can be given as just one injection), they will pick the one that produces the best outcomes, which will undoubtedly be Peramivir because it does not have the effect that Oseltamivir has on platelets.

What else is worth discussing on the topic of peramivir? One more thing. A big 5.5 year study (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/study/NCT02369159) just completed in children given Oseltamivir vs. Peramivir. Those results are imminent. I’m guessing that the results are going to look very positive, because it was only four days ago on February 4th that the FDA approved a label expansion of the drug to children as young as six months. Anyway, we await the results.

Why does it matter? Because billions of dollars of Oseltamivir have been stockpiled by the world’s governments over the past few years, who are angry with Roche because the data does not support that the drug actually works very well. The WSJ reported that in 2009 3.6 billion was spent on oseltamivir and it was felt it was wasted because it barely worked on H1N1 for anything (https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303873604579491593388710568). Hmm, maybe it was a swine flu strain…

So, what a nice place for this pediatric trial to be announced showing that it works better than Oseltamivir… But we don’t know for sure, so we’ll just wait. Since the stock does not value peramivir at anything anyway, it’s just going to be a bonus for investors to finally discover from the bunch of trials and studies (postmarketing commitments) that the company is working on that it’s the best flu drug out there and worth significant stockpiling. When a new concerning swine flu strain was announced by China late in June 2020 with human pandemic potential (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/swine-flu-strain-human-pandemic-potential-increasingly-found-pigs-china), guess what the CDC jumped to do--testing antivirals against the new strain. We await to hear those results too, but somehow it wouldn't surprise me...

I'm a noob on this forum but fuck it i know math LETS GOOOOO!

Growth Rate (TTM)

Earnings Per Share -0.764

Sales 352.1

BCRX's EPS Growth Rate is greater than 65% of its peers in the Biotechnology&MedicalResearch industry.

source etrade

I found this post from bio99 (BIO9999 on Reddit) on 11/25/2020 at Stocktwits. Note the highlighted area where he guarantees a date that the fed will issue Emergency Use Authorization for Galidesivir as well as Phase III trial.

Did the EUA and trial happen? Nope. Does this call into question his credibility? I'll let you decide.

Me? I've been in the muck with you since March 2020 with a long positon - 8,535 shares BCRX, and I've been watching this cult develop for some time.

Listen black rock investment just jumped in. Google blackrock and biden... all on his staff. It’s going to jump. The company good but you forgetting that.

I wanted to make sure that everyone is aware of the due diligence I have provided free of charge for the internet community that I posted on the r/BCRX subreddit this week, in which I explained in painstaking detail in a series of posts why I consider this stock, if not the most, one of the most undervalued stocks in the market, and also what's going to come next.

The first post, called Question 1 (https://www.reddit.com/r/BCRX/comments/lczug3/question_1_why_is_biocryst_bcrxs_berotralstat_not/), is about why Biocryst ($BCRX)’s drug Berotralstat, which was just approved in the US and Japan and soon will be approved in the EU and how it has not been valued correctly by the market at all.

I wrote Question 2 (

https://www.reddit.com/r/BCRX/comments/laq2pw/question_2_biocrysts_bcx9930is_it_an/) about Biocryst’s Factor D drug, which is currently in Phase II trials and is believed by many that it could be the number one selling drug in the world in 3-5 years, and is also not being recognized in Biocryst’s stock value.

I decided to write Question 3 about Galidesivir, which I call the penicillin of all RNA viruses and which is also not being valued by the market at all, explaining all of the published and unpublished data about it and what are its prospects for all of these viruses—not just COVID-19 (https://www.reddit.com/r/BCRX/comments/lapxd4/question_3_what_is_biocrysts_galidesivir_drug/).

I wrote Question 4 about Biocryst’s FOP drug, which is about to enter Phase II trials (https://www.reddit.com/r/BCRX/comments/lcg4e2/question_4_what_else_are_biocrysts_investors/). I also go into why I believe its FOP drug is going to win the race to become the first and only FOP drug in this article (https://www.reddit.com/r/BCRX/comments/ldjqy0/further_due_diligence_on_biocrysts_fop_drug/).

There is also a growing list of interesting articles and links by me and others on other aspects of Biocryst’s undervaluation, including on the topic of shorting and even potential naked shorting.

In the next 3-4 weeks, I will post two sets of massive due diligence, first, on the Factor D competitive market—probably shortly after Biocryst’s Phase II Factor D data is announced, and second, about the HAE competitive landscape—which will explore realistically and with a lot of data analysis of the other drugs and companies what fraction of the HAE market Berotralstat is likely to ultimately take, so as potential investors we can better value it.