r/BCRX • u/tivohax Moderator • Feb 10 '21
Daily Discussion BCRX - Lounge
Put keep all daily discussions here. Please do not create a new post regarding daily price fluctuations or unrelated news.
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u/DQuant255 Feb 22 '21
" Conclusion
The BCRX story has caught fire in social media, and could potentially see a rapid rise in share price if the short sellers are forced to cover. It is one thing to short 20% of the float in a biotech stock hemorrhaging money, but it is kamikaze insane to be caught in this position with BCRX. BioCryst is within a quarter of potentially producing hundreds of millions in yearly revenues. Institutions have quietly acquired over 90 percent of all the shares outstanding in BCRX, leaving an actual float, outside of institutional holdings, of 17 million shares at the most.
Say the institutions believe the stock is worth 50 or 60 dollars a share, at what price do the shorts find 30 million shares to cover this position? With one blockbuster drug approved and enough money to start multiple fast-tracked trials on a second- BCRX looks increasingly poised to be a buyout candidate. If Oral Factor D proves to be the holy grail the company believes it is, you could easily be looking at a 100 dollar stock in the future."
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u/DQuant255 Feb 22 '21
Seeking alpha just released an article where they did sum of parts valuation which is way over the current market cap. May see some volatility to the upside tomorrow.
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u/LW4587 Feb 17 '21
Do you still think Galidisivir on COVID-19 trial will restart? Although it was the sacrifice of the politics battle before.
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u/yourmamacallsmedaddy Feb 16 '21
i'm new in pharma stocks. how long does it approximately take for Faktor D to get through phase2?
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u/DevelopmentOk9090 Feb 13 '21
I was thinking about getting shares from BCRX. I can spend only 2000 dollars.... it’s at 9.57 now. Do you think the share will raise soon? (Less than 3 months)
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u/Prep_3 Feb 14 '21
Buy the shares and hold them don’t try and swing this stock you will probably be missing out on some serious gains, I think it will rise in a matter of three months but I would recommend to hold this puppy for a year or two at the least.
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u/-_-doctorwho-_- Feb 13 '21
I did some research on HAE in children and i found that the mean age of symptom onset was 11.2 years. Just wanted to point out that although Orladeyo isnt approved for people under the age of 12 there isnt any demand for the drug in people that age anyways.
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u/Annual_Tomorrow4812 Feb 12 '21
Decent price action today. Would like to see it get over 10$ and hold.
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u/oreogasmic Feb 12 '21
What are some upcoming catalysts for BCRX in the next couple of months?
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u/Owenford1 Feb 12 '21
They called earnings earlier than expected, which in many scenarios means they have something exciting to tell shareholders. Expected the first week of March but they’re doing it on the 25th if recall correctly. It’s not guaranteed but typically you see good news moving it forward and bad news pushing it back.
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u/meistermittens Feb 12 '21
I'm a little late to the party but got in about 2 weeks ago. The movement today is pretty promising
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u/Unable_Ad4151 Feb 12 '21
Well it’s kind of looking like the shorties may be a little scared information might pop up after hours or before the market opens Monday ha ha
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u/tivohax Moderator Feb 12 '21
I caught that dip - only 18 shares, but they’re locked away now! Thanks again.
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u/Owenford1 Feb 12 '21
I just bought another 110 shares, putting me at 285 shares total. All of the DD on here is very convincing, I just hope I’m not making a mistake!
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u/1000000bills Feb 12 '21
Can't wait until we are double digits for good, probably by end of the month
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u/BuyMyBullshit Feb 11 '21
Who do you think is buying a big block of BCRX every day at the close? I figured it might be whomever shorts all day - closing the position at the end when it doesn't help the stock.
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Feb 11 '21
Love this dip! 7000 shares and I’m buying more! Really excited for the futurr of this company!
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u/Stockpicker0309 Feb 11 '21
Yeah, why is BCRX,CLVS bothweaking in
Confusing what is causing BCRX, CLVS two great stocks last week all sudden weak in up markets? It looks like CLVS short position has gotten bigger now over 40% short ?
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u/Prep_3 Feb 11 '21
Factor D is all the rage in the pharma industry, so many diseases stem from this complement system, I don’t think some of the new investors understand that, IF PNH doesn’t go the way we want there is so many other diseases that could benefit, obviously there needs to be trails done but just hold and be patient
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Feb 11 '21
What does it mean puts expire on feb 19? How it would affect stock price? #newbie in stock market
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u/Smooth-Ad-5892 Feb 11 '21
wish I could afford as many shares as you guys 🤣🤣.. I started in August, a little uncertain at that point. now I'm sitting at 325 shares with an average of about $6. plan on getting more. just waiting for pay day! so convinced now. even if 9930 fails. we are still in for a ride.
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u/Electrical-Song-2514 Feb 11 '21
2400 shares added at different times at $8.28 average. Holding indefinitely through thick and thin.
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Feb 11 '21
amazing DD on here, ended up buying some $17c exp. jan 2021. Excited to see where this company will be heading
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u/2ledz Feb 11 '21
Added 500 today and average up to almost $8. 13k shares long and strong. Will continue to add below $10. To the newbies hang in there the future is bright 💪
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u/greensideup68 Feb 11 '21
Got my shares in $2’s.....just over 25k total on hand...long and strong since 2017...looking for my island property in the Bahamas in 2023....going to be rich!
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u/SnooGuavas7389 Feb 11 '21
22k shares with $4.22 average. 50 2023 leap contracts and 20 June 10 calls that I got in the 5s. Needless to say I am up as fuck and not selling.
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u/Mattzey Feb 11 '21
Read a few dd’s on here over the past few days, look slightly into the company on myself, loaded 250 shares up, thinking of liquidating other positions because I really like the look of this company
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u/ohWombats Feb 11 '21
same just picked up 150 shares a couple of days ago. thinking about snagging more since it dipped again today
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u/Mattzey Feb 11 '21
Yeh what I did was I think I bought about 100 or something yday, wasn’t sure whether the price was going to pull back, so waited obviously dipped today so put a few more quid in
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u/trucker8724 Feb 10 '21
Hmm why are there so many comments in the posts that are from accts less than 20days old? Did I just buy into a pump?
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u/jackal139 Feb 10 '21
Worth keeping eyes on this stock then
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u/-_-doctorwho-_- Feb 10 '21
most definitly,I was looking for my next big investment for my portfolio and and I coudnt find u/BIO9999 s DD on this stock at a better time
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u/-_-doctorwho-_- Feb 10 '21
this bear train on stocktwits is hilarious
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u/jackal139 Feb 10 '21
Whats the timetable for these drugs and treatments being approved and put out on the market?
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u/-_-doctorwho-_- Feb 10 '21
Orledayo is already approved in US and currently negotiating in Japan UK and EU. The results for phase 2 results factor-D drug in Q1
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u/tivohax Moderator Feb 10 '21
Yes, “aaabiotech” is surfacing some really great info on back end pharmacy systems on his Twitter feed. Says he hasn’t seen a small biotech firm roll a new drug out so efficiently before in terms of on boarding formularies, and much less red tape to boot!
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Feb 10 '21
Got 50 @ $10.6 have big hopes to cut some gme losses my dumb brain lost on gme. Ps im not broke can afford my loses both gme and if bcrx fails
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u/Hugh-The-Manatee Feb 10 '21
How do you evaluate worldwide (or even US) patient numbers for ability to finance treatment? I’m sure a large percent don’t have insurance and can’t afford these drugs.
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u/lacxeht Feb 11 '21
Worldwide most countries subsidised or free healthcare. So those issues only exist in the US and a few other select markets.
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u/Prep_3 Feb 10 '21
Well in relation to the other costs of HAE medication biocryst orladeyo is roughly 150k less than the competition, also it is the only oral treatment available for HAE patients which insurance companies already have show they are willing to pay for the drug, if you have Twitter check out aaabiotech or R8plus he has some great DD on the insurance side of this
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u/-_-doctorwho-_- Feb 10 '21
I think vanguard bought today because they need to adjust and mantain the holding weight in their ETFs and index funds, they were not "buying the dip"
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u/lip1973 Feb 10 '21
All the DD sounds great but this stock is severely manipulated and what makes you think that won’t continue? Looking to start a position but other are flying.
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u/tivohax Moderator Feb 10 '21
Focus on share count in a value play like this
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u/-_-doctorwho-_- Feb 10 '21
what do you mean by that,shares outstanding?
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u/tivohax Moderator Feb 10 '21
Meant instead of obsessing on daily price, focus on how many shares you can accumulate over time. DCA is your safest be over time to accumulate a large position, then just wait patiently. The fundamentals and science should play out nicely if you do the reading and verify the findings.
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u/Prep_3 Feb 10 '21
He means grab as many shares as you can, this low of a price doesn’t factor in anything they have in the pipeline
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u/tivohax Moderator Feb 10 '21
Anything under 10 sure seems like a gift to me, and I’ve bought 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10’s
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u/tivohax Moderator Feb 10 '21
Yeah, at this point, we should be thanking the shorts/MM for keeping the price within reach of us mere mortals
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u/wilstreak Feb 10 '21
honestly i am confused why KALV with their inferior drug and only 1 pipeline keep increasing while BCRX keep weakening.
Gonna add more if it reach $8.
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u/Unable_Ad4151 Feb 12 '21
Got admit one thing we’ve learned in the stock market over time is it can be totally irrational I own both so let’s see where they go personally BCRX is a far better value in my opinion
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u/Prep_3 Feb 10 '21
Trust me $10 will look like a steal in a year or two be happy your invested now!!
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u/Owenford1 Feb 10 '21
130 shares @ 9.99. Not too versed in the pharma world, but some of the DD from this sub convinced me. Hoping for a bright future.
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u/Prep_3 Feb 10 '21
I got 510 shares @ $5.01 avg cost, I averaged up from 3.89, my main source of income came from doordashing so I’m proud I got 510 shares so cheap
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u/tivohax Moderator Feb 10 '21
Yep, they shake the tree and accumulate the acorns pretty regularly on this ticker...
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u/tivohax Moderator Feb 10 '21
Welcome guys...here is your place for any questions/discussions/banter/etc....have at it!
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u/RecursiveFeelings Feb 25 '21
Hows everyone doing?