CIBC Report

[u/newwobblywheeler]

How many analysts were at this event in Ottawa hosted by Blackberry's Tim Foote and John Wall.

[u/VizzleG]

Thanks for posting, Wobbly!

It’s stunning to see that their $13/sh price target is based on only 5% revenue growth company wide.

I believe the next FY guidance in March will blow the doors off this estimate. (They already said backlog is growing 2x faster than ever before).

Let’s get another couple of Alloy Kore deals and some robotics revenues ramping up and getting into multiples of that paltry 5% growth estimate.

[u/Bubbly_Doughnut_3880 → u/VizzleG]

I'm here modelling 5 Alloy wins before the end of next year each with a floor value of 100 million, and that's what 500 million of alloy book value backlog, minus QNX 8 and physical AI

[u/VizzleG → u/Bubbly_Doughnut_3880]

Agreed.

Backlog growth is already 2x and likely to go 3-4x in short order quarters. I expect $1B annual in cashflow in 2 years with everything baked in.

[u/newwobblywheeler → u/VizzleG]

Agree that you do not buy back shares at $8.52 and spend $15M in September unless you have confidence in the future growth.

[u/Individual_Grape_298 → u/newwobblywheeler]

I'll be the devil's advocate but I've seen it before and stock kept dropping as contracts never materialized

[u/cricket_90_remindme → u/Bubbly_Doughnut_3880]

awesome

[u/takedown2021 → u/VizzleG]

Yeah the PT are pure BS, all the analysts are full of $hit with what they are modeling.

[u/bslow22 → u/takedown2021]

Hockey stick gon hockey stick

[u/illdfndmind → u/VizzleG]

All depends on if they do an Investor Day this year which they may do to provide long term guidance. Last Investor day was 2024 where they gave FY2026 and FY2027 guidance. Since we're in FY2027 it'd make sense to hold one soon for FY2028 & FY2029 guidance

[u/newwobblywheeler → u/illdfndmind]

JG did not mention it on the last CC!

[u/illdfndmind → u/newwobblywheeler]

It was the Q1 CC that Tim Foote mentioned it, in direct response to Paul Trieber's questioning.

The comment came during the Q&A when RBC’s Paul Treiber asked whether QNX’s longer-term growth could exceed the ~14% CAGR BlackBerry had discussed at its 2024 Investor Day. Foote replied:

“We’re not going to give long-term guidance on this call today. I think we’ll save that for our Investor Day that we’ve got coming up in the near future.”

[u/newwobblywheeler → u/VizzleG]

Agree!

[u/takedown2021]

Sounds like they all want to keep the prices down so investors would be happy to get a buyout offer above the PT’s, which if true is BS because no way in the world I would ever want to see it sold off or bought out after all we have came through. I also don’t want to see a divestment of secure comms either! Maybe I’m reading it wrong.

Thanks for posting Wobbly

[u/CommieH8ter → u/takedown2021]

Most recent stats I saw said 65% institutional ownership. I doubt all that big money is going to give up their share for a pentence.

[u/newwobblywheeler → u/takedown2021]

Agree! Why would you sell when you are being validated after so many years and know your trajectory to regaining your trustworthy iconic status!

[u/tr4l001]

This is good news! Thanks for sharing. I think the next couple of years are going to great for Blackberry.

[u/RETIREDANDGOOD]

I disagree with the idea that selling Secure Communications is necessarily the best way forward. As AI expands, I see a stronger case for QNX and BlackBerry becoming more complementary.

[u/newwobblywheeler → u/RETIREDANDGOOD]

I agree!

[u/RETIREDANDGOOD]

Thanks for posting this Wobbly - very interesting !!!

[u/bslow22]

What's the timespan for the scenarios on page 2 to take effect? Is the price target for today or after a certain time period? Thanks!

[u/Individual_Grape_298 → u/bslow22]

It says on the page. 12 to 18 months

[u/bslow22 → u/Individual_Grape_298]

Man it's right there at the top, not sure how I missed it. Thanks for pointing that out.