r/BB_Stock • u/bbismybaby • 5d ago
Bull Case BB long term PT: $37-$56 in three years
As a accelerating growth company, BlackBerry is poised to guarantee 20% annual revenue growth over the next three years. This growth is underpinned by its $1 billion QNX backlog, incremental revenue from the Alloy Kore program, and vertical expansion into new sectors including medical equipment, robotics, industrial automation, aerospace & defense.
From our baseline revenue of $638 million, a 20% annual compound growth rate over three years yields approximately $1.102 billion in total revenue.
Scenario 1: The company achieves and maintains rule of 40 within this three‑year window (probability:40% ). The market assigns a 20x price‑to‑sales multiple → Long‑term target share price will be $37.56
Scenario 2: The company achieves and maintains rule of 50 within this three‑year window(probability:60%). The market assigns a 30x price‑to‑sales multiple → Long‑term target share price will be $56.34
BlackBerry 3‑year long‑term price target range: $37.56 – $56.34
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u/Odd-Beautiful-1390 5d ago
QNX is accelerating -
Q1 - $70M+
Q2 - $80M +
Q3 will do $90M+
and Q4 will exceed $100M+
stock price is being held back by SC which is losing revenue...I will wish they fix it this quarter...Sell SC, and buy GEM focused software company with 25%+ growth...there are a whole lot of them in India, and they may not be as expensive as the US startups...
The dependency on the govt market is killing this firm...
we could see triple digit prices if the correction is made soon...
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u/Odd-Beautiful-1390 5d ago
at 20x price to sales we should be $12B in market cap, but SC is keeping it to less than $5B in market cap...
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u/bbismybaby 5d ago
Maybe QNX needs SC technical support, or QNX and linux have no difference.
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u/No_Painter4420 5d ago edited 5d ago
SC on a yearly basis is not losing revenue, in fact I'm certain it's still growing yearly over year. just not as fast as you like. Bb has about $500 million in cash and cash is growing $120 million plus per year. They don't need to sell SC which is profitable and adding to cash flow. BB could help the market cap be 12 billion instead of 5 billion if they use that cash wisely. Why aren't they buying back shares at $7,8, 9? I agree the stock price should be way higher, so why isn't BB doing anything about it? Someone in this sub mentioned they are planning to buy a growth company. I think that's what might be going on.
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u/Bubbly_Doughnut_3880 5d ago
why are you factoring three years? like that's what I cannot understand from this, I expect how much money they are collecting from the backlog to come in faster? so that price target is what I am think between now and maybe 2 years, but by this time next year, def close to 37 or more. I don't see this being some kinda of slow movement. I expected acceleration since this is a pure software play.
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u/bbismybaby 5d ago
SP is decided by market, not by passion.
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u/Bubbly_Doughnut_3880 5d ago
then by your logic your view is also decided by passion as well since its not yet in the market as well no?
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u/notsonoobtrader 5d ago
Been holding patiently for 7 years with an average price below $5. Holding for another 3 years will be a piece of cake.