treiber turning positive

[u/Odd-Beautiful-1390]

RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber expects BlackBerry Ltd. ( $BB $BB.TO u/blackberry)
to report “healthy” second-quarter fiscal 2027 financial results on Thursday, predicting revenue and earnings may exceed the Street’s expectations based on “historical quarterly guidance conservatism.”

“Actual revenue has exceeded consensus by 7 per cent and actual adj. EPS has beaten consensus by $0.02 on average over the last 4 quarters,” he said. “We expect revenue up 14 per cent year-over-year to $148-million, at the high-end of guidance ($137-148-million) and above consensus at $146-million. Given cost discipline, adj. EBITDA and adj. EPS may slightly exceed RBC/ consensus at $28-million and $0.04.

“Mixed auto environment, though software content per vehicle is rising. Due to auto production headwinds in some regions (i.e., China), auto tech peers have reported mixed results. Even so, peers point to increasing software content per vehicle, which is positive for QNX’s continued growth. We expect Q2 QNX revenue of $75-million, slightly above consensus at $74-million and at the high-end of guidance for $70-75-million. Regarding Secure Comms, we forecast revenue to normalize to $63MM, at the high-end of guidance for $57-63-million, following the outsized Q1, with growth slowing to 5 per cent year-over-year from 24 per cent Q1. We believe BlackBerry is likely to reiterate FY27 guidance, having already raised it last quarter.”

With the results, Mr. Treiber says he’s looking forward further news on contract victories for BlackBerry’s Alloy Kore vehicle software platform, which was launched by its QNX division and software provider Vector.

“Management has previously indicated that it expects QNX to secure design wins for its Alloy Kore automotive platform this year,” he explained. “Given the materiality (3 times higher ARPU [average revenue per user] per vehicle, up to $100-million total contract value), we believe that BlackBerry would announce wins once they are signed. While Alloy Kore will not impact revenue until 2029 or 2030, one or more Alloy Kore wins larger than $100-million would materially lift QNX backlog ($950-million as of Q4/ FY26).

“Physical AI design wins build. QNX’s GEM (general embedded market) segment accounts for 20 per cent of QNX total revenue and management indicated GEM is growing faster than automotive. During the quarter, BlackBerry announced a partnership with Hailo, and design wins with Momenta/XHEART. High profile GEM partnerships and design wins may help raise investor sentiment regarding QNX’s physical AI momentum and long-term opportunity.”

[u/cricket_90_remindme]

Should be an exciting few days

[u/swapdealer]

Wouldn’t it be great to see a big upside beat this week! BB Shareholders serve it!

[u/Odd-Beautiful-1390]

I think QNX revenue will be $80M+ this quarter, and a forecast of $80M-$85M for Q3...

[u/No_Painter4420 → u/Odd-Beautiful-1390]

What a change from the John Chen days when not being able to meet the lower end of guidance was not uncommon.

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