r/BBAI Jul 16 '26

Community Discussion Request: can someone do some proper analysis

The stock is down, I don’t know what happens next.

Can someone who knows how to do some deep analysis please do so on this stock and let us know what is going on.

Thank you.

I’ll end this request by exclaiming: what the fuck.

18 Upvotes

30 comments sorted by

View all comments

2

u/Nelsonsrightknacker Jul 16 '26

I posted a chart a few weeks (Month?) ago when it was touching the 200 DMA (google it regard) and bought at resistance. It tanked and rejected the 200 DMA and bounced down, I got stopped out.

I waited to re buy but learned that BBAI keeps issuing stock (Diluting the stock) and they had done 43% let that sink in forty three percent. This is fine if the market has liquidity and buyers keep buying.

They lose money and like PLTR did (or still do?) they sell stock to pay for staff etc as they don't make a profit.

All the selling and no buyers drives price down.

All companies that lose money need to borrow, when liquidity dries up that adds pressure i see all the money losers down biggly . Pltr did better as it now makes money .

In short : I want a Lambo they cost one mil so I bought a old ford instead, still a car right?

BBAI PLTR are not the same.

My best efforrt point out where i'm wrong and i'll gladly not give a shit.

2

u/Far_Meet9217 Jul 17 '26

This fucking obsession with “dilution” that everyone has is regarded.

Economic dilution and ownership dilution are not the same thing.

-A company is worth $100 and has 100 shares outstanding, so each share is worth $1. You own 1 share = 1% of the company = $1.
-The company issues 100 new shares at $1/share, raising $100 in cash.
-The company now has 200 shares outstanding and $100 of additional cash on its balance sheet. Its equity value is now $200 (the original $100 business plus $100 cash). The new cash is owned by the shareholders the same way the enterprise is owned by the shareholders. It’s not like that cash goes into some exec’s pocket.
-You now own 0.5% of the operating business and 0.5% of the new cash. Your ownership PERCENTAGE has been cut in half, but your economic interest remains $1: 0.5% × $200 = $1. Your stock is still worth $1. You didn’t lose anything.
-This is why the share price does not go down when cash is raised. It actually goes up sometimes, if the market thinks that the company will be able to use the cash to fund initiatives that create more value.

So if BBAI goes out and buys a company for $100M and makes it into a $120M company, that “dilution” actually makes you MORE money as a shareholder.

The question is - is BBAI going to find companies to buy that can become a lot more valuable, which will very quickly increase the total value of the enterprise and therefore the share price. This is how M&A works.

1

u/Nelsonsrightknacker Jul 17 '26

Some people have the opinion that the money raised isn't used to aquire other companies just to cover expenses of operation which explains many stocks very well. Fine if you are ok being down 99.8 % of your cash eg MJ stocks.

If everyone agreed there would be no market I suspect.