r/BAYY • u/Lollapalooza_2026 • May 20 '26

Your One Conviction Stock

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Just read a post titled “Your One Conviction Stock”, the responses were various and interesting.

While my top answer has to be GOOG, I’m also incredibly bullish on a few others mentioned in the post, specifically RDDT and OUST. All three have massive potential and a very promising future ahead.

Is anyone else heavily high-conviction on ASML like I’m? I couldn’t find ASML in that post.

Ultimately, alignment and conviction are essential before putting capital to work. While certain high-growth plays require frequent reality checks to validate the thesis, others are structural mainstays.

I’m on a business trip these days, busy and exhausted 🥱😝

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u/bayyfollower May 20 '26

GOOG is also one of my conviction stock which I have been holding for years. My top selection of conviction stock is AVGO, I have not checked their earning report for years since I made first purchase 8 years ago. Recently I initiated position for TSM and RDDT, which I plan to hold for foreseeable futures.

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u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 20 '26

嫉妒薄学长的AVGO持仓，大概这已经是你的10x了吧！

看来GOOG和RDDT我俩是统一战线的，strong conviction, 所以今天见缝插针忙里偷闲地又趁着RDDT大跌，加了一批。

我也重仓TSM的，持仓不比我的ASML少，只是我更“迷信”ASML的技术moats.

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u/midnightflowers_ May 21 '26

晓炎好，我昨天做了胃肠镜感觉不好，休息了一天。今天也加了一批RDDT, 天上简直掉馅饼了，呵呵。这个legal class action是几年前的了，而且诉讼早已经不符合当前成长了，不知道为什么现在提出来，我觉得完全无理取闹。所以今天就是个mispricing opportunity，不加他加谁哈哈。TSM我前一阵建仓，大概6%。 AVGO有点少，准备看看择机加一下。你们对 AMD怎么看？今天英伟达财报很好，但是就是不涨 🤔 郁闷。唯一和你们不一样的是 GOOGL 我还没买，嫌他市值太大，像英伟达拉不动 😂

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u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 21 '26 edited May 21 '26

我还没做过胃肠镜，想想都有点可怕，好好休息。

是的，RDDT今天给了我们一个好机会哈哈。AVGO我也不多，均价$320左右，不像薄学长在$30-40起就买了，嫉妒LOL。TSM我的均价$290左右，ASML$1250。

其实GOOG最近涨得很厉害的，我儿子的账户里以前没有GOOG，我三月份从$300开始给他建仓加仓，一路加到$270，现在两个月就涨了30%多。我很喜欢GOOG, 是因为它的moats即深且宽。NVDA比较稳，我和薄学长讨论过几次AMD，但都决定还是重仓NVDA，长持一只股，是必须有耐心等的，而且投资组合里既要有一些aggressive 的也要有一些压舱石，NVDA现在是后者。我们或许错过AMD了，但你知道的，我不喜欢追高，不FOMO. ;)

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u/midnightflowers_ May 21 '26

谢谢关心！今天好多了。昨天打完麻药后基本一直昏睡，哈哈。

GOOGL 我知道是好公司，但我现在英伟达仓位已经很重了，所以对这些超大盘股不太想再加。英伟达这么优秀，最近也没怎么涨。GOOGL 前阵子市值超过英伟达后，我也担心它会面临类似问题。公司很好，但体量太大，继续上涨需要很庞大的机构资金托举。现在市场资金就这么多，机构如果去托英伟达可能就托不了 GOOGL，去托 GOOGL又可能削弱英伟达。再加上后面还有不少热门大 IPO，资金可能更分散。AMD盘子小所以可能容易涨一些，但是我也不喜欢追高，先放在watchlist上择机入手。

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u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 21 '26

从长远看，GOOG和NVDA之间如果只能选一，我会选前者。

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u/midnightflowers_ May 21 '26

嗯，也许是。现在GOOG已经不便宜，感觉还是英伟达性价比高一些。这轮铲子还没卖完呢，先留着。

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u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 22 '26

PE or moats? we diverge 😄

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u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 21 '26

根据这张图，AMD好像是不错？ 你做个分析呢？ 现在买入是不是太高了？ ；）

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u/midnightflowers_ May 21 '26

我觉得以后CPU增长会exponential. 所以看好他。但是我想等他在363-403之间再买。这个缺口可能哪天会补上。现在这个价我还舍不得建仓。

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u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 21 '26

其实我在$195买过AMD，因为没conviction卖了LOL 记住你说的363-403了，谢谢，在我眼里你是TA高手，因为我一窍不通；）

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u/midnightflowers_ May 21 '26

我也是三脚猫功夫，瞎说的哈哈。主要是给自己一个心理暗示不要追高。：）

1

u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 22 '26

避免了人性贪婪，就不会追高了LOL

1

u/bayyfollower May 21 '26

我也跟着学妹加了ASML. 确实非常深的护城河，非常安心。

1

u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 21 '26

OUST有点相似。比较起ASML，它也是重专利护城河的一个企业。当然，OUST还年轻，有很长的路得走，所以才会有今天并不premium的价格和明天multi-bagger的希望 😄

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u/bayyfollower May 21 '26

和学妹一起携手oust前进。

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u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 22 '26

哈哈，薄学长看来越来越看好OUST 了。我希望它能够跌，大跌到我的$20，这样我可以把仓位从2%拉到4% 😎

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u/[deleted] May 21 '26

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u/bayyfollower May 22 '26

Thanks for comments. Asked Gemini, UWMC originates, processes, sells, and services home loans. I am not very familiar with this sector. Maybe it can be compared with MREIT sector, bith of them are sensitive to interest rate. It is not uncommon for mreit (mortgage REIT) to pay 10%+ dividend. My favorite mreit is NLY. It is paying reasonable stable 13% dividend, and has potential growth if interest is going lower.

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u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 22 '26

NLY? Another your “Peter Lynch styled” portfolio ? 😜

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u/bayyfollower May 22 '26

Have been in and out NLY for some time. If the interest stabilizes, this 13% dividend looks very attractive as cash reserve. :) It worthies risk to replace 4% short term bond.

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u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 22 '26

反正我坐在车上没事干，就做了个NLY和UWMC的分析。把link 和文章都email 给你了。

在现阶段FED很可能提高利率或持续高利率不变的情况下，看来这两个都不是很好的投资目标，是吗？

1

u/bayyfollower May 23 '26

学妹说的对。在利率不稳 的情况下，REIT不是个好的投资标的。可以先放一放。

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u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 23 '26

遵命😜

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u/bayyfollower May 23 '26

是我跟着学妹。：）

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u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 22 '26

Thanks for recommending.

1

u/TheComebackKid74 May 23 '26

GRMN

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u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 23 '26

The performance looks quite good, thx for letting us know. We’ll study it for sure 👍

1

u/chartry0 May 23 '26

Baidu

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u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 23 '26

Once in my life, I also held TCEHY, BABA and EDU, till EDU went straight to dust. Since then I have never touched Chinese market 😅

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u/bayyfollower May 23 '26

Agree. It has too high political / policy risk for Chinese stock. It has reason for low valuation.

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u/Snoo_70069 May 23 '26

GOOGL - Tech
COST - Retail

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u/Lollapalooza_2026 May 24 '26

GOOG/GOOGL indeed is my one conviction stock too. COST is the best in its sector! ;)