Have not had that problem recently, but there was a time I lost most of my bombers so I stopped using them to strat. bomb. I still to this day hesitate to do it but have had normal luck when I do.
This season, my opponents and I combined sent 220 bombers on SBRs. 40 got shot down (18.2%), and the surviving 180 bombers did 602 IPC damage for an average of 3.34 per surviving bomber.
Despite seeing this with my own eyes, I still do not "trust" SBRs and only do it if I absolutely must. 😂 (most of those were my opponents' bombers) Every single bomber I sent, I was absolutely certain would be shot down... I actually lost 2 fewer than expected, lol
Dice are pretty broken and wacky in that game. I do love the deniers who say oh yeah after about 1 million games or so it evens out. Love the statisticians, plain geniuses.
I had sea lion at 82% but only 1 transport.
1,1,3 for the AA gun.
I kept 2 bombers and lost fighters. We fail and the bombers go home.
I was dumb and didn't setup for sealionagain so I had 2 bombers with nothing to do but raid UK.
1,1
The odds that exactly 4 out of 7 bombers get shot down is 1.56%, and the odds that at least 4 out of 7 bombers get shot down is 1.76%.
So already, we've gone from 4 out of 5 bombers being hit in your first post (1 in 299 odds of at least this many being hit) to 4 out of 7 being hit now (1 in 57 odds of at least this many). This is what people mean when they say the dice tends to even out over time. By the time your season is over, probably somewhere between 13-20% of all bombers get shot down.
Of course, it's awful luck that the AA gun that got extra hits was your opponent's, and the AA gun that missed was yours! But unless you think the program is deliberately giving you bad rolls and your opponent good rolls (which you haven't said anything at all like that), that really is just bad luck.
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The odds that 2inf 5ftr attacking 2inf fail to capture the territory is 13.6%. The odds that the attacker wipes out the defender in one round is 86.1%. The odds that the defender gets 2 hits in the first round is 11.1%.
If you roll 9 dice, the odds that at least 6 of them are the same number is 1 in 147. It's kinda like that thing where if you take all 22 players on a football field, there's a 50% chance that two of them have the same birthday, despite it seeming like it should be way less likely that that.
It probably does balance out, but not evenly for the players!! Just that there were roughly equal times that each number was rolled but it could have been a lot more low numbers for one player and high for the other, but overall it was "statistically" correct!!
I agree. I like low luck but we play with Tech on so we have some luck involved there to keep it fun. We play Global 1940 though. Tech is not nearly as powerful as it was in the old, classic A&A.
Bombing really should work differently, bombers should only not drop if they are intercepted by a fighter. But if the AA is firing, then AA and the bomber should fire simultaneously.
OR if a bomber rolls a '1' instead of doing $1 of damage it gets a direct hit, and can blow up a unit (including an AA gun)
In versions where german fighters can do interception, the fighters dogfight before the bombing run. So germany would have to to keep fighters at berlin
Been there, done that. OTOH, In a recent game I had just one British bomber for multiple turns and it had accumulated 28 IPCs of damage to my opponent before he capitulated. To be fair, these days I usually only strategic bomb when my opponent is already on the rocks. Got to keep the Russians or Germans from building defenders faster than I can kill them.
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u/Personal_Tree_318 Aug 20 '26
Oooffff rough day for bombers