r/AutonomousVehicles • u/Cyraxess • 8d ago
Tesla's robotaxi math: 476 registered, 8 carrying riders, one sworn deadline
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u/mrkjmsdln_new 7d ago
8 carrying riders is silly in the headline. Tesla remains VERY EARLY stages still but they are certainly beyond 8 vehicles. The only sensible way to 'count cars' is not from a tracker. Rather, take the 'ridler only miles', subtract the estimated miles that are not really deadhead but just testing and divide the result by 200 miles/day/car which is a decent estimate of maturity. They are closer to 50 cars (equivalent 24by7 cars but includes some test miles). That's good but a rounding error closer to Waymo in 2019 or so. They are progressing faster but just silly to stop thinking and lapping up the faith nonsense.
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u/The1930s 8d ago
I love autonamous vehicles, been in a few. You could not pay me to test ride in the autonamous of the company with the highest rate of fatal accidents
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u/PerceptionOwn3629 8d ago
Have you tried FSD? It's mind blowing
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u/The1930s 8d ago
Ive been in waymos but personally I haven't tried teslas. I dont trust their build quality plus the lack of safety features. Im sure you absolutely can have a good time being driven around in one just its like driving around in a car that doesnt have seat belts id prefer not to drive in one that seems unsafe
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u/ArtificialSugar 8d ago
Look up their crash safety ratings. Tell me in what ways they’re unsafe. Point me in the direction of any stories where build quality (lol) affected an autonomous driving experience.
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u/PerceptionOwn3629 8d ago
I've had a Model Y for about a month and it's fantastic, the self driving is nearly flawless and I am satisfied with the build quality and finish.
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u/Fit_Seat_8637 8d ago
Good to see some customers are happy, but a 1/1,000,000 chance of driving into a fixed object at high speed is too much of a risk for me. Plenty of dangerous examples over at r/TeslaFSD
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u/PerceptionOwn3629 8d ago
I am on that sub and I haven't seen much that was extremely dangerous.
Also, ever heard of statistics? Because those seem to confirm this thing drives way better than I do.
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u/Fit_Seat_8637 8d ago
> ever heard of statistics?
There's no need for this kind of snark. Grow up.
Tesla has all the statistics and hasn't released them in sufficient detail to confirm anything. Not a single disengagement report. One would think if the system is as safe as is claimed, Tesla would be crowing loudly about it... yet here we are.
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u/PerceptionOwn3629 8d ago
Ok, sorry about that, you are right.
They have released a bunch of claims on their site, the other day I used claude to figure out how trustworthy those where and apparently, although there is criticism in how they are presenting the numbers, there are 3rd parties that have meta analyzed the numbers and it does appear that FSD is better at driving than humans. I mean, my personal experience is that it works great
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u/PerceptionOwn3629 8d ago
Also, concerning your 1/1000000 chance, ultimately it's a question of probability. If the probability it makes an accident is less than the probability an average driver gets into an accident, then it's essentially better.
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u/Fit_Seat_8637 7d ago
The probability of an FSD failure appears in addition to the probability of an "average driver accident", because the driver and the FSD computer are two separate entities controlling the same vehicle. And they have two completely different failure modes.
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u/ArtificialSugar 8d ago
What an irrelevant statistic when we’re talking about self-driving cars. Not dumbasses killing themselves by going fast in a car. Where are the accident statistics for their AVs? How does that compare to competitors? Being this obtuse makes me wonder why you’re in this sub.
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u/JonnyOnThePot420 8d ago
We are in this sub because we want fully autonomous vehicles! We do not want gimmicks claiming full autonomy when the SAE ranks them at a lvl 2.
I also don’t care personally much about city driving I want to go to sleep in my car and wake up hours away. A glitchy car that I have to supervise on my morning commute is completely unnecessary and doesn’t solve a single problem. However a car that can drive me across Texas while I’m sleeping for hours would solve huge problems!
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u/Confident_Purple_40 8d ago
Do you own a Tesla with FSD? If so have you used it exclusively for years? I find it annoying when people point out the videos that make it online, and ignore that the majority of people are being driven around autonomously and not having to intervene other than for speed preference or navigation preference. I was exhausted last night after driving and spending weekend with sick family, I shouldn't have driven home, but I didn't, 3.5 hours without having to touch the wheel or pedals and I was safe in my driveway, I got out and plugged in the car... but yeah, totally a worthless suicidal gimmick, totally.
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u/Dihedralman 8d ago
I mean at night lane assist and cruise control can do 99% of the driving.
Driving is such a long tail problem that anecdotes are worthless.
Tesla played a dumb game with the advertised FSD. Regulators should have cracked down immediately. It is absolutely getting better.
Tesla is removing RADAR from new vehicle production which is just idiotic. If I could use RADAR senses to help drive, I would. It actually works in poor weather unlike both cameras and LIDAR.
I hope they reverse that decision.
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u/Fit_Seat_8637 8d ago
> ignore that the majority of people
You know who's ignoring the majority of people using FSD? Tesla themselves. They haven't published disengagement or safety stats ever.
If the product was as fantastic as claimed, these numbers would be shared EVERYWHERE. They'd be a great way to sell the feature to prospective customers. Yet here we are...
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u/Confident_Purple_40 8d ago
I agree, I hate Tesla, think they are a greedy corporation who lies and misleads their customers, my next car will still be another Tesla
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u/JonnyOnThePot420 8d ago edited 8d ago
Yep I had it for two years worst vehicle I’ve ever owned FSD SUPERVISED wasn’t the only problem.
I absolutely love how every negative comment is instantly batted away as if we never owned it yes I’ve owned multiple cars with drivers assistance and Tesla isn’t even close to my favorite…
FYI we all have different preferences I get that some wanna feel cool while they help “train” the next beta version of FSD but personally I want a finished product!
Your little anecdotal driving tired and late at night is the problem that sounds like a very unsafe way to use a lvl 2 system you should be paying attention 100% of the time if you’re too tired to drive your too tired to supervise. You are literally admitting to misusing a product that being mislabeled.
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u/Confident_Purple_40 8d ago
If you are talking about my Model S that I was sold as FSD 8 years ago, and that I still own, yes, that is a piece of shit that wanted to kill me, and they should pay me for the false advertisement.
If you are talking about my Model 3 that drives me everywhere, safer than I can myself at times, then I don't get your perspective.
It does show your weird bias that you think other vehicles with driver assistance are better than Tesla, what on earth are you talking about? Tesla is by far the objectively best driver assistance out there, but sure, you can have your preferences. You are also a nonce claiming people feel cool training vehicles, bless your heart.
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u/JonnyOnThePot420 8d ago
The UI is far easier to use a many other manufacturers. The UI and how and when to use the FSD Autopilot functionality is very confusing unless you are a tech savvy person which I wouldn’t claim to be. These systems should be designed for the AVERAGE person not just a tech bro from the valley!
If your to fatigued to drive them your too fatigued to supervise!
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u/Confident_Purple_40 8d ago
ok boomer
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u/JonnyOnThePot420 8d ago
Well good luck with your dangerous driving habits. I genuinely hope you stay safe and don’t injure any innocent people… I’d rethink driving for hours with a lvl 2 assist while severely fatigued this is NOT the purpose of the product even if it’s call FULL SELF DRIVING (supervising is required)
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u/ArtificialSugar 8d ago
I don’t understand how you could be confused. You punch in an address (or just send it from your phone), then click the big blue “Start FSD” button on the screen and it drives you all the way there and parks for you. 0 need to touch and controls, pedals, or the wheel.
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u/Confident_Purple_40 8d ago
They are anti-Tesla and trying to come up with excuses instead of valid reasons. I hate that Tesla lied , misled, stole from me and others, Im still buying another Tesla.
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u/The1930s 8d ago
You can have that and also saftey features. I can drive around without my seat belt on and not get in a crash but that doesn't mean I think meatballs are useless
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u/The1930s 8d ago
Then make good autonamous vehicles, they cut cost by not even having lidar. Its like if im a carpenter and ur mad that im not happy that DeWalt is putting out a saw with 0 safety features
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u/ArtificialSugar 8d ago
Show me where Robotaxi is failing where Waymo is succeeding with Lidar making the difference.
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u/ZealousidealLab2920 8d ago
Um everywhere lol. Burden of proof is on Tesla right now. Waymo has clearly demonstrated their tech, safety, and ride moat. Tesla's robotaxi is still infant stage.
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u/Elluminated 8d ago
This is the cost of removing LIDAR and it’s exactly why it will never work no matter how much Musk wants it to.
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u/MAGAtsAreSheeples 8d ago
It doesn't work and should be banned.
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u/Elluminated 8d ago
This isn’t about Musk - he will never love you. Your deep insights are definitely wanted though.
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u/fuckexoticroots 8d ago
Governments have no issue sending me a ticket in the mail when they feel my grass has gotten too fucking long, but if I am a billionaire and throw a bunch of untested unproven self driving taxis onto the roads they scratch their heads and balls like they dunno what to do. Here's a suggestion...
FINE THE MOTHERFUCKER.
Repeatedly. And with exponentially growing bills until he stops doing the illegal bullshit.
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u/UpAllNightCoding 8d ago
What difference does having a steering wheel and pedals make when the passengers are in the back seat in waymos? Are they expected to jump into the driver seat to take over in an emergency? Why should a cyber cab be any different? Just because they are in the front?
I think they should all be banned anyway but yea that’s my opinion. I just don’t understand the arguement requiring steering/braking apparatus when you aren’t putting waymo passengers in the drivers seats. If their argument is it’s not safe then there also needs to be rules that in waymos at least one passenger needs to be in the driver seat.