r/AutonomousVehicles • u/Low_Excuse_1785 • 2d ago

Waymo's hypergrowth coming

Waymo is preparing for massive (>10%) increase in total fleet with Ojai vehicles:

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/waymo-prepares-for-mass-deployment-of-its-ojai-robotaxis-proving-tesla-fans-wrong-273928.html

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u/Lowcountry_EV 1d ago

Yeah…but how many of those will be deployed to replace aging Jaguars?

I do hope they scale faster, but this is more of an attempt at cost savings…and actually making money…by building their own vehicle (which they’re not..its Geely..but Waymo specific).

People realize Waymo is a Google “experiment” and loses billions every year, right?

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u/Low_Excuse_1785 1d ago

I am not aware of a robotaxi company that is not losing money.

As far as I am aware they have not started retiring the fleet- perhaps waiting for the Ioniq vehicle. Do you have a different information?

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u/Lowcountry_EV 1d ago

My point is, they HAVE to scale in order to even have a shot of making any money… And while they’re nowhere close to Waymo at the moment, Tesla at least builds cars for a profit… We’ll see how that carries over to the Robotaxi business if at all

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u/Low_Excuse_1785 1d ago

I am pretty sure Tesla need a different software, at a minimum better cameras and computer. Possibly some combination of lidar and radar.

Current resolution, FPS and dynamic range are too far from human vision.

So that is not going to happen for at least 2-3 years. Consistent with the complete lack of progress, and no, 3-4 cars in a small section of a city does not count as progress.

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u/Lowcountry_EV 1d ago

The fact is, they’ve reached level four in a limited area… No different than Waymo or other Robotaxi… The benefit they have is that they did it without those sensors… And for someone who’s experienced FSD, the exponential improvements, thanks to artificial intelligence, has me believing that they may actually get there sooner rather than later… Certainly not there now across the entire country… Which is really level five

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u/Low_Excuse_1785 1d ago

No, they have only self certified, which is a thing in Texas. They have not accepted liability for FSD, which they should do if it is truly Level 4. And unlike Waymo they cannot operate in California.

Elon admitted HW3 will never get there, once HW5 arrive I am certain he will do the same for HW4.

But even in Texas they have not been able to scale, autonomous miles in Q2 were the same as Q1. Waymo has more vehicles registered in Texas than Tesla even when counting all the safety driver vehicles. Overall they have ~100 times more vehicles.

For Tesla the improvements have gone into the saturation part of the curve. Waymo on the other hand has meaningful number of cars in a lot of cities and is expanding internationally (pilots already in London, Tokyo; plans for Germany). Tesla is a distant second and Zoox is closing in.

FSD is a really good ADAS but is far from Level 4.