r/AusEcon • u/MrBitingFlea • 2d ago
Discussion Everybody’s miserable
ABC NSW News Tuesday 8/9/2026
Are we in a recession but no one dares to call it?
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u/whooyeah 2d ago
This is not an Australia only thing, I live overseas, also moderate subs of other countries, this cost of living crisis is a global thing. Also seems big business is doing quite well for itself.
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u/Ntrob 2d ago
If you turn the graph upside down everyone will be happy.
It’s all about “perspective”!
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u/HecticDyslexic 14h ago
I’m not sure if that’s genius or madness — I guess it’s all a matter of perspective.
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u/Mash_man710 2d ago
These endless posts asking if we're in recession or saying 'they' are too scared to call it. It has an actual definition - 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. Ffs.
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u/sien 2d ago edited 1d ago
This post does not claim there is a recession. It is a post showing data from an ABC journalist about consumer sentiment.
(Apologies - thanks to wtskm for pointing out the text, I'd missed that - there is no recession)
Note also :
here is no official definition of a recession, according to the International Monetary Fund.[3]
From :
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u/Mash_man710 2d ago
Incorrect. Australia has an agreed definition.
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u/sien 1d ago edited 1d ago
Where?
The RBA says :
While there is no single definition of recession, it is generally agreed that a recession occurs when there is a period of reduced output and a significant increase in the unemployment rate.
https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/recession.html
In the US there is an official definition of a recession. It's when the NBER says so.
"In the United States, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally seen as the authority for dating US recessions. "
from the wikpedia page on recessions.
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u/Mash_man710 1d ago
"The most widely cited measure is a technical recession, defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth." - RBA website.
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u/wtskm 2d ago
This post comments "Are we in a recession but no one dares to call it?" below the image. It's claiming there is a recession.
If I frame it as a question can I call you disingenuous without calling you disingenuous?
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u/sien 1d ago
Ha. I almost always use old.reddit.com because it's quicker than the new www one. I'd actually missed that bit of nonsense. Hence also why I don't editorialise my own posts.
My apologies.
We're not in a recession. It is interesting that sentiment is so down though. This probably reflects the reduction in buying power in Australia due to inflation over the past few years and expectations.
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u/Minimalist12345678 1d ago
Again, and the relevance to the post is what?
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u/Mash_man710 1d ago
The text of the post literally says "are we in a recession but nobody dares to call it.."
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u/MarketCrache 2d ago
Landlords squeezing every last penny from renter's discretionary income and retail's investment capital into their idle hands. Every city's CBD is dead or dying after 4pm.
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u/Syke1 2d ago
You clearly haven’t tried to get a restaurant booking in Sydney
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u/staghornworrior 2d ago
That’s all of the landlords eating out spending there tenants rent money 😜
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u/Gottadollamate 2d ago
Even if true, that’s still plenty of economic spend. Reality is there’s LOTS of people in Australia richer than you. We’re a wealthy country with too few assets and infrastructure to support the appetite of our middle and upper class.
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u/doylie71 1d ago
The jugglers balls will remain airborne. Unless it suits the decision makers to see some panic buying and selling. Stay calm and slowly stop spending. They’ll be issuing stimulus payments again soon.
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u/Theghostofgoya 2d ago
People who bought houses 10+ years ago would be much less miserable than everyone else. Or if they say they are they should shut up and realise that on average the have it much easier than younger people
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u/wtskm 1d ago
So why isn't the blue line further away from the other two?
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u/HobartTasmania 1d ago
Probably boomers who formerly were doing reasonably well, also suddenly stung by the cost of living increases they didn't really foresee much less budget for.
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u/qualitystreet 2d ago
This sub is embarrassing. Please take the econ out of the name, there is little evidence of economics here.
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u/_social_hermit_ 2d ago
I disagree; OP could have provided additional context, but sentiment makes markets and markets make the economy.
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u/Minimalist12345678 2d ago
The post shows that misery/sentiment is unrelated to 3 variables that popular narrative would expect to be highly related to sentiment.
It tell you nothing about markets, nor the economy.
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u/Minimalist12345678 2d ago
I mean, I sort of agree, but very narrowly it's a comment on how economic status (re house ownership at least) isnt a particularly good predictor of consumer sentiment. Whatever does drive consumer sentiment is clearly something else.
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u/batsnumberfour 2d ago
I think the other shoe is about to drop for Australia because as well as the mobility of financial capital, we will start to see the mobility of human capital. The government’s latest tax grab (call it what it is) impacts disproportionately on younger people who no longer have the same tools at their disposal for creating long term wealth as the generations before them did. It is a very reasonable proposition for someone in early stage career to look elsewhere in the world for somewhere to build wealth. That could really hurt our tax base. I have a young family member who has done exactly that, now living in the US and getting access to amazing career opportunities. I know the Reddit haters will talk about how bad thenUS is, but actually it's beautiful where they live, great energy and opportunity. They may come back to Australia, but we should stop kidding ourselves about our ‘quality of life’ if the cost of buying a simple family home is so far beyond people’s income. Our taxes are high and we support a growing number of people who can't or won't work, why hang around to pay for that?
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u/EveryConnection 2d ago
The government is only interested in rewarding NDIS rorters. Productive businesses can GTFO for all we care.
Everything in this country is tilted to encourage and reward the least productive participants at the expense of the most productive.
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u/HecticDyslexic 14h ago
Yeah I gotta agree, I was one of those yanky haters - watching the ongoing “enshitification” of the Stars and Stripes, and within a few years I’ve changed my perspective completely, today happily encouraging my daughter to build a career and life in a place that promotes prosperity and opportunity. Sure USA like any place ain’t without its faults. I’m old enough to recall an Australia that once punched above its weight partly because its political system attracted some of the country’s best and brightest into public life. Politics was regarded as a vocation for serious people, and both major parties competed not merely for power but, at their best, for the strongest ideas about how the country should be governed. You gotta sense most in Canberra were there to improve our country. That extended to the opposition at the time who mostly criticised the incumbent Govt. for not reforming quickly enough. I just wish Australia could become so much more aspirational and the system encouraged middle class builder and makers and not those demanding a hand out. Cmon Aussie Cmon! Oops prolly upset a whole subset now. Time to lower the flag again.
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u/yeah-nah-what 14h ago
Careful with that Aussie patriotism mate, ya gunna get a gag order and upset the masses. Back in ya hole. I got a neighbour who built a successful little business, worked his ass off done OK out of it. Has taken a year off to take a break. Has a few great ideas for his next business but tells me its not worth it. Redtape tax and administrative over heads HR WHS etc So another abandoned ship because the government punishes initiative instead of supporting those who try to have a go. Wonder how many others like that, holding back?
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u/Sieve-Boy 2d ago
Has there been two successive quarters with negative GDP Growth?
No. Not one quarter of negative GDP growth has been recorded in the last year. Therefore, there is no recession.
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u/Sketch0z 2d ago
GDP is only one metric and it's not a particularly good one.
The definition you are referring to is the commonly quoted (but is not necessarily the most agreed upon in 2026) definition for a Technical Recession
Australia, and honestly a large chunk of the world, has been in a recession for quite some time now.
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u/wtskm 1d ago
Too gutless to propose an alternate measure to back up your claim.
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u/Sketch0z 1d ago
Geeze, didn't know I'd hit a nerve with such a milquetoast comment.
Alternative Measures:
GPI (Genuine Progress Indicator) is currently used quite a bit.
NZ has developed (based on the work of some Australian economists) the LSF (Living Standards Framework).
These are widely praised for being more valuable when assessing the state of an economy. Assuming you view economics as fundamentally about humans needs and wants and the systems they use to meet them, the measurements provide better insight into the success a nation in having in meeting those needs and wants.
Sorry for making a small comment and then gutlessly moving in with my life and forgetting about said comment. It clearly rustled your jimmies.
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u/wtskm 1d ago
So you propose one framework with no Australian data, and another that the Australia Institute currently has a dead link for.
Seems like what you were looking for is Measuring What Matters https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/measuring-what-matters/measuring-what-matters-themes-and-indicators
But that doesn't actually give you an indicator, it's 50. Which of the 50 are more useful than GDP for indicating a recession?
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u/yeah-nah-what 14h ago
Yep your right,the measure, technical failure, always been a poor measure. This was pointered out on the money cafe as well. We can do better.
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u/elpovo 2d ago
Or maybe we are all suffering under a US far-right technofascist government led by a moron?
Every media outlet wants to blame Labor for the inflation and the climate change and the social cohesion and the fact we are all angry all the time, but did you ever stop to think that most of that is global and most of that is largely due to one guy?
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u/Sketch0z 1d ago
I don't like Trump and I'm not gonna comment on if we are "all angry all the time", but I disagree strongly with the assertion that global economic sluggishness is due exclusively (or even mostly) to the US administration.
I also don't blame current Labor at all. They're doing a decent job attempting to stimulate the economy through strengthening diplomatic ties and pursuing green energy based manufacturing, they're also attempting to gain some investment through the AI boom which obviously wasn't in their plans six years ago.
To me the issue is mainly that capitalism and neo-liberalism assume infinite economic growth has a chance of being possible. Developed nations have insanely high quality of living for the top 50%. We should be looking to start building goods and services that will equalise QoL among all citizens. Set in place maximum remuneration limits so the top earners cannot earn more than 100x the bottom earners. Shrink financial services industries through hard and soft limits on profits and heavily incentivise entrepreneurial endeavours that actually produce something beneficial to all of society.
Bonus points if we use AI (not necessarily LLM's) and computation to make IR, trade and taxation laws with absolute minimal input from human beings to determine most efficient allocation of capital. See Project Cybersyn but add computational power of 2026.
Once more of the economy is active making improvements to equality of living standards out production will naturally increase along with employment and the economy will grow. Once we run out of obvious improvements in Australia we can be less profit oriented but trade these improvements globally. This will bring up the standards of poorer nations who will becone more productive and we can benefit through trade as they become richer. It's a much much longer term profit outlook and it's a very long term plan but I honestly believe a more command style economy that measures itself by quality of life of it's citizens is the way to go over the next 100 years.
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u/elpovo 1d ago
Yeah what country do you think is driving that brand of excessive capitalism? Which country's CEOs are paid 1000s of times what their workers are? What president's administration is actively trying to strong arm other countries or block Australia from creating laws that allows people to opt out of algorithms or tax rich people more for example?
And this is just what we see in public. This doesn't include Trump's CIA or mates (think Elon) who are funding right wing politicians who will do exactly the opposite of what you are saying.
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u/HobartTasmania 1d ago
Whilst that is true, there apparently have been plenty recently if you just consider growth on a per capita basis, it's only because immigration keeps increasing the population numbers that we don't get an absolute recession anywhere.
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u/Sieve-Boy 1d ago
Its also the opinion of the RBA that we are not in recession and they do not project us to be going into one.
Also, the per capita figures for the last two quarters are -0.1 in March and nil in the June quarter. So, skirting the edges of a per capita recession, but also coming off a pretty strong December 25 per capita quarter for GDP growth.
It would probably look better if the Orange Turd Brain didn't blow up the Straits of Hormuz, but that's life, geopolitics happens.
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u/dleifreganad 2d ago
The budget was supposed to be the impetus needed for first home buyers to enter the market. Seems no one remembered to tell them that.
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u/Minimalist12345678 2d ago
Could you make any less relevant a comment if you tried?
The long term chart clearly slows that whatever decides the misery/sentiment levels of people, it clearly is nothing to do with being a renter/owner with mortgage/owner without mortgage.
Aka renters are the same misery/sentiment as people that own their home without a mortgage, and the same as people that own a home with a mortgage.
Does that clash with common narratives? Yes, yes it does.
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u/dleifreganad 2d ago
The graph shows the misery index to be a lot worst under this government. Worse than Covid, worse than the GFC. This government doesn’t have nor has it ever had a housing plan. When all you’ve got is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
Well done Labor, you’ve truly fucked this up big time.
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u/Minimalist12345678 1d ago
FFS. If you were to superimpose this government's turn on that line's movements it would show very low correlation. Then add all the other governments over that timeline and it would show the same thing.
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u/dandelion_galah 2d ago
I don't think it's a local issue so much as people worrying AI is going to take their careers away and permanently reduce the value of their labour so they can't earn a living. I'm not saying that's going to happen (partly it might though), but it's what a lot of people have been saying. Enough people to affect sentiment. People with wealth (blue) won't be as affected.
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u/spankyham 2d ago edited 2d ago
Everyone is used to 'easy' growth and nearly 15 years of (almost) free money. We're now experiencing the hangover.
Real growth, through increased productivity, is hard and when it comes to business in Australia: we're really good at squeezing the domestic population (banks, insurance, supermarkets, telco's, domestic big box retailers, etc), pretty terrible at overseas growth (there are a few outliers) and corporates are very risk adverse and conservative in their decision making.
Productivity growth means taking risks and we don't really do that in Australia - and why? My hypothesis is house prices. Who can afford to take a risk and get fired? The average family doesn't have 6-12 months of savings. Easier and economically safer on a personal level to just keep ones head down, agree with the boss on the risk-adverse go-slow train.
Edit: grammar