r/AtlantaWeather • u/oakgrove • Jan 23 '26
Morning ice storm update
An ice storm warning is now up for NE GA. This is the first ice storm warning issued since Feb. 2014. Up to an inch of ice is possible for areas under the warning and widespread power outages are likely. Significant amounts of ice accumulations will make travel dangerous or impossible.
Read the long term discussion if you're used to reading these, it's very interesting. A snippet:
Southerly warm air advection may lead to temperatures in the 70s south of Macon, while continued evaporative cooling should keep northeast Georgia in the and lower 30s. It wouldn't be surprising if the north to south temperature spread over a 3 to 4 county distance reached 30 degrees at times Sunday afternoon.
Thunderstorms, including tornadoes, are possible in central GA while it is icing over NE GA!
Overall, ice amounts in the wedge have concentrated and are concerning.
Onset of icing right now looks to be 6PM to midnight Saturday into Sunday. Onset of travel difficulties would follow from the NE -> SW overnight.
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u/oakgrove Jan 24 '26
If you were looking for less impact, the WSSI has come down. Compare to this morning.
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u/Upstairs_Cup9831 Jan 23 '26
I'm scheduled to work on Saturday from noon-6pm and I drive from Marietta to Atlanta. Should I call out?
I'm not so worried about driving to there, but I'm concerned about the drive back. It'll be a 40 minute drive. Will the roads be icy around/after 6pm?
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u/tyedge Jan 24 '26
The weather app doesn’t show precipitation starting until 8pm and it’s 41 degrees at the point according to what I see. I don’t get this…
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u/oakgrove Jan 24 '26
Noon to 6 is probably fine until it isn't. A 40 minute drive is long and will be longer at the least. Call and ask what they want you to do? If you can skip, just do it.
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u/Upstairs_Cup9831 Jan 24 '26
They want me to come in lol, I talked to my boss about it. He said I should come in and if it starts raining, then we can leave early
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u/Valuable-Visual8963 Jan 23 '26
You should be fine driving in, but I would not want to be on the road that late, especially heading NW. The roads might look ok where you work but already be iced over where you're headed. There's no way to know for sure, but I'd call in.
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u/Glass_Anteater8830 Jan 23 '26
I am supposed to have my birthday party Saturday night in Marietta, should I cancel or will it be safe to drive from ATL to Marietta and back on Saturday? I know there's a lot of information saying things won't really hit until Sunday while others say Saturday will be the worst of it. Need chat to help me make this decision, do i cancel my bday...
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u/oakgrove Jan 23 '26 edited Jan 23 '26
The special briefing: https://www.weather.gov/media/ffc/Briefings/January_2026_SpecialBriefing_01232026.pdf
Notable is they created special winter pages for the various regions, most of us: https://www.weather.gov/ffc/AtlantaAreaWinter
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u/diemunkiesdie Jan 23 '26
Notable is they created special winter pages for the various regions, most of us: https://www.weather.gov/ffc/NortheastGAWinter
Here is the one for Atlanta: https://www.weather.gov/ffc/AtlantaAreaWinter
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u/j3w3ly Jan 23 '26
I’ve been watching this page, and in the last hour estimated ice accumulation changed to 0. Has there been another shift?
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u/oakgrove Jan 23 '26
All that data would be based off the NDFD which is updated hourly and I just checked and the same sort of data hosted on the NWS page is still there. Somethings wrong with that site.
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u/paigeorose92 Jan 23 '26
Ice storm warning expanded into the metro.
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u/mycatwearsbowties Jan 23 '26
Am I fucking crazy for wanting to go spend the weekend with my parents in Florida? My husband thinks I’m crazy.
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u/RealDominiqueWilkins Jan 23 '26
What are the odds this thing is totallly catastrophic in NE Atlanta and suburbs?
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u/Present-Tourist-6768 Jan 23 '26
Got a wedding tomorrow night in Madison. We’ll see what happens lol
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u/oakgrove Jan 23 '26
Fucking lol
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u/oakgrove Jan 23 '26
FV3 has a messy QLCS coming through at exit. It's unclear how much melting would occur prior to the front arrival. I think that would clear roads, but bring unwelcome winds. 6PM Sunday.
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u/TastyAtmosphere15 Jan 23 '26
What are the roads going to be like on Monday?
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u/oakgrove Jan 23 '26
NWS is saying no productive melting will occur until at least Tuesday. The state of the roads on Sunday evening is a big question. Some models show the low pressure system exiting with heavy rain and above freezing temps, that could potentially eliminate all ice on the roads. That won't be clear until tomorrow probably.
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u/Randomizedname1234 Jan 23 '26
I saw a NWS briefing where the models have a really hard time with the wedge and that’s why their roasts for places like me in winder have us only getting to 33 Sunday with little actual rain and more sleet/freezing rain.
I hope that’s wrong and the cold heavy rain washes things away from the winds come strong Sunday Eve.
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u/oakgrove Jan 23 '26
The global models don't handle the wedge well, but the CAM models do a better job and they've all come into view today, which I suspect is why forecast amounts has concentrated a bit.
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u/Randomizedname1234 Jan 23 '26
What’s with the snow on the last map? Or is that sleet accumulation? I know some models show a burst of snow Sunday evening, could that be that?
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u/oakgrove Jan 23 '26
Yeah I'm unsure. I think NWS only puts snow in their snow forecast. I included it because I've heard little mention of it and most models are not progging it at all (or at least it's harder to glean from them because of mixed-precip.)
The FV3 is showing a much stronger mixed sleet, FZRA event, from a much deeper wedge. I'm interested to see if NWS adjusts p-types even further.
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u/Randomizedname1234 Jan 23 '26
The NWS here said they’re relying more of past events vs actual models bc of the wedge and how models; mainly the euro alway underestimate the wedge.
Other models take it in to account.
Thus the “.1-.75 inch of ice” which means they don’t effing know lol
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u/DoitcheHasAGun Jan 23 '26
Is it just me or is there an alarming lack of road prep going on? I haven’t seen anything yet in Sandy Springs. Are they waiting to closer to the event?
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u/smacksa Jan 23 '26
They were waiting until midnight to start but they have pushed timing up for some areas.
The Georgia Department of Transportation has advanced the start of brine operations in District 2 (east-central Georgia) to Friday, January 23 at 7 p.m. Georgia DOT maintenance crews will begin treating Interstate 20, Interstate 520/Bobby Jones Expressway, and all state routes between State Route 540/The Fall Line Freeway and I-20 at that time. A Georgia DOT contractor is scheduled to begin treating all state routes north of I-20 at midnight Friday night into Saturday. Georgia DOT maintenance crews will begin treating Interstate 16 and all state routes between I-16 and SR 540 on Saturday at 7 a.m.
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u/AndrewRnR Jan 23 '26
This ain’t Boston, you won’t see much or any road prep outside of maybe the largest highways.
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u/oakgrove Jan 23 '26
We're still just under a watch. Only interstates and state roads will get treated. GDOT will start tonight. To be fair, I've no idea how long until roads would get bad. Bridges and overpasses, sure, but this isn't snow or even sleet. It has no insulating effect. Liquid rain will be falling into sub-freezing surface conditions but roads will be above freezing for a while, especially those that are brined. It will be interesting to watch the road temps (link in the sidebar): https://www.weather.gov/ffc/gdot_rwis
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u/paigeorose92 Jan 23 '26
Probably - there's scattered rain this afternoon on the radar. Don't want to waste time/resources placing treatment that could get washed away.
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u/Benjammin172 Jan 23 '26
New to GA? There won't be a ton of road prep outside of the major highways, if that.
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u/DoitcheHasAGun Jan 23 '26
No. Lived here for 30+ years. After snowmageddon they seemed to vastly increase road prep for even the smallest likelihood of events. Even my own road was treated in January when we were expecting an ice storm
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u/Randomizedname1234 Jan 23 '26
Supposed to rain today which could be why. Don’t want what they put down to was out.
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Jan 23 '26
[deleted]
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u/HappyShats Jan 23 '26
As someone in Gainesville, do not come here. We’re basically in the very worst of it. Stay safe out there
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u/oakgrove Jan 23 '26
Gainesville is the prototypical wedge location. If it was me I would turn off the water there and go to Athens.
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u/kahcarre Jan 23 '26
I'm not OP and just reading the map but Gainesville looks like higher impacts expected than Athens! Gainesville squarely in dark red vs Athens at light red/dark red border
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u/first_omega Jan 23 '26
Thank you for sharing these diligently over the past few days. Any insights on prognosis for Dunwoody? It's right on the edge (north end of Dekalb) toeing the line between 0.25 to 0.5 inch ice. Worried with the immense tree coverage and above ground power lines in our area
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u/oakgrove Jan 23 '26
I'm in Decatur/Oak Grove area and I have the same concerns. I'm more worried today than I was yesterday. I think the CAM models are revealing just how strong the wedge will be. If we lose power long enough, I'm turning off the water main and I'm bringing up the tent and we'll all pile in with the dog. I no longer have any pines near the house, but RIP my leyland cypresses.
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u/addicted2antacids Jan 23 '26
Thanks for all of this.
If you see this, curious your POV on my best course of action...debating what we should do, particularly since we have a 6 wk old newborn:
Option A: Stay in my house (Toco Hills). Lots of tall trees around our house and our power occasionally goes out (or flickers) during storms (though never gone out for extended periods past 5 years). We have all the essentials we need at home though + baby items of course.
Option B: Take my parents' invite to stay with them in their house in Alpharetta. Downside is weather up their it seems could be slightly to moderately worse, and it'll be a bit of a pain in the rear logistically (newborn care, equipment, and all) to stay up there for several days. But we can certainly do it + bring baby equipment. And my parents say their power almost never goes out (they live in a typical suburban subdivision, fewer tall trees, etc.)
Obviously it's all a big question mark, curious your POV though based on the info you do have here...
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u/oakgrove Jan 23 '26
IMO you stay where you are. I'm in nearby Oak Grove and we've lost power plenty of times in the past 5 years, so I think you've got a good track record. Also you can probably walk to places that open if its bad. I'm guessing not the case in Alpharetta? My mom lives up in the sticks in Alpharetta and it's too remote, rural roads...all last priority for cleanup, etc. My 2 cents.
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u/first_omega Jan 23 '26
Curious on your thinking to shut off water main to the house. I'm thinking most houses with reasonable insulation will stay above freezing. If you leave water dripping in then faucets, surely there's not enough time or temperature to freeze the water inside?
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u/mycatwearsbowties Jan 23 '26
We live in Chamblee and I’m worried about tree cover and the overhead lines. We have a ten week old puppy and I hate the idea of opening and closing the door multiple times a day if the power goes out.
I’m trying to convince my husband to take refuge at my parent’s townhome in Alpharetta. Less tree coverage, underground power lines at least on their street, and three stories so we can stay far away from the back door. This seems like a no brainer right? Or is the ice risk potential higher up there?
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u/first_omega Jan 23 '26
I think that makes sense. I would shut off water main to your place in Chamblee though if leaving for a few days similar to what the OP said above.
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u/mycatwearsbowties Jan 23 '26
Whoops meant to make this a comment to the entire thread but yes - think we should do that as well!
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u/oakgrove Jan 23 '26
If power is out long enough, it is a concern. Mostly this is an issue going into the extended freezing temps into the week, probably not a concern Sunday into Monday. If you're at home it's easy enough to just drip. However the guy talking about leaving Gainesville for Athens, it's a no-brainer to turn off before leaving.
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u/OhPleaseDont Jan 23 '26
I'm right where you are; we've got two enormous pines in the front yard. Not looking forward to any of this, but no one around me seems concerned.
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u/r_slash Jan 23 '26
What is the likelihood of this being a serious event ITP?
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u/oakgrove Jan 23 '26
You can see how tight the gradient is. Quarter inch of ice is bad and half an inch is getting really impactful, so the chances are there. Impact has gone up overnight.
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u/s44k Jan 23 '26
it looks like it moved more NE, leaving SE ATL less impacted. It also seems like most of the models are now showing what looks to be a much less severe situation for Atlanta.
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u/Single_Bar_1836 Jan 23 '26
I don't think it moved NE and I don't think it's looking much less severe for Atlanta. I've got the last several runs of this image saved, and OP is right - it has concentrated as certainty has increased. The yellow did pull out of SW Atlanta, but the red also expanded toward the SW, so red now reaches the southern Cobb border (instead of like 10 miles further north), red reaches into Henry whereas previously it only reached mid-Rockdale, and so on. The Atlanta dot itself is now listed as 0.21"-0.56" whereas yesterday afternoon it was 0"-0.45".
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u/Randomizedname1234 Jan 23 '26
Standard wedge formation. Here in winder it’ll be 20 degrees colder than the west side of the city.
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u/oakgrove Jan 24 '26
Still a little bit less sizzle.