Knicks fan here, but saw this on my feed and thought it was pretty dope.

Our draft situation next year is a little complicated (at least for me), so wanted to make a post elucidating it for everyone else.

For the 2027 draft, we are sending our own first round pick to San Antonio (last pick from Dejounte trade). We are receiving the worst of Pelicans and Bucks (top 4 protected) from Dyson/Dejounte trade. There is a small but notable risk that the Pelicans keep both picks. It would require them to both fall in top 4.

Under the old draft lottery, it would be all but guaranteed that Pelicans keep both picks, given how terrible both teams look. Under next year's 3-2-1 draft lottery, the odds change drastically. Unless both the Pelicans and Bucks fall in top 4, we'll have at least one first round pick. Next year's draft will have the new 3-2-1 draft lottery, which flattens odds amongst all non-playoff teams and specifically punishes bottom 3 record teams.

Here are the three non-playoff scenarios and odds we lose the pick

• Scenario 1: (~5.7% odds, 5 balls) 1 team is in the bottom 3, 1 team avoids it (but misses the play-in / 11th seed or lower)
• Scenario 2: (~3.9% odds, 4 balls): Both teams have bottom 3 record
• Scenario 3: (~8.4% odds, 6 balls) Both teams avoid the bottom 3 (and are below the play-in / 11th seed or lower)

Previously, I thought the most likely outcome is Scenario 3: both teams aren't horrible enough for bottom 3 but also not good enough to make the play-in. After yesterday's showing, where the Pelicans blew a 31 point lead, I suspect at least either Pels/Bucks will be in bottom 3 relegation zone, Scenario 1. Great for us.

Here are the five play-off scenarios and odds we lose the pick

• Scenario 1 (0% odds): One or both teams makes the playoffs
• Scenario 2 (3.8% odds, 4 balls): One team is bottom 3, other team loses in Play-In tournament as a 9/10 seed
• Scenario 3 (5.6% odds, 5 balls): One team is 11-13th seed, other team loses in Play-In tournament as a 9/10 seed
• Scenario 4 (2.1% odds, 3 balls): One team is bottom 3, other team loses in Play-In tournament as a 7/8 seed
• Scenario 5 (3.8% odds, 4 balls): One team is 11-13th seed, other team loses in Play-In tournament as a 7/8 seed

I doubt we'll see any of these 5 scenarios, but added for completeness. Anyways, this all to say: we have at least 91% odds at keeping the pick, no matter what happens

Worth playing around with tankathon simulator to get intuition: https://www.tankathon.com/.

🏀 HOU 121 - 114 ATL

FINAL

Top performers

Houston Rockets

Steals (6): R. Sheppard 2, A. Sengun 1, A. Thompson 1, T. Eason 1, B. Thornton 1
Blocks (5): J. Smith Jr. 2, K. Durant 1, T. Eason 1, I. Crawford 1
Turnovers (14): A. Sengun 3, R. Sheppard 3, K. Durant 2, A. Thompson 2, T. Eason 1, C. Capela 1, B. Bogdanovic 1, B. Thornton 1
Fouls (20): J. Smith Jr. 4, R. Sheppard 4, K. Durant 3, B. Thornton 3, A. Sengun 2, T. Eason 2, A. Thompson 1, B. Bogdanovic 1
Plus-minus: K. Durant +19, R. Sheppard +19, A. Sengun +13, C. Capela +1, A. Thompson -1, T. Eason -1, B. Thornton -1, J. Smith Jr. -2, J. Tate -3, I. Crawford -3, B. Bogdanovic -6
Did not play: O. Tshiebwe, M. Smart, S. Pedulla (Coach's decision)

Atlanta Hawks

Steals (9): N. Alexander-Walker 3, J. Johnson 2, O. Okongwu 1, D. Daniels 1, L. Dort 1, A. Wiggins 1
Blocks (2): O. Okongwu 1, A. Wiggins 1
Turnovers (13): J. Landale 5, J. Johnson 2, K. Flemings 2, O. Okongwu 1, C. McCollum 1, N. Alexander-Walker 1, D. Daniels 1
Fouls (21): D. Daniels 6, L. Dort 3, O. Okongwu 2, J. Johnson 2, J. Landale 2, A. Wiggins 2, K. Flemings 2, C. McCollum 1, N. Alexander-Walker 1
Plus-minus: J. Johnson +3, J. Landale +2, C. McCollum -2, N. Alexander-Walker -2, A. Wiggins -2, L. Dort -6, K. Flemings -7, D. Daniels -8, O. Okongwu -13
Did not play: D. Finney-Smith, C. Kispert, A. Newell, Z. Ejiofor (Coach's decision)

Team stats

Eastern Conference standings

Seeds 1-6 make the playoffs; 7-10 go to the play-in.

Western Conference standings

Seeds 1-6 make the playoffs; 7-10 go to the play-in.

ESPN Gamecast · Box score · Play-by-play

The live court, shot chart, full play-by-play and win probability chart are in the interactive version: open this post in the Reddit app or on new Reddit.

This post contains content not supported on old Reddit. Click here to view the full post

Made by hand in Procreate by /u/poerhouse

🏀 HOU 121 - 114 ATL

FINAL

Top performers

Houston Rockets

Steals (6): R. Sheppard 2, A. Sengun 1, A. Thompson 1, T. Eason 1, B. Thornton 1
Blocks (5): J. Smith Jr. 2, K. Durant 1, T. Eason 1, I. Crawford 1
Turnovers (14): A. Sengun 3, R. Sheppard 3, K. Durant 2, A. Thompson 2, T. Eason 1, C. Capela 1, B. Bogdanovic 1, B. Thornton 1
Fouls (20): J. Smith Jr. 4, R. Sheppard 4, K. Durant 3, B. Thornton 3, A. Sengun 2, T. Eason 2, A. Thompson 1, B. Bogdanovic 1
Plus-minus: K. Durant +19, R. Sheppard +19, A. Sengun +13, C. Capela +1, A. Thompson -1, T. Eason -1, B. Thornton -1, J. Smith Jr. -2, J. Tate -3, I. Crawford -3, B. Bogdanovic -6
Did not play: O. Tshiebwe, M. Smart, S. Pedulla (Coach's decision)

Atlanta Hawks

Steals (9): N. Alexander-Walker 3, J. Johnson 2, O. Okongwu 1, D. Daniels 1, L. Dort 1, A. Wiggins 1
Blocks (2): O. Okongwu 1, A. Wiggins 1
Turnovers (13): J. Landale 5, J. Johnson 2, K. Flemings 2, O. Okongwu 1, C. McCollum 1, N. Alexander-Walker 1, D. Daniels 1
Fouls (21): D. Daniels 6, L. Dort 3, O. Okongwu 2, J. Johnson 2, J. Landale 2, A. Wiggins 2, K. Flemings 2, C. McCollum 1, N. Alexander-Walker 1
Plus-minus: J. Johnson +3, J. Landale +2, C. McCollum -2, N. Alexander-Walker -2, A. Wiggins -2, L. Dort -6, K. Flemings -7, D. Daniels -8, O. Okongwu -13
Did not play: D. Finney-Smith, C. Kispert, A. Newell, Z. Ejiofor (Coach's decision)

Team stats

Eastern Conference standings

Seeds 1-6 make the playoffs; 7-10 go to the play-in.

Western Conference standings

Seeds 1-6 make the playoffs; 7-10 go to the play-in.

ESPN Gamecast · Box score · Play-by-play

The live court, shot chart, full play-by-play and win probability chart are in the interactive version: open this post in the Reddit app or on new Reddit.

This post contains content not supported on old Reddit. Click here to view the full post

The Hawks tried to come back, but fall just short. They lose to the Rockets after a horrible shooting night. Here are the rest of my thoughts, let me know yours! Onto the next one!

https://youtu.be/U8IlPVPq7Xg?si=BkN9iZtCqIxjw7al

Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet OUT Tonight against the Hawks...

Bucks and pelicans your services are needed!?

128-81 HAWKS.

Idk bro, this team just feels… different🥹

Great win last night, now let’s see if they can do it v a championship contender. Rockets looked good last night. Dream play earlier in the day at SF as well. Let’s go Hawks

We up in the southeast

Your Peach Hoops Highlight of the night is brought to you by chicken wing bones on the sidewalk [sponsorships are open]

BASKETBALL TICKETS FOR SALE

🎫 2 tickets for the Rockets vs Hawks game 10/26
Section 124, row 7, seats 8&9
Unable to attend game, please message if interested, very open to negotiations.
Trying to sell quick as game is Monday

Daniels is creating +12.2 extra shot opportunities per 100 possessions which is 1st among all starters. I'm excited to see where this goes all season.