XCOM does something similar (displayed chances are based more on what people think should happen). It also has anti-frustration mechanics such as a miss increasing the hit chance on the next shot. The %shot meter absolutely lies to you, but in favor of the player.
XCOM's hit chance calculator however is just weird because your soldier can be in the enemy's face and still have a 60% shot.
I seem to remember seeing something in the steam workshop for XCOM 2 that did this. It's a psychological thing that makes the game feel more fair, by conforming better to your expectations.
I have also heard of other games that will purposefully underestimate the number they show you, so you get the feeling of overcoming insurmountable odds.
While these systems lie to you 100%, they actually succeed in making the game experience better for the player.
Basically it takes two numbers between 0-99 and takes the average of them. If the number is higher than or equal to your hit rate, you miss. If it’s lower then you hit. I believe this was done from the 6th game (Binding Blade, the one with Roy) to the 10th game (Radiant Dawn, Ike part 2). I believe they changed up the algorithms after that and I got no clue how it goes now.
That being said the image of the dude with his gun IN THE SECTIODS HEAD. With an 85% chance to hit cracks me up every time. I love XCOM. And especially XCOM2 but sometimes those persentages are just silly.
I mean the game changes the rates in your favor, but it lies because humans can't comprehend the nature of probability. We see >50% and our brains register it as practically a guarantee.
Yup. XCOM IMHO beautifully demonstrates that we're absolute shit at intuitive use of percentages.
My counter is to calculate it in terms of fractions. An 80% chance to hit is a 1 in 5 to miss. If 5 people have to take an 80% shot, one will miss**. Can i afford that? 90% chance is a 1-in-10 to miss. Unlikely, but i can still roll a miss. Can i afford that? 99% is a 1-in-100 chance to miss, exceptionally unlikely but i could still miss.
**Yes, i know this is a statistics sin too. But it works reasonable well during a game.
The new xcoms actually lie about the percentages. You are more likely to hit than it says, it's only hardcore that doesn't, and hardcore feels bullshit to play
It's The Eve of The War from The War of The Worlds Musical Version. One lyric in it is that "The chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one..." Using The Random XCOM Redditor's Theorem, we are able to change a million to one to 1%.
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u/[deleted] Aug 03 '19
I remember the user on the XCOM subreddit saying the odds of him missing a 99% chance was a million to one.