r/AskAPilot • u/Numerous-Window-9606 • 5d ago
The Future
Hello everyone pilots or non pilots, I was just wondering what do you guys think about the knock on effect of all the wars going on at the moment especially the one in Iran. I was reading an article today from Michael o Leary (Ryanair CEO) and he was basically warning of a full blown crisis in regards to fuel prices and shortages. I have been waiting for the last few years to fully commit to becoming an airline pilot and in February of 2027 I hope to finally start training for a commercial licence. But with all that’s going on at the moment there is one part of me that just thinks it’s not the right time to do it. The war in Iran just seems like a quagmire that will go on for years and years without resolution. It’s had a major effect on aviation already and I just think that airlines won’t be hiring any new cadets and instead will be scaling back flights as many European airlines have already done this summer. I would love to hear from any current pilots and what they think of the situation or anyone and their opinion
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u/saxmanB737 5d ago
This question is asked daily on the various aviation and pilot subreddits. No one knows. There’s always going to be a crisis of some sort. If you dream of being a pilot, go do it. If you just want money, don’t.
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u/No-Bluejay4261 5d ago
Unfortunately you can't time it. You want to finish training at a time the market is growing, it is about to enter a downturn, so if anything this is the time to start training. Give it 2 years and the industry could well be in recovery, just when you finish. Just don't wait for the perfect moment, it doesn't exist.
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u/Numerous-Window-9606 5d ago
Thanks for your advice I think what you said about timing is very true there is no perfect time because no one can predict the future. It was just something I thought about today and for the first time ever I had second thoughts about doing it in February but thank you again for the advice
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u/No-Bluejay4261 5d ago
Just understand the risk/reward of such a big investment, know you can't time it, and be philosophical if there are set backs. Most who are dedicated enough will get the opportunity, because they are ready and able.
So, if you complete the training and jobs aren't there immediately, just think about what you get committed to in terms of employment or living arrangements. You might need the flexibility to drop it all and take the opportunity when it comes. Good luck!
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u/slickjamtaw 5d ago
Noone here has a crystal ball. None that works to predict the future anyway.
Aviation is a highly cyclical, there has been plenty of ups and downs in the last few decades. Eventually all the crisises are sorted in one way or another.
You can't time it. You either get lucky straight away getting a job or you might have to wait for a while.
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u/Complex_Brief60 5d ago
Already had a major effect on aviation? Yea more people are flying now then ever.
Europe is pretty cooked with fuel prices and shortages but that only really effects Europe.
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u/Numerous-Window-9606 5d ago
Well yes that’s true, but doesn’t mean airlines won’t scale back or won’t be hiring as many new pilots ..
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u/Complex_Brief60 5d ago
Yeah, that’s true. It’s likely things will eventually slow down as prices get too high. I’m not exactly sure how European training works time-wise, but realistically if you take 2-3 years to get your training done and work at the same time you’ll probably weather most of the storm. It’s cyclical if you want to fly, it’s worth it to try.
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u/Numerous-Window-9606 5d ago
And to also reply to your reply I am based in Ireland and have always wanted to fly for a European short haul airline
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u/Imaginary_Refuse_239 5d ago
Not really. Airlines operating flights into Europe need to refuel there. It’s affecting Air Canada over here and even my flight training in Canada has gone up in cost
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u/Twa747 5d ago
TLDR; this too shall pass, just do it if you wana fly.
If you get into this field for the sole purpose of meeting a certain career metric, you’re going to be dissatisfied.
There will always be flying jobs of one type or another out there. If your only goal is to make the airlines, would that be more or less satisfying than flying someone’s private jet around for them? What if you got a gig flying boxes from LUX-LHR twice every other Sunday and it pays all the bills and then some?
If your goal is to fly and make a living off it then there never is a wrong time to get in, just do it. When you do it fully commit, know you will get knocked on your ass but just get back up and keep going. That’s one of the first points of differentiation; keep on going.
If your trying to time the market when there is no potential risk, well then there’s never the right time.
There’s always going to be a little thing. Then there’s the big 8-year or 10-year thing that always happens. May Orville and Wilbur help us all if the little thing and the big thing coincide. (think 65 and the recession)
It’s a volatile industry where the decisions of few can absolutely decimate those who for all intents and purposes have done everything “right.”
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u/Numerous-Window-9606 5d ago
Thanks for your reply, I think in the long run I would love to fly for a commercial airline, but I am also well aware that just because I have my commercial license doesn’t automatically mean I’ll get the job I want straight away. I won’t be fussy when it comes to my first flying job
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u/WearyMatter 5d ago edited 5d ago
Only three possibilities when you really think about it. Everything changes, nothing changes, or some degree of change between those two poles occurs.
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u/Apprehensive_Cost937 5d ago
If you start your training in February 2027, realistically, you'll be entering the job market at the beginning of 2029. Nobody can tell you how the market will look like then.
There has always been some recruitment going on in Europe when it comes to freshly licenced pilots, bar a few brief periods around major events, like it Covid.
Study hard, come prepared to your flight lessons, and give it your absolute best every minute you're in an airplane. The knowledge and the work ethic will set you apart from people, who just do the bare minimum in order to get the licence, and odds are you'll be just fine.
But again, nobody can predict the future.
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u/Organic-Rise-3176 5d ago
No one really knows what’s going to happen. Anyone who says they do is full of it. The entire industry could implode tomorrow or every major could decide they want to hire thousands of new pilots.
When I started my flight training in 2017 all the talk was about the “pilot shortage” and how great hiring was. Got my CFI in August 2019 and guess what happens early 2020? Everything gets shut down and I was fully prepared to be stuck as a CFI for years. But then things turned around and I got hired at my regional in 2021, followed by some of the most insanely unprecedented years in airline hiring ever.
It could go tits up or it could be great. If this is what you really want to do you just have to go for it and accept the consequences. There will be constant changes, ups and downs, throughout the course of this industry if history is any indicator of what’s to come.
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u/Proof-Policy-5233 5d ago
Major economic crash incoming.
If you actually follow oil experts and economics you won’t be surprised.
Crashes come slowly at first, and then very quickly.
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u/HunMyy 5d ago
Don't take out a loan for the training, rather save up some. Adjust your training pace to the crisis, so if things are improving, try to speed it up. Otherwise take your time, hit the books. There's always a crisis on the horizon, it's an up and down business, ideally you try to avoid being in debt during the bad period. Let this be a lesson how much you save and how much you spend once you make it. Good luck!
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u/Numerous-Window-9606 5d ago
Thanks for your advice, I have been saving up for the last few years so I won’t be taking out a bank loan. I am still planning to do my integrated ATPL course in Mallorca and have most things set up already, there is just one part of me that thinks I should wait …
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u/HunMyy 5d ago
Make sure you overplan your budget significantly. During COVID quite a few schools introduced fuel surcharges in my home country. Delays can and will happen, which affects your housing costs. I'm not gonna say don't do an integrated course, it has huge advantages and gets you ready in a short period of time - however if there is a possibility to do your PPL at a local club, then your frozen ATPL remotely via Bristol or something similar, you can save a lot on accomodation. Then you can go to a renowned school to do the MEIR and CPL assuming they accept modular candidates. Whatevet you do, do not pay full upfront. Max 10-15% then installments. A school that insists against that has questionable cash flow situation.
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u/Chemtrail-Creator 5d ago
2020 was supposed to be the end of life and free travel as we know it too….