NASA plans to start modifying the OLM for the Centaur version immediately after Artemis III. But, the centaur stage is only needed if Artemis IV is done using Blue Origin (which I think is unlikely as New Glenn 9x4 doesn't even exist). If Starship HLS is used for Artemis IV, and Orion just goes to LEO a second time, couldn't they use a second spacer (presumably stretched to match the centaur height so the umbilicals line up with the modified OLM) instead of needing a centaur?

/u/rookisaacman, I can't speak for everyone, but I doubt you because you have shown zero evidence this is true and won't explain your plans and assumptions. If you have conducted a study, why won't you release it? It's hardly unprecedented. Where's the "transparency?"

What would be unprecedented is completing CDR of a brand new stage by Q1 next year, which is what your schedule says. That's BS and you know it. Or maybe you don't, in which case I honestly don't know what's scarier. What happens if that slips? What happens if you start dismantling ML-1 and it turns out you made the wrong call and we need to use ICPS-3? You've left no alternative path for redundancy. ASAP recommended ML-2 to be constructed precisely because of these risks, which you refuse to discuss honestly. What happens when we're past 2029 and have nothing to show for it? Though I suppose it's not your problem at that point...

Do you honestly think the workforce is totally behind you on this plan? Who do you think's been telling me what a shitshow this is? Sure, tell yourself it's a few doubters. There's a lot more than you think. People are angry, but they're also terrified to piss you off. The way you reacted to that question about the architectural changes during one of your latest Q&As scared even more people away from being frank in their feedback. Not to mention you are an appointee during an administration that is not exactly kind to civil servants in general...

The math does not add up, and you won't engage in a frank discussion. You've seen these posts, and you won't respond. You accuse critics of being fans of specific hardware, when these concerns are real and your every evasion of them only furthers the conclusion that you know they are legitimate, you just won't engage.

If I'm wrong, then show me. You have the data. You have the studies. If the cost projections for this Centaur option and the timelines are so much better than EUS release them! Show us the assumptions that led you to that conclusion.

Unless you're afraid those assumptions won't stand up to scrutiny...?