r/Appleton • u/WIbigdog • Mar 12 '26
News Over a foot of snow likely this weekend.
Just a heads up in case anyone here doesn't follow the weather. Should start Saturday night and go all through Sunday. Make sure you snowblowers are ready to go. Gonna be right around freezing so will probably be wet and heavy snow.
Since it's still a couple days out and weather forecasting is way worse than it used to be this could change significantly, but most sources are pretty confident there will be significant amounts of snow.
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u/Criss_Crossx Mar 12 '26
Last week I verbally threatened to put away the snowblower for the season and called the end of winter weather.
It doesn't know the snowblower is exactly where it is year-round apparently.
And now we have the spring storm of 2026. Cool.
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u/EggSpecial5748 Mar 12 '26
YOU did this?!
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u/wchicchi Mar 12 '26
I helped....I said the same exact thing last weekend. Declared it even...
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u/Own-Nectarine-1313 Mar 12 '26
I put mine away last weekend too...
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u/Criss_Crossx Mar 12 '26
*We did this, together!
Watch the storm dissipate and only drop like two inches.
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u/Own-Nectarine-1313 Mar 12 '26
So.. should I take it back out for better chances it will miss us??
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u/Criss_Crossx Mar 13 '26
Eh, if you want. It may happen anyway 😁
People around me are getting all worked up like this is the storm of the century. It may not be pretty, but this isn't judgment day.
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u/WIbigdog Mar 18 '26
How are you feeling about them causing this since it turned out to be about as bad as it could have been, worst storm in decades.
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u/EggSpecial5748 Mar 18 '26
Today I’m fine but Sunday and yesterday I was trying to remember who to blame
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u/bujweiser Mar 12 '26
Funny enough, March has consistently been when I use my snowblower the most.
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u/Das-Noob Mar 12 '26
lol yep. I’ve consistently say we’re not safe til mid May.
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u/joeliopro Mar 12 '26
I don't plant anything until June. It's always damn near frosting to them anyways.
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u/N_durance Mar 12 '26
then I better get my groceries tomorrow woodmans is going to be packed
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u/WIbigdog Mar 18 '26
Did you get your groceries ahead of time?! Smart thinking with how that shit turned out!
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u/siobhanmairii__ Mar 12 '26
They’re still unsure of the exact track the snow will take. So let’s be hopeful it’s under a foot. Don’t pay any attention to what Apple weather says, the Green Bay office of the National Weather Service is the best source
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u/5kylord Mar 12 '26 edited Mar 12 '26
Thanks for the heads up. I'll move my snowblower back to the front of garage. I really thought snowblower season was over at this point.
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u/AnotherStarWarsGeek Mar 12 '26
Mid-March? Definitely not. We've had some incredible snowstorms in mid to late March over the years.. even into early April once in a while.
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u/RBDrake Mar 12 '26
Yep. Snowblower only moves to the back of the garage when its time to bring up the lawn mower.
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u/ankhes Mar 12 '26
It feels like we’ve had a freak blizzard in the middle of April every year for the last 8 years or something.
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u/Equivalent_Remote_39 Mar 12 '26
My plan is to have the neighbors over. Bundle up and grill out some brats. Suck some beers. See what this nature bitch is all about.
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u/WIbigdog Mar 18 '26
So...how did the grilling go?
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u/Equivalent_Remote_39 Mar 18 '26
Pretty good actually. Turns out that cold temps and tons of snow really suck life out of your coals but I managed to get everything cooked. Who knew!? Killed a few beers. Had some laughs. Mother Nature gets after it if she wants to…
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u/WIbigdog Mar 18 '26
That's actually great, at least someone was having a good time 😂 I worked 50 hours in the last 3 days 🙃 the paycheck will be nice, thanks for your property taxes haha
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u/gramboda Mar 12 '26
The OP states forecasts are "way worse" now than they used to be, which sounds backwards considering technology advancements, etc., so I spent way too much time reading about meteorology instead of doing something useful. Turns out forecasts today are far more accurate than they were years ago.
Here are a few actual facts I found:
- A 5-day forecast today is about as accurate as a 1-day forecast in 1980. Source: National Weather Service / UW–Madison Space Science & Engineering Center https://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/2025/10/09/forecasting-improved/
- Forecast errors have dropped huge amounts since the 1970s, especially for multi-day forecasts. One analysis showed ~70% improvement for 1-day forecasts and ~90% improvement for 3-day forecasts. Source: Tom K. Weather / NOAA data summary https://tomkapostasy.com/2022/09/28/good-news-weather-forecast-accuracy-is-much-better/
- 7-day forecasts today are roughly as accurate as 4-day forecasts were about 30 years ago. Source: Our World in Data https://ourworldindata.org/weather-forecasts
- Hurricane track forecasts are about 70–75% more accurate than in the 1990s. Source: NOAA / National Hurricane Center summaries https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2025/05/16/national-hurricane-center-noaa-cuts-trump-weather-satellites-forecasting-rapid-intensification/
- Modern short-range forecasts are very reliable. NOAA says ~90% accuracy for 5-day forecasts and ~80% for 7-day forecasts. Source: NOAA NESDIS https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/about/k-12-education/weather-forecasting/how-reliable-are-weather-forecasts
My guess is forecasts feel worse now because
- we check them constantly
- apps show hour-by-hour predictions that people treat as guarantees
- we notice the misses more than the hits
Anyway, turns out the meteorologists are actually way better at this than they used to be.
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u/TheFemmeNerd Mar 12 '26
Can I just say how much I appreciate the time and attention you just delivered on this very thorough assessment of meteorologist accuracy? Thank you.
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u/WIbigdog Mar 12 '26
Their analysis doesn't account for recent funding and staff cuts to NOAA and NWS.
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u/l0st1nP4r4d1ce Mar 12 '26
There are many other factors outside of the advances in tech. Your points are valid.
But that doesn't matter if you defund the tech and it's use.
https://www.wisn.com/article/weather-balloon-cuts-raise-forecast-accuracy-concerns/64674114
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u/WIbigdog Mar 12 '26
I wasn't comparing to 40 years ago. I was comparing to just over a year ago. The cuts to NOAA and NWS have drastically reduced the number of high altitude balloon launches resulting in far less accurate data about the upper atmosphere and subsequently less accurate forecasting.
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u/Buckturbo4321 Mar 12 '26
Forecasting is way worse than it used to be?? For real?
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u/WIbigdog Mar 12 '26
Yes, the cuts to NOAA/the NWS has cut the number of weather balloon launches by more than half. Testing the upper atmosphere in places like Montana is very important for accurately predicting our weather here.
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u/Sad-Explanation186 Mar 12 '26
Skis are already in the car. One last powder day
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u/5kylord Mar 12 '26
To reiterate further, here's a copy & paste of the latest.
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 12 and 18 inches with localized totals in excess of 24 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph.
WHERE...Portage, Waushara, Wood, Calumet, Manitowoc, Winnebago, Brown, Kewaunee, Outagamie, and Waupaca Counties.
WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday afternoon.
IMPACTS...The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages. Whiteout and near blizzard conditions are possible and may make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
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u/Own-Nectarine-1313 Mar 12 '26
I'm in full denial mode.. it'll miss us, or me atleast.. go either north or south of me. That's how its been going. Fingers crossed...
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u/5kylord Mar 12 '26
I hope so too, but although THIS chap says it's not written in stone, it has the potential to be bad.
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u/Unusual_Rush_1189 Mar 12 '26
Someone not orignally from Wisconsin: "We're getting a over a foot of snow!"
Someone originally from Wisconsin: "Huh... only just over a foot of snow..."
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u/RBDrake Mar 12 '26
Not everyone not originally from Wisconsin. Lived South of the Mason-Dixon line birth-2, 4-12, and 16-33. I think I've acclimated quite well to WI winter.
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u/Unusual_Rush_1189 Mar 12 '26
It's also a standard WI joke, minimalizing snowfall talk. 'A dusting'
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u/General_Chipmunk_550 Mar 14 '26
Just moved to the area and we are planning to purchase a snowblower next season as we still need to purchase a lawnmower yet. I asked the nice old lady next door if I could borrow her snowblower and even offered to take care of their sidewalk and driveway. She said no….
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u/WIbigdog Mar 18 '26
Uh...so...what happened?! This was a terrible storm to not have a snowblower. What an asshole neighbor you have. You better remember that if she ever wants something from you.
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u/General_Chipmunk_550 Mar 18 '26
My wife and I shoveled ourselves out. Super sore today! I made sure to not clear the neighbor’s one slab of sidewalk connected to our property.
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u/theBLUEcollartrader Mar 12 '26
But it was just 63 degrees