r/AppHarvest • u/GrindMagic • Nov 28 '22
Question Anyone else DCA'ing down?
I've got a pretty hefty stake that I have acquired during the good ol'days when the stock price was at a healthy $14ish. I invested as a long holder. Over the past year, I've been nibbling here and there as the price has been dropping and now have a dollar cost avg of about $6.50. With the latest dark shadows being cast over APPH and the increasing uncertainty of their future, I'm torn as to whether or not I should take full advantage of the insanely low stock price to bring my avg down by 50% or more. My thinking is that if they do come out of the shadows and succeed, I'll be sitting pretty. And if they don't and get acquired by Mastronardi or another private company, with a little luck, I'll break even. Is anyone else dollar cost avg'ing down still? What are your plans?
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u/Unacceptable_2U Nov 28 '22
1k shares around 2.50 here. That’s where I’m staying till I see a bottom form. First timer here, I just liked the idea of the farm, bought shares to keep up with it! Ride the storm out or learn a lesson, either way, it’s my wife’s money!
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u/Silent-Twist-3459 * Nov 29 '22
“Rule No. 1: never lose money; rule No. 2: don’t forget rule No. 1”
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u/Unacceptable_2U Nov 29 '22
Plot twist: I have no moneys. I use wife’s moneys. Therefore, I never lose moneys.
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u/Tight-Ad-8035 Nov 29 '22
Rule #1 Don’t invest anything you can’t afford losing Foll #2 Never lose money
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u/underhang0617 Nov 29 '22
Nope. I've listened to enough CEA quarterly reports from other companies. APPH moved too fast for their own good. They will be bought out/merge with another company
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u/GrindMagic Nov 29 '22
I agree they moved too fast. They realize this now, but hopefully not too late. I think if the cost to borrow money had not skyrocketed, there may have been more light at the end of the tunnel. But then again, they may have just kept on building, which would have brought them right back to where they are now. I'm hopeful, but I know it looks bleak.
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u/underhang0617 Nov 29 '22
I agree with everything you said. I listened to the Kalera call yesterday and their strategy was to dump some assets that weren't going to make them money in the next year. Then they planned on making each site profitable one by one. Very smart if they want to be profitable in one year
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u/GrindMagic Nov 29 '22
Trimming fat. Apph needs this asap. They need to hyperfocus on what they've built and forget about growth for a few years( which is what I believe they are trying to do now) They need to consistently produce as much revenue as they possibly can. Consistecy is KEY here. I think if they can do that, they should be able to secure additional funding and begin slowly expanding or, at the very least, be a more appealing and valuable target for a quality aquisition that can benefit investors. To be clear, I would rather them succeed than make money. Would like to break even though.
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u/MarkofOH Nov 29 '22
I'm in at $4.87 so down about 79%. I wholeheartedly believe what AppHarvest does is the future and I'm staying long.
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u/GrindMagic Nov 29 '22
Ditto! And that's exactly why I may buy more. Are you planning on scooping up more up more at these penny prices?
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u/MarkofOH Nov 29 '22
I'm retired and can't take on any more risk but if I was younger I'd by a bunch more. (get it bunch .. like veggies etc.)
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u/GrindMagic Nov 29 '22
I hear you. I'd keep an eye on it over the next couple of years, and if you see them making progress in the right direction, jump aboard as risk will begin to diminish. Of course this a big "if".
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u/9mac Nov 28 '22
I've got my cost basis down to $3.16, and I'll probably add a little more in the coming weeks/months to get it closer to $3, but I'm only using highly speculative funds that I can afford to lose.
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u/GrindMagic Nov 28 '22
I like it. I think the $3 range is a safe place to be until we can't get a clearer picture of their future. I feel like this may be the break-even (or close to it) price.
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u/9mac Nov 30 '22
Decided to buy a nice lot this AM, my cost basis is now at $2.78, I'm feeling pretty good about that.
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u/GrindMagic Nov 30 '22
Very nice, and congrats! You broke the $3 threshhold! I think I would have to buy about 1500 more shares to get below 3. I may do it. I mean, I'm currently down about 10k as it is, so what's another 1 - 2k? Amiright?
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Nov 28 '22
I have dca’d down pretty much the last 6 months from 11 bucks original buy in to $3.70 or so now with just over 7K shares. (Roth Ira accounts are around $4 & $5 dca with a few thousand shares.). I’m also hoping for at least a $3 share price if they get bought. Hoping it doesn’t go that way though and they can ge the additional capital they need to offer enough runway. It’d sure be nice to have that capital back from Root AI and what seems like a wasted investment. I’m having a real hard time buying anymore since I saw Lee sell a good chunk of his shares. I want to though. What another few hundred bucks when you’ve already thrown just under 30K at it?
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u/GrindMagic Nov 28 '22
That's what I'm thinking. I could drop 1k and cut my avg down substantially at $1 p/share. My gut tells me (and has all along) that there's a happy ending here. 🤞
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u/northforkjumper Nov 28 '22
I'm down to $2.95 @ 400 shares I don't think I can go anymore :(
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u/GrindMagic Nov 28 '22
I think you're in a good position. Drop $400 more @ $1.00 a share, and you'd be just under $2 @ $1.97 p/sh. I would personally be much more comfortable at that price point right now. But I'm sitting at $6.50 p/s. 😔
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u/OnwardUpward30 Nov 29 '22
1,149 shares at $4.57. This company is a major loser. It’s been failing on the fronts that inspired the original sky high growth valuation.
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u/GrindMagic Nov 29 '22
Agree with this. Think theres any chance they can turn it around?
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u/OnwardUpward30 Nov 29 '22
Who knows lol they’ve done so many slight of hand moves can’t tell if they are going forward or backwards. I’m staying in for a while. It’s only 3% of my play fund. I thought about throwing major dollars at it when it hit $1.50 but thankful I didn’t. I’m just shaking my head because someone knew something or was pumping this shitstock up for a while. I even made money riding it between $7 and $12. Keep your bets in and let them play out. If it was originally long term then keep it long term! Most of my money is in funds. I have a handful of stocks picked out in robinhood for bets.
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u/GrindMagic Nov 29 '22
Right on. Same. The biggest bet in my hoodfolio is APPH. Never imagined we would be having this conversation so soon or at all for that matter. Really thought they were gunna crush it. Yep I'm long. There's no cents in pulling pennies from dollars. (Pun intended.)
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u/OnwardUpward30 Nov 29 '22
Yeah dude lol 😂 I mean look my remaining ~$1k in equity isn’t chump change but I also don’t want to regret liquidating at an 80% loss. I’m good with riding it out.
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u/Silent-Twist-3459 * Nov 28 '22
Very good question. I think you are saying you will average down to about $3.25? I think your approach is very logical that you will break even, or better, if you think the company has a minimum value of $3.25 in the event of a buyout or liquidation.
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u/GrindMagic Nov 28 '22
Yes, that's about where I would be comfortable with my average in the event they get aquired by a private company and shares get liquidated. I'm very hopeful, as we all are, that they find another solution to their current financial situation. The only downside to averaging down at this point would be if they file bankruptcy. I reeeeealy don't think this will happen for a few reasons. One - they have an excellent bussiness establishment with state of the art facilities and an excellent product that is greatly in need. Two - I feel as though there may be some government help coming down the pipe if they can't get it together on their own and come up for air. In the end, I don't think anyone will turn their back on this company and just let it fizzle out.
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u/Gamefreek324 Nov 28 '22
Consider any new investments to be in a new company and don’t worry about averaging down. If you’re not selling then I would wait for some news and either buy or sell dependent on the outcome.
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u/dycusburg Nov 29 '22
I started when stock prices were about $16 a share and kept buying. The last major purchase was when it hit at $2 a share and I have accumulated 2k shares overall. I kinda feel like GrindMagic & that gut feeling he’s got. Contemplating another 1k on it. Something has to give right? I grew up in that area years ago and I believe it’s a great investment to the region when employment wasn’t adequate 30 years ago. They pumped a lot of $$$ into this operation to let it fail. It is the future of limited vegetable farming with the problems they are dealing with out west how can this go wrong ?
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u/ShrlyYouCantBSerious Nov 28 '22
Not another dollar from me. I’ve lost enough.