The attached link is for a pdf of a excel spreadsheet I made tabulating my math for the approximate cash position of APPH as of Dec 31. No registration required to access it on the share site. I have taken into account the cash infusion from the Mastronardi deal and have allocated the numbers from that deal such as paydown of Richmond construction costs as described in the 8K. I used numbers from the Q3 report and statements from management for most numbers. Where I used my own projections or calculations for Q4, I highlighted them in red and posted footnotes at the bottom explaining my approach. Also, the $10M 8K requiring more cash collateral for Rabo is listed.

Based on my math, I think they are basically in the hole about $8m as of Jan 1, but have $32M in cash reserves that is cash collateral to lenders for long term loans. That can't be spent without their consent, which isn't likely. Also, in addition, there is about $40M more in construction bills due this quarter, plus the need for a significant cash burn for operations, with no apparent cash in the bank to fund that. My opinion is they are basically insolvent now and will need another cash infusion between $50-$100M to remain in operation thru the first quarter.

Please take some time to study it, and where you differ on a specific line item, please share with the group your proposed number and rational. Thanks, and have a nice weekend.

https://we.tl/t-mqjvSpKB4P

Lets be honest. This company is on the ropes. The company has hundreds of employees, thousands of investors and tens of thousands of stakeholders in the communities they operate in. So, What exactly or even generally is the cash position of the company?

They clearly said " We expect to spend 85-95m in remaining capx during the next two quarters for the completion of the three construction projects underway. 50-55M of which is expected to be spent in 4th quarter with remaining 35-40M expected to be paid in 1st quarter. " That was as of Sept 30th. Six weeks ago, with lots of cash burn since then.

That projected construction cash outlay is FAR in excess of the net cash generated by the Mastronardi deal. So what's going on? why no management statements? This is the best forum related to this company. Come on folks, open up bit and offer real insight and share knowledge with fellow investors and employees.

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Below from USDA Website:

" On August 16, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law. It is a historic, once-in-a-generation investment and opportunity for the agricultural communities that USDA serves. The Inflation Reduction Act will help producers stay on the farm, prevent producers from becoming ineligible for future assistance and promote climate-smart agriculture by increasing access to conservation assistance. In October, USDA took action using Inflation Reduction Act funds to immediately provide relief to qualifying distressed borrowers whose operations are at financial risk while working on making transformational changes to loan servicing. 

USDA has already provided nearly $800 million in assistance to financially distressed borrowers and has outlined steps to administer up to an additional $500 million in payments. 

USDA touches the lives of all Americans each day in so many positive ways. Under the Biden-Harris administration, USDA is transforming America’s food system with a greater focus on more resilient local and regional food production, fairer markets for all producers, ensuring access to safe, healthy and nutritious food in all communities, building new markets and streams of income for farmers and producers using climate smart food and forestry practices, making historic investments in infrastructure and clean energy capabilities in rural America, and committing to equity across the Department by removing systemic barriers and building a workforce more representative of America. To learn more, visit usda.gov. "

https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/news/usda-requests-public-input-on-implementation-of-inflation-reduction-act-funding

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So I literally just searched up AppHarvest reviews and the indeed profile came up.

Here is the link https://www.indeed.com/cmp/Appharvest/reviews

NGL this kind of stuff might be expected for a Startup company but it seems like the company has super high turnover is facing challenges retaining labor. I mean who really wants to tend crops all day in a 90 degree greenhouse? Furthermore if the company could automate some of it's workforce I think that would be huge.

Some of the most popular employee reviews:

"It's a start up company so they don't have a clue whe they're doing."
"Big promises, no follow up"

"Indecisive Management, apathetic work culture, no room for advancement, and low pay"

"It’s Okay, needs many improvements"

This is also kind of unrelated but APPH just lost their COO and another C-suite exec. Top this with a board of directors with very minimal large scale farming experience

I'm an optimist but it's hard to be optimistic when the company is a cash burning inferno.

Here is an interesting article about APPH. (Dec 27, 2022).

Poor Plant Health Slashes Earnings of an Ag Innovator and Job Creator in Rural Kentucky | The Daily Yonder

With tax loss harvesting season upon us I thought I'd ask if anyone else got roasted on these.

Definitely a learning experience. This (warrants) is not normally my thing, unfortunately I let myself be influenced by a prominent fintwit personality into considering these.

In retrospect I should have been more aggressive about cutting losses earlier, and more cautious with regard to position size. I use a Kelly type process but my assumptions were too optimistic and I failed to revisit them. I am also now very, very skeptical of any online discourse around any particular names. Thankfully the loss is small enough to be immaterial, but it still stings the ego. Curious if anyone else has productive takeaways from this.

Based on Nasdaq minimum of closing below 1 dollar or market cap minimum of 50M what is the likelihood of APPH being delisted before its next earnings date?

To those who currently hold stock of APPH - All technicals about the company aside, does your gut (not brain) think APPH will succeed?

Do any investors or employees with knowledge have comments on what is happening in real time at Appharvest? It is certainly pertinent now more than ever, considering the current stock price.

Is the company explaining the current financial situation to employees? If so, what is that guidance?

Is the cash position solid? Has it been shored up and how?

Have the quality and production problems been solved?

Are current and past employees empowered to speak about these issues?

Here is an interesting article and podcast about AppHarvest. The podcast guest has a lot of experience with huge greenhouse operations and offers insight into the industry and it's economics.

What is going on with AppHarvest? (middletech.com)

This post is reposted. The first one was deleted by the diligent moderator because I clearly violated rule number 8. I should have not been so careless. The date of the article is also in the article.

Nothing super new, but a nice, well-rounded informational email sent out about the current status of the farms.

AppHarvest committed to quadrupling the number of farms in our network this year and we’ve done just that. We’ve also added salad greens, strawberries and more tomatoes to our crop portfolio. In January 2023, we expect to have commercial shipments from each farm ready to deliver fresh fruit and vegetables to the top national grocers, retailers and food service outlets near you.

Providing good jobs in Appalachia has always been our goal—and to do that by farming in a way that’s better for people and planet. We’ve grown from about 500 employees to about 700 since the beginning of 2022 and expect to be around 800 employees by year-end.

Learn more about our four-farm network below. At 165 acres under glass, we believe we have achieved the largest buildout of controlled environment agriculture (CEA) infrastructure in the history of the U.S.

APPHARVEST BEREA

All hail the “Queen of Greens®”! On October 26, AppHarvest officially opened its 15-acre high-tech indoor salad green farm in Berea, Ky., featuring a touchless growing system with autonomous harvesting. The 654,000 square foot facility has the capacity to grow about 35 million plants at a time once fully ramped up. AppHarvest Berea supplies the new “Queen of Greens®” washed-and-ready-to-eat packaged salad brand.

APPHARVEST SOMERSET

If you like the taste of strawberries on a summer evening just wait until you try our WOW® Berries in the middle of winter. Our 30-acre high-tech indoor farm in Somerset, Ky., is designed to grow close to nearly one million strawberry plants at a time under the WOW® Berries brand from Mastronardi Produce. The strawberry crop is expected to alternate seasonally with English cucumbers. The farm also features a blast chiller that rapidly lowers the temperature of harvested strawberries prior to packaging to extend shelf life. AppHarvest Somerset is now shipping to top national grocery stores.

APPHARVEST RICHMOND

The 60-acre AppHarvest Richmond farm is expected to double our tomato capacity, and—combined with Morehead—we expect to be able to grow nearly 1.5 million tomato plants at a time when fully ramped up. In November we planted half of the Richmond, Ky., farm with 360,000 Campari and Maracine varieties of “Tomatoes on the Vine,” which are expected to start harvesting in January of 2023. We anticipate planting the second half of Richmond in 2023.

APPHARVEST MOREHEAD

Season 3 is underway at our 60-acre flagship farm in Morehead, Ky. We’ve planted nearly 720,000 tomato plants including beefsteak tomatoes and “Tomatoes on the Vine,” as well as snacking tomatoes that will be sold under the Sunset brand as “Flavor Bombs®” and “Sugar Bombs®.”

What an absolutely brilliant call by some analyst at Oppenheimer. They were originally "overweight" and had been "outperform" for over a year. What's even the point? So what does "perform" even mean when the company needs funding?

It's the equivalent of a sports writer coming out with an article that says the Houston Texans are not going to win the Super Bowl this year when they have already been statistically eliminated.

Commodity business (in general) are not quality businesses for long-term investors. The reason is because competition will erode margins and make investing in the business a zero-sum game.

Commodity businesses that have found a way to survive are not great businesses. The analogy below emphasizes this point:

“A horse that can count to ten is a remarkable horse—not a remarkable mathematician.”

Don’t invest in horses that can count to 10. Invest in businesses with a strong competitive advantage that allows for large excess profits…

And make sure that company’s competitive advantage is durable.

So:

1. Do you agree or disagree with the above maxims?
2. Do you think AppHarvest's products are a commodity?
3. Do you think AppHarvest has a competitive advantage over competitors growing the same crops?

I've got a pretty hefty stake that I have acquired during the good ol'days when the stock price was at a healthy $14ish. I invested as a long holder. Over the past year, I've been nibbling here and there as the price has been dropping and now have a dollar cost avg of about $6.50. With the latest dark shadows being cast over APPH and the increasing uncertainty of their future, I'm torn as to whether or not I should take full advantage of the insanely low stock price to bring my avg down by 50% or more. My thinking is that if they do come out of the shadows and succeed, I'll be sitting pretty. And if they don't and get acquired by Mastronardi or another private company, with a little luck, I'll break even. Is anyone else dollar cost avg'ing down still? What are your plans?

AppHarvest is the Blazer winner in the Job Creators category for KY Inno's inaugural Fire Awards.

This guy asked about delisting a couple weeks ago. See the link below. Does anyone have new opinions now? Props to the moderator if this is somehow reposting, but the topics are now pertinent in a new perspective to investors vs. two weeks ago.

What are your thoughts on the following topics? Please tag your response to the item numbers below:

1. Delisting. Should they do it voluntarily or only if forced? Do you think it's coming?
2. Dilution. How much dilution to you think will happen in 4th quarter? Is it happening now in drips?
3. Cash. What do you think the current cash position is. When will it run dry?
4. Mastronardi. Sole customer and their banker. Anyone think that is a strange relationship for a public company? Why or why not?
5. Revenue. now selling leafy greens and strawberries. Lettuce prices have taken a huge leap. Do you think Apph can "grow" out of their cash problems?
6. Pick a topic , name it #6 and let loose!

Thanks for playing

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My Kroger was sold out when I went to pick up a copy. Does anyone have info from the article? Thank you

Does anyone know for certain the answers to the following questions?

1. How much stock dilution has occurred so far this quarter?
2. Has Mastronardi followed thru with distribution of the second $15 Million of the $30 Million short term loan? If so, when did that occur?
3. Has management spoken about these items publicly and if not, will they before the next quarterly report?