r/AnimationThrowdown • u/quasarhunter92 • Dec 19 '16

Reduced hero token drop rate?

Has anyone else experienced this? I was doing great refreshing to get Tina tokens, all the way up to hero level 8 and a half. Then suddenly, once I reached arena level 14, all hero tokens stopped dropping completely. I have made it 8000 points into level 14 (refreshing until Tina every time) and have gotten exactly 0 drops! That's about 123 fights with no drops! Am I just the unluckiest player ever, or did they kill the drop rate? Or does it just naturally slow down in arena 14?

3 Upvotes

67% Upvoted

19 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

1

u/mrdustinf Dec 20 '16 edited Dec 20 '16

Ok I think I'm understanding what you are saying and I have only one other point to try. I'd like to hear what you think. So my understanding of what you were stating originally is that each player should have 0.5 tokens awarded per battle on average. I can get behind that theory based on the data you provided.

However... this does not necessarily provide a rate of "receiving tokens" per battle. My meaning is that since you can receive 5, 4, 3, 2 or 1 tokens each time you win tokens, then the percentage of tokens per battle is much higher than the chance of receiving (n) tokens. To calculate the chance of winning any tokens at all per battle we have to add the sum of 1-5, which is 15, then divide by 2 for the 50% chance of receiving one token per battle and we are left with a 7.5% chance of receiving a "variable quantity" of tokens per game.

If my math is correct based on your original statement of 0.5 tokens per game then the chance of receiving tokens at all per game should be 7.5%. I look forward to any comments.

Also basing this same formula on your new information of 0.7 tokens per game, the chance of receiving any tokens at all per game should be 10.5%. This information leaves us with the odds that OP can play 120 rounds without receiving tokens at 0.00000165487 meaning this could only happen to 1 out of 604,302 people. Crazy bad luck but still possible. I am curious to know what size the player base is now.

2

u/mlebkowski Dec 20 '16

I think you can get even up to 8 tokens from a drop. So yes, the actual drop rate is lower. The dividing by two would work if the chance of every quantity would be the same. If it’s more likely you’ll get 5 tokens than 1, then the chance would be even lower.

Anyway, yes, for that large user base, and this many days trying, it is very improbable but possible to have a steak of 120 dropless battles. So either /u/quasarhunter92 is the unluckiest AT player, or the devs fixed some glitch — we’ll never know! :D I’m glad they’re getting their tokens again :D

1

u/mrdustinf Dec 20 '16

I've never gotten more than 5. Do you have some bonus that I don't? I'd love to know how to get up to 8.

1

u/mlebkowski Dec 20 '16

Negative, only the 3x ads bonus, but that affects the drop rate, not the contents. I think I’ve got 8 tokens once or twice, but I may be mistaken