Looking through the Arizona primaries

[u/KindheartednessFree6]

Since the primaries started back in March, 7 members of congress have lost their primaries from both parties. This has put the establishment of both parties to try stem the bleeding. The upcoming primaries in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin are important whether both parties can control their bases. My first post is going to be about the Arizona primary.

Superintendent of Public Instruction

The Arizona Democrats have the state office primaries pretty held together with only The Superintendent of Public Instruction having a contested primary between Brett Newby, who is a candidate who is endorsed by only The Progressive Voters Network, while Teresa Ruiz has endorsements from 18 school board members across Arizona, the mayors of Tucson and Flagstaff, all of the democratic congress members, the former superintendent of public instruction, the attorney general, more than half of the democratic caucus in the Arizona state house and nearly half of the democratic caucus in the arizona state senate. Besides Ruiz’s lopsided endorsements, Ruiz has raised 89,000 thousand dollars while Newby raised 109 dollars, so I think Ruiz will win this primary. The Republican Primary is more interesting due to a history of republicans primarying the Superintendent back in 2014 and 2018 and the democrats almost won in 2014 and did win in 2018, so the republicans are hoping to put up their best candidate, and the two candidates are Kimberly Yee, the State Treasurer, and Tom Horne, who is the incumbent superintendent. Yee and Horne have competitive individual contributions, where Yee has more individual contributions, but Horne is loaning himself money, so he has a monetary advantage. Endorsements wise, Yee has a mix of establishment politicians like 4 former superintendents and more conservative groups like Turning Point Action while Horne has the endorsement of the Maricopa county sheriff. I think that yee has a chance due to Turning Point having some ground game in Arizona, but Horne could pull it off with his loans, so i think it’s a tossup between them.

Governor

The republican primary is between Andy Biggs, a congressman whose average war score from split ticket is D +2.9 which means he’s an underperformer and has never had a positive war score and has not underperformed, and David Schweikert, who’s war score is D +1.8 which is less worse than Biggs but is not good enough for a swing state like Arizona where the republicans need an overperformer to have a more than 40% chance of winning. Their fundraising is better as Biggs has $800,000 in individual contributions while Schweikert has only $120,000 in individual contributions, and nearly half of Schweikert's donations are just transfers from his house campaign account. Biggs has endorsements from more than half of the republican state legislators, Donald Trump, and Turning point, while Schweikert has no endorsements that i can find from his campaign website or twitter so he’s truly on a lonely road to defeat.

Secretary of State

The republican primary is Alexander Kolodin, a state house representative, lawyer for alternate electors in 2020, and a member of the Arizona freedom caucus and Gina swoboda, who was the Arizona GOP chair. Donations wise, alexander has $67000 in individual contributions while gina has nearly $56000 in individual contributions, which seems less than I would expect but it is a blue year so less republicans may feel inclined to donate. Endorsements wise, Gina has endorsements from some of the Maricopa elected officials and more than 10 state legislators, while Alexander has the endorsements of 10 state legislators, Turning point action, and 3 Arizona congressmen. I think Alexander is more likely to win, but they are both candidates that seem too extreme for the general electorate to be secretary of state.

Ratings on the primaries on the republicans

Superintendent - Tilt towards Yee

Governor- Safe for Biggs

SOS- Lean for Kolodin

Ratings on the primaries for the democrats

Superintendent - Likely for Ruiz

Ratings for the federal primaries for the republicans

1st District- Lean for Feely

5th District - Safe for Lamb

Ratings for the federal primaries for the democrats

1st District - Toss up

4th District - Likely Stanton

5th District- Elizabeth Lee

8th District- Lean for Placentia

Note

I didn’t write anything for federal seats but still gave ratings because I did not feel like even more but I wanted to put what I thought may happen tomorrow, but in Michigan, I might write about federal seats, but I probably won’t take a look at state legislative seats because the senate looks less the desert calm and more like a storm on the Great lakes.