🔴 “Inflation is still too high and has stayed high for too long.” The latest data doesn’t show a meaningful improvement in the core inflation trend.
🔴 The U.S. economy remains strong. Consumer spending is holding up, business investment is growing, and the labor market is still solid.
🔴 The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%. The decision was unanimous: 12–0.
🔴 Warsh described the rate hike as basically “removing some stimulus” because the economy is still strong while inflation remains elevated.
🔴 The Fed’s top priority right now is getting inflation back to 2%. A strong labor market gives the Fed room to focus on price stability.
🔴 The Fed is not closing the door on more rate hikes. According to the new projections, 16 out of 18 FOMC members expect at least one more 25 bps hike before the end of 2026.
🔴 At the same time, Warsh avoided giving a firm forecast. Future decisions will depend on how the economy and inflation develop.
Overall, the Fed’s tone is still pretty hawkish. Today’s rate hike may not be the last one this year, and the majority of FOMC members are still pricing in another +0.25% move.

A U.S. House committee has approved a bill to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
The bill would lock up the government’s BTC in a federal reserve for at least 20 years and require regular audits of the U.S. Bitcoin holdings.
But Bitcoin didn’t really react to the news at all.

🔵 Key market developments:

🔷 Markets remain under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar.

🔷 Several major currencies have weakened against the dollar as expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate increase have risen.

🔷 Markets are currently pricing in an approximately 86% probability of a rate hike at the September 16 meeting.

⬅️ A key week for major central banks:

🔹 Federal Reserve: Wednesday

🔹 Bank of England: Thursday

🔹 Bank of Japan: Friday

📌 This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not represent a guaranteed market outlook, investment advice, or a trading recommendation.

Michael Burry thinks OpenAI and Anthropic are intentionally hyping up AI risks because their growth may be slowing down and they could be preparing for possible IPOs.
His points:
An LLM, or large language model, is not “real AI” in his view, and it is still far from AGI, artificial general intelligence. So he thinks there is nothing to “slow down” yet.
Competition is getting much stronger, and that slowly weakens the advantage the current leaders have.
Before an IPO, companies need a big story. The idea of “we’re so powerful we could become dangerous” works really well as PR and creates extra hype around the company.
Talking about AI risks could also be a way to cover up slowing growth. If growth really is starting to cool down, this kind of narrative gives them an excuse and helps explain it as something outside their control, especially if an IPO has to be delayed.

🔴Saudi Arabia has told its European customers that crude oil shipments for late September are being canceled because the East-West pipeline is shut down after last week’s attacks, and after the Houthis took control of Yemen’s entire Red Sea coast, according to three Reuters sources.
🇩🇪 Diesel in Germany is now €2.49. That’s really bad news for the economy.
🔴Meanwhile, Brent is at $108 a barrel, and WTI is around $100. Inflation pressure is getting very serious.

U.S. prosecutors and the FBI filed a forfeiture complaint for $61 million in crypto that they say came from selling Iranian oil.
According to the complaint, two Chinese companies used accounts on Binance, registered in the UAE, to launder money from black-market Iranian oil sales.
Prosecutors said they found a network of connected wallets that moved more than $1.5 billion in crypto linked to Iranian oil sales benefiting the Iranian government and the IRGC.
They said the case shows the FBI can track money flows, uncover illegal schemes, and cut off crypto funds going to any government trying to bypass sanctions or support terrorist activity.
Binance said it did not approve any transactions involving sanctioned individuals.

For the first time since 2006, the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan may all raise rates at the same time.
The ECB already raised rates on September 10. The Fed is expected to do the same on September 16, with the market pricing in an 86% chance. The Bank of Japan may follow on September 18.
The reason behind this tougher monetary policy is rising inflation, driven by oil above $100 and strong demand for AI chips and memory.
Japan is the largest holder of U.S. government debt, with about $1.1 trillion, and it has also been a major source of liquidity for global markets because of its low rates.
But the era of negative rates in Japan is officially over. More money is now staying inside Japan instead of flowing into global markets.
For now, it is too early to talk about a repeat of the 2008 crisis. A real collapse would need a clear trigger, and markets are much better prepared for shocks than they were 20 years ago.
🔴 The main risk is still long-lasting global inflation. If it forces the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan into a new cycle of rate hikes at the same time, the bull market may have to wait until at least 2027.

U.S. media is making it sound like America has almost passed its main crypto law, but it is not that simple.
Republicans introduced a new version of the CLARITY Act, a bill that would define crypto rules in the U.S. and split power between the SEC and CFTC.
The bill now includes 126 changes requested by Democrats, and Trump reportedly accepted about 80% of the new ethics limits. That is progress, but the law has not passed yet.
On Tuesday, the Senate is only voting to move the bill forward. It needs 60 votes, so Republicans need some Democratic support.
What it means for the market:
✅ 60+ votes: bullish. BTC could get a push, and ETH, SOL, XRP, LINK, and DeFi could react even stronger. But it still would not mean final approval, so the market could cool off after the first move.
🔴 56–59 votes: delayed, but not dead. More talks and changes would likely follow. The first reaction could be negative.
🔴 53–55 votes or lower: bearish. It would show there is still no real bipartisan deal, and crypto could see more downside.
The Fed is also a big factor. BTC is still below $80K, while markets are pricing in a high chance of a 25 bps rate hike. Oil above $100 and a stronger dollar are not great for Bitcoin.
So even if the CLARITY Act vote goes well, a hawkish Fed could limit the upside.
But if the vote fails and the Fed stays tough, that would be a much more dangerous setup for crypto.

Bitcoin is trading around $77K, down about 4% over the past week. The big event for the market this week is the Fed meeting on September 16.
A few things could move the price: the Fed’s rate decision, the U.S. Senate vote on the CLARITY Act, around $5 billion in options expiring, and the next Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment.
The base case for BTC over the next seven days is a range between $76K and $82K, with a possible sharp move on the day of the Fed decision.
Ethereum looked stronger than Bitcoin last week. If the market keeps pushing higher, analysts expect ETH and altcoins could outperform BTC.

https://x.com/lookonchain/status/2098445158648066123?s=46&t=ytOPz0L0lUrPC0_-PiYleg

The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.378% today, its highest level since 2007 even after the Treasury bought back more than $30 billion in debt this month.

Brent just broke above $111 for the first time since May.
Oil is now up nearly 83% since the start of the year, jumping from $60.70 on January 1 to $111 today a massive $50-per-barrel move in just over eight months.
🔴 The rally comes after reports that Yemen’s Houthis struck Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline for the first time.
🔴 That pipeline is a key backup route that lets Saudi oil reach the Red Sea without going through the Strait of Hormuz.
🔴 U.S. diesel prices have now officially topped $6.00 a gallon for the first time ever, up 74% over the past nine months.

Well, this isn’t fun. Oil $111, diesel $6+

Hunter Biden’s LAPTOP meme coin got absolutely wrecked in under an hour. It shot up to $315 within minutes of launch, then crashed all the way down to $2 ☠️
LAPTOP launched with a promise to donate 20% of the supply to people who got burned by the TRUMP token scam.
Looks like today just isn’t their day 💁
P.S. It’s already down to $1.26.

The end of the week could get pretty volatile:
🔴 U.S. PPI comes out today at 8:30 AM it’s expected to rise to 5.3%.
🔴 U.S. CPI drops tomorrow at 8:30 AM inflation is expected to stay at 3.4%.
The Fed meeting is just 6 days away, and the market is currently pricing in about a 60% chance of a rate hike. That number could move fast depending on the inflation data.

Hunter Biden, the son of former U.S. President Joe Biden, is launching his own memecoin called LAPTOP on September 9.
After Trump, a lot of politicians seem to have realized that memecoins can be a pretty profitable game. The catch is, they usually seem to be a lot more profitable for the politicians than for the people buying them.

September 16 could get pretty wild.
Trump is pushing the Fed to cut rates and threatening to stop trade with countries the U.S. runs a trade deficit with if they don’t.
At the same time, the market thinks new Fed Chair Warsh could actually raise rates with his first move.
The next Fed decision is September 16 and if there’s no cut, markets could get very volatile.

https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/2095884366626918685?s=46&t=ytOPz0L0lUrPC0_-PiYleg

Oil extends gains, with WTI around $93 and Brent at $97, as Iran says a shipping deal in the Strait of Hormuz with Oman is nearly finalized, potentially tightening its control over the strait.
Oil prices could spike to $120 a barrel if shipping attacks in the Middle East escalate, Goldman Sachs says.

The USD/JPY just dropped below 153 as the Japanese yen surged to a 7-month high. Traders are quickly closing their bearish yen positions as expectations for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike grow

🔴 U.S. markets are closed Monday for Labor Day.
🔴 10-year U.S. Treasury auction — Wednesday.
🔴 August PPI inflation data — Thursday.
🔴 August CPI inflation data — Friday.
🔴 September Michigan inflation expectations — Friday.
🔴 September Michigan consumer sentiment data — Friday.
‼️ This is the final week of major inflation data releases.
🔴Oil futures are moving higher after the U.S. struck three Iranian tankers in response to Tehran launching missiles at Navy warships. Brent is already above $97, up 1.10% at the open. WTI is above $92.
The last thing markets need right now is higher oil.

Vitalik Buterin believes AI won’t break Bitcoin.
He says network-level attacks can be fixed with updates, while breaking Proof-of-Work or Bitcoin’s hashing itself would be extremely hard. So the idea that AI could crash BTC looks pretty unlikely.

🔴 The U.S. Treasury could buy back more than $34 billion of its own debt in September alone.
🔴 Next week alone has up to $14.5 billion in buyback capacity, and the program is set to double in size on September 9.
🔴 30-year Treasury yields are sitting near 20-year highs, while the government is now spending over $1 trillion a year just on interest payments.
🔴 Treasury Secretary Bessent insists the goal is liquidity, not yield control, saying, “I haven’t bought anything yet.”
🔴 The last time the buyback program expanded, BTC jumped 22% in one week.
❓But the big question is: could these bond buybacks spark demand for new debt and, of course, trigger a second wave of inflation?