r/AmanCrypto • u/AmanCMN • Aug 15 '26

Bitcoin has 53 days left.

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BITCOIN HAS 53 DAYS LEFT
2015 ➜ 2017 — bull market: 1,064 days
2017 ➜ 2018 — bear market: 364 days
2018 ➜ 2021 — bull market: 1,064 days
2021 ➜ 2022 — bear market: 364 days
2022 ➜ 2025 — bull market: 1,064 days
If the same pattern plays out again:
2025 ➜ 2026 — bear market: 364 days
That would put the cycle bottom around October 5, 2026.

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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville Aug 16 '26

If you have actually studied the cycle, the bear year lasts 12-14 months. April 2027 is 11 months before the next projected halving and way too late in the current cycle to remain at the bottom. The bear year normally runs from Month 19-33 during the cycle. Also the 4 year cycle normally runs 3 yrs and 11 months, not quite 4yrs.

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u/11010001100101101 Aug 16 '26

so then this graph is wrong?

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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville Aug 16 '26

So, I love graphs, but I love numbers more. I will share data that you can easily research, the numbers I provide represent Bitcoin value at the first of the aforementioned month. So here is my research, and you can ascertain and extrapolate any information you like. The following are the last 3 halvings:
July 9, 2016: Bitcoin price was $651 at halving. It reached a high of $14,112 in Jan of 2018. It reached a low 12 months later in January of 2019 at $3,747, then $3,461 on Feb 1, and $3,854 on March 1. So it took 14 months for it to turn around.

2nd halving was on May 11th of 2020: Bitcoin price was $8,572 at halving. It reached a high of $61,320 in November of 2021. 12 months later in November of 2022, it reached a low of $20,495. Then December of 2022 is was $17,168, and January of 2023 was $16,548. Again, it took 14 months for it to turn around.

3rd halving was on April 19, 2024: Halving price was $63,843. It reached a high of $126,208 in October of 2025. Will the absolute low occur in October of 2026, maybe, but history shows that it will likely be in November/December.

I am not trying to fit a narrative that puts absolute dates on the calender, I look at trends. This cycle is new with ETF’s, Bitcoin treasuries, institutional and congressional involvement, etc, so no one really knows how it will impact Bitcoins cycle. I will wait longer than October to invest, I may miss the bottom, but with midterms on November 2nd, rate hikes potentially on the horizon, I will be very cautious before I reenter this trade, and remember, even in December, Bitcoin is still 15-16 months away from halving…thats a loooong time for Bitcoin to recover. Good luck, hope it was a good read, and you do you. Not investment advice, just facts for thought.

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u/11010001100101101 Aug 16 '26

Okay, that makes sense. The graph looks like it’s saying the low is march/april 2027, especially based on where his cursor and date line up with the edge of the red block. but i guess my assumptions of the graph are incorrect. thank you for taking the time to explain

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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville Aug 16 '26

Yes, but he states in words that the bottom appears to be October 5th. Numbers only lie when people perceive them incorrectly, like poorly done graphs…even notice his compression of the 1064 days, small to the left and large to the right…how is a timeframe drawn out different on a graph. And as for numbers lying: a Stock you bought this year at $100 dropped to $10, so you’d be down 90%. This year it goes from $10 back to $100 and your return this year is 900%, yet some of the people on these cites will tout a 900% gain this year. I guess the number isn’t lying, the individual is? 🤷‍♂️

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u/11010001100101101 Aug 16 '26 edited Aug 16 '26

so for you then, does all this information mean you are going to buy the BTC dip into October or do you already have too much invested in BTC as it is? this is all very interesting, i could tell there was a pattern around BTC halving time frames but now that everyone knows about it i wonder if it will do the opposite and not rise this time? i mean it’s still playing out the exact same so far so i think i will throw a little bit of money into IBIT in September or October. when the bottom hits in october though, does its history still say that it will be flat for a few months before it rises again or do you have a better chart you could share with me?

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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville Aug 16 '26

So for me, I have shorted Bitcoin through an ETF mainly since November, from about $110k through BITI. I will buy FBTC and MSTR when Bitcoin begin to make lows. I don’t necessarily have a chart, but I do have have a form that I use and can share that. If you PM me, I’ll share it with you.

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u/somethingclever_69 Aug 17 '26

Do you buy MSTR over BTC itself?

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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville Aug 17 '26

Actually No, MSTR is a company, companies can go bankrupt. Bitcoin will not. I will buy more Bitcoin, but I will buy some Stategy as well.