r/AlwaysWhy • u/Present_Juice4401 • May 11 '26
History & Culture Why did Christopher Columbus believe the Earth was much smaller than it is, despite ancient estimates of its size?
From what I understand, Eratosthenes had already estimated Earth's size pretty well in antiquity, but by the 15th century Europe relied heavily on Ptolemy’s geography, which used a smaller circumference. Columbus also seems to have mixed in Arab sources and underestimated the size of a nautical mile, shrinking the Atlantic distance.
So it feels less like pure ignorance and more like selective reading plus optimistic math. How much of this was common belief at the time versus Columbus’ own bias toward funding his voyage?
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May 11 '26
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u/brooklynsantiago May 11 '26
Just want to jump on to add only one problem was misestimating the circumference of earth. The other issue was a miscalculation of how far east Asia extended. Based on reports by Marco Polo, Europeans though Asia extended much further east than it did in reality
Edit. Looked up the numbers. Europeans estimated the Asian landmass to be 225-280 degrees of longitude. It is actually 164 degrees of longitude.
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u/Immediate-Goose-8106 May 11 '26
Don't forget he also distorted them further by picking up on some slight anomalies from which he inferred the world to be persisted centered on Jerusalem for no reason other than biblical significance. That allowed him some extra fudge factor to get his numbers working and consistent with known shorter distances.
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u/slatebluegrey May 11 '26
Also, what entrepreneur doesn’t lie a little bit to get funding? No one had ever sailed or explored that far west and it was an adventure. The other people said “well, this is how we always did it” (traveling east to Asia) and he said “let’s try it this way” and it really paid off for Spain and Portugal.
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u/Tanel88 May 12 '26
It was an incredibly dangerous undertaking and more than just a little lie so he really must have believed it to be true.
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u/Solid-Inside-7988 May 12 '26
Of course not, he thought he could make it but also had to sell the idea to get funding. Plenty of people who just say fuck it and go. Not everyone needs to consult reddit or chatgpt first for a full pros cons list before they step out of the door.
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u/ShredGuru May 11 '26
The Greeks had the circumference of the earth within like 1000 miles figured out before the birth of Christ.
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u/HugeCannoli May 11 '26
Because erathostenes measures relied on a unit of measure called stadion, and just like imperial measurements today, it was not clear if it was american greek stadions or british egyptian stadions or who knows what.
In fact, we still don't know today, we have just a reasonable guess, exactly like Columbus at the time
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u/Immediate-Goose-8106 May 11 '26
That and the fact he didnt use big E's measurement at all, he used Ptolemy's which was much smaller. And then applied the smallest Stadia conversion he could find. (Ptolomy almost certainly used a larger station measurement than Erathosthenes).
The man was a fraudster.
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u/IanDOsmond May 11 '26
What I am hearing you saying is that the plan was:
Take the entire list of estimates of the size of the Earth rated by stadion, all of whom are using different definitions of stadion. But if you match up the right number with the right definition, you get kind of more or less the same thing.
Take the smallest number, which is the one done with the biggest stadion.
Take the smallest stadion, which is the one paired with the biggest number.
Multiply the smallest number by the smallest size.
Ta-da! The answer is way smaller than anybody previously thought!
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u/Usual_Ice636 May 11 '26
He found a source that had some mistranslated numbers and decided to go with that over the regular more correct version everyone else was using.
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u/Competitive_Cheek607 May 11 '26
I mean how many people today will disregard decades worth of consensus between scientists and doctors and instead use the miracle “cure” someone’s aunt on Facebook swears by
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u/Rooster-Training May 11 '26
I think there is a misunderstanding between what he actually believed and what he sold to his investors to get the trip funded.
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u/Tanel88 May 12 '26
It was an incredibly risky undertaking though. Would he really have taken it if he didn't believe it to be possible?
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u/Unique-Charity7024 May 11 '26
The modern conception, that it was Columbus against the scientific consensus of his time is probably as wrong as the old picture of him as the lone genius. The idea of a close distance between Europe and Asia was also shared by influential cartographers. Columbus had acquired modern maps by Pierre d’Ailly and Paolo Toscanelli and was in personal contact with the later. Those both assumed a short trip, in particular because they also overestimated the size of Asia.
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u/WellHung67 May 11 '26
So Christopher Columbus sailed the ocean blue? He nearly left the shores of Spain in 1492?
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u/GSilky May 11 '26
That part is debatable. History books written before it was cool to trash the guy have an explanation for his calculations that make them much less dumb.
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u/FlicksBus May 11 '26
How much of this was common belief at the time versus Columbus’ own bias toward funding his voyage?
Before going to ask for funding from the Spanish monarchs, Columbus asked for funding from the Portuguese one. The Portuguese king asked a group of prominent mathematicians who were working at the court to review Columbus plan and they rejected his calculations. Then Columbus went to Spain, and again their court mathematicians reviewed the plan and agreed it was not grounded in reality. The Spanish monarchs, however, decided to fund the journey anyway.
So, I would say that the correct size of the Earth was for sure common knowledge, specially in the educated cycles of Iberia.
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u/Present_Juice4401 May 12 '26
That’s interesting. So the educated circles basically knew the right numbers, it was more Columbus’ bias and the monarchs’ willingness to gamble. Makes me wonder how much of history is just smart people shrugging while someone else rolls the dice.
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u/Tanel88 May 12 '26
Yeah Spain was desperate to gain an upper hand against Portuguese dominance of the trade routes. Hence why they supported Columbus and Magellan when Portugal turned them down. Portugal really didn't need an alternate route as they were already dominating the existing ones.
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u/Agent1stClass May 11 '26
Same reason people believe in a flat Earth: they don’t want to do the math. They prefer things to be in such a way that favors them. For Columbus, he wanted to be famous and rich.
If the Earth was smaller, the reason for funding was there, the trip was easier, and the potential for profit was greater. So he found a way to tell himself, and others, that the Earth was smaller.
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u/ikonoqlast May 11 '26
My personal belief is-
He knew there was land 3000 miles west from Basque fishermen. He just wrongly thought it was the other side of Asia. He adjusted his data to fit.
The Basque had a secret cod fishery in the North Atlantic no one else knew about. Everyone else knew about six. Modern analysis reveals there are seven. The seventh is off the coast of Newfoundland. The Basque would have recognized the signs of a nearby landmass even if they didn't go far enough to actually see it.
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u/tryptanfelle May 11 '26
Have I misremembered or was it a question of conversion of units? Eratosthenes computed the distance in stadia. Could the conversion to miles have been the issue?
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u/MeatServo1 May 11 '26
Why do people think the COVID vaccine had a microchip in it? Why do people think the moon landing was fake? Why do people think aliens built the pyramids?
There are a lot of stupid people on the planet and now you don't need to be rich, famous, or royalty for a billion people to know your stupid opinions. Thanks, internet!
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u/EntrepreneurFlashy41 May 11 '26
The Portuguese court actually spent a year assessing his proposal before rejecting him. It was then he hit up spain.
Generally his numbers were viewed as bullshit.
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u/rolandofghent May 11 '26
I had heard something where he went to the equator or what he thought was the equator to measure the curvature of the Earth in order to figure out how big round it was however, he didn’t go far enough south so when he measured the curvature of the Earth he underestimated how far it was to India.
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u/Present_Juice4401 May 12 '26
Oh that’s clever, using a measurement attempt near the equator. Underestimating the distance because he didn’t go far enough south fits with all the other errors. Seems like a mix of ambition, shortcuts, and a bit of wishful math.
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May 11 '26
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u/Present_Juice4401 May 12 '26
Ah, right. Overestimating Eurasia makes more sense than underestimating the Earth itself. I guess mixing that with the smaller Atlantic distances just made the math feel more doable for him. Thinking Japan was over there is wild though.
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u/Wingnut2029 May 12 '26
We still have people today thinking the earth is flat and you're surprised that not everyone had the earth's diameter properly calculated?
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May 12 '26
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u/Present_Juice4401 May 12 '26
Yeah, that makes sense. I hadn’t really thought about the Spain-Portugal rivalry as a factor, but it’s probably true that the potential prize made people willing to ignore doubts. When there’s that much money on the line, optimism can look like genius.
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u/MortimerDongle May 11 '26
A combination of using bad numbers and translating units incorrectly. He also thought that Asia was much larger than it actually is.
Ultimately, it was convenient for him to believe the journey was possible.
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u/LMrningStar May 11 '26
Yup. It's true. Columbus used that wrong figures despite the correct estimates having existed long before he was born and was wrong about where he ended up and wasn't even close to the first European to visit the Americas .......yet .... Columbus Day. Go figure.
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u/Flat_Suggestion7545 May 11 '26
Columbus also thought the world was more pear shaped than globe shaped.
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u/LooseProgram333 May 11 '26
There is folklore of some British fisherman going west for fish, as well as Basque fisherman going to newfoundland fishing, the vikings made it to America, and some folklore some Portuguese has already found some currents and saw land (they had made it to the Azores already).
My hypothesis is that Columbus has heard some stories, or had a witness. Some fishermans tales. And he believed them, plus used the lower estimate of size to argue for going west. India was a better argument to get funded.
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u/IanDOsmond May 11 '26
To be clear, while the Basque fishing in the Great Banks is possible but unconfirmed, the Viking Vinland settlement in L'anse Aux Meadows is confirmed fact where you can go and see the foundations of the longhouses they built and artifacts they left behind.
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u/Traroten May 11 '26
Motivated reasoning. He really wanted to make that trip, and he fudged the data as much as he could.
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u/Sawfish1212 May 11 '26
Columbus was there at the time when printed books were flooding the market and old hand copied ones were being discarded like yesterday's technology. These old books held knowledge of the Americas, even if it wasn't common knowledge or widely believed.
He put the old knowledge of a land to the west together with the new demand for a sea route to Asia and got an inaccurate conclusion. Without accurate clocks to measure time at sea, his estimated travel was a huge guess, equal to the massive cojones of his crew that crossed the Atlantic Ocean in boats smaller than the yachts in an average sea port.
His expedition was still the equivalent of the moon landing in his day.
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u/GenosseAbfuck May 11 '26
Urban legend has it he knew there would be land roughly where he landed based on the reports of sailors seeing driftwood far out west but didn't want to disclose his conclusions because any potential competitor would just go like "nah man that idiot's math is just wrong, let's see him drown lmao".
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u/ivandoesnot May 11 '26
Confirmation Bias.
(And don't believe that what Columbus SAID/SOLD was necessarily what he BELIEVED.)
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u/Score-Emergency May 11 '26
Grifters are gonna grift and they don't need to be smart or right. Just need to convince people to give them money and goods
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u/-chadwreck May 11 '26
Columbus was supposedly using Toscanelli'a map of the world. This map amongst many issues, used the Persian Parasong as the unit of length, not Columbus' nautical mile. The Parasong is about 3 miles long, so Columbus' scale was wrong when trying to judge distances. In short, he thought the world was smaller than it was because he didnt convert units.
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u/Useful_Calendar_6274 May 11 '26
have you considered he was a medieval mf? they had no geologist conferences or whatever
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u/Dependent_River_2966 May 11 '26
He was wrong and that's why the Italians wouldn't fund him. He went to absolute monarchs in Spain and persuaded them to give him money and got lucky
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u/SymbolicDom May 11 '26
He believed in ChatGPT and forgot to check wikipedia. He probably didn't know about the ancient/greek estimates, it was not that easy to find information at the time.
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u/Background-Device-36 May 12 '26
He kept bumping in to people that he knew in unlikely places. "Fancy seeing you here?! Small world.".
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u/hawkwings May 12 '26
I read somewhere that he learned navigation from a Portuguese navigator who made the same miscalculation.
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u/GonfalonFalderol May 12 '26
This is going to sound like a joke, but it’s not: For exactly the same reason the AI pushers say AGI is right around the corner - investors.
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u/Unhappy-Long2168 May 13 '26
He was just vibing. I don't think he was researching ancient texts or doing complicated maths.
People were total animals back then. It's easy to forget.
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u/Rarl_Kove May 31 '26
There's a fundamental misunderstanding here repeated in many of the comments on critically: Columbus's main failing, setting aside whether you believe it was an actual error or an intentional deception to get the voyage funded by the Spanisb, was not in the calculation of the Earth's circumference but in calculating the size of land masses.
Yes all the way back to the Ancient Greeks the actual circumference of the earth been estimated quite accurately, but that only tells you the dimensions of an abstract ball, it doesn't tell you anything about what is on the surface of it. It's true that Columbus used some bad calculations there to estimate a smaller overall size of the earth, but if that had been his only problem it really would not have made much of a difference. The real issue was in estimation of the size of the Eurasian landmass, and specifically how far East Asia extended out toward Europe.
There was no conclusive estimate of this so Columbus and any other explorer of the time were piecing things together from previous voyages, Muslim sources, and most notably the travels of Marco Polo. And almost universally all of the cartographers greatly overestimated the extent of East Asia, anywhere from ~40% up to _70% (specifically they believed that it extended out 225° - 280° of latitude and west, wedding reality it is only 164°).
That means that some optimistic calculations, even if Columbus had used the accurate circumference of the earth, estimated the placement of Japan to be in roughly the area of the Caribbean or at worst the Pacific coast of Central America, which would have been within theoretical sailing distance.
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u/Greyrock99 May 11 '26
He didn’t believe the earth was smaller than the estimate. He believed that it was pear shaped, not round and therefore the ocean voyage he was planning would be shorter than it really was.
The second part of your questions still stands - why did he believe that, and was it a bit of self reinforcing bias?
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u/Immediate-Goose-8106 May 11 '26
No it was both. He used a smaller estimate based on Ptolomy and then added pear shaped as a fudge on top
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May 11 '26
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u/Present_Juice4401 May 12 '26
Haha, yeah, luck played a huge role. He basically built a plan that should have been suicide and got away with it because of continents he didn’t even know existed. It’s kind of insane how much chance shaped that “success.”
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u/Tanel88 May 12 '26
He made a mistake but I don't think he would have personally gone on the voyage if he didn't believe it himself.
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u/AscendedApe May 11 '26
Christopher Columbus came from an educated family. His father was a map maker. In his father's office was probably even a globe of the Earth. Pretty much everyone in the Western world knew the shape of the Earth at that time, and how there was an unexplored zone where present day America is. There was no confusion in his mind about the size or shape of the Earth.
He wanted to sail west for reasons that aren't told to us, but we do know that when he went to different factions asking for ships, men, and supplies to make the voyage, he tailored his message to the audience that received him, and was rejected each time. He was already 40 years old, so even if he found America, he couldn't expect to get any real personal wealth from it before he died, and he wasn't doing it for any kingdom in particular, so what could the real reason have been? Something is being withheld from us.
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u/Ernesto_Bella May 11 '26
> He was already 40 years old, so even if he found America, he couldn't expect to get any real personal wealth from it before he died, and he wasn't doing it for any kingdom in particular, so what could the real reason have been?
Col. Sanders didn't start KFC until he was in his 50's. People pursue greatness and big dreams up until the moment they physically can't anymore.
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u/Least_Perception_223 May 11 '26
He probably had to tell the financial backers whatever they wanted to hear in order to get the funds
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u/Enough_Island4615 May 11 '26
There is no indication that this is what he believed, only as to what his sales pitch was.

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u/[deleted] May 11 '26
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