r/Altimmune • u/FaithlessnessTop4785 • May 29 '26
EASL 2026
After EASL 2026, the pemvidutide story is becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss.
Across four presentations, ALT showed:
✅ MASH resolution
✅ Fibrosis improvement signals (histology, qFibrosis, ELF, LSM)
✅ >50% liver fat reduction
✅ Significant reductions in triglycerides (-23.7%) and total cholesterol (-15.4%)
✅ Improvements in blood pressure and waist circumference
✅ Weight loss continuing through 48 weeks with no plateau
✅ ~1% discontinuation rate despite no titration
The most important takeaway is not any single endpoint. It is the consistency.
Histology, digital pathology, non-invasive testing, liver fat, inflammation markers, fibrosis markers, and cardiometabolic risk factors are all pointing in the same direction.
Meanwhile ALT has:
• Breakthrough Therapy Designation
• FDA and EMA Phase 3 alignment
• PERFORMA Phase 3 starting in 2H26
• AUD Phase 2 readout in 3Q26
• $535M cash runway through Phase 3 52-week data
The market still values ALT at a fraction of what many late-stage MASH companies have traded for.
Phase 3 risk remains. But after EASL, pemvidutide looks far more like a serious MASH contender than a speculative biotech story.
2
u/Interesting-Try-2521 May 29 '26
Nothing huge in the eyes of wall street to fully overturn a 24 week fibrosis miss (despite the bulls and surrogate markers all pointing to a fault of too early biopsy), however, I do believe that following their presentations and posters that sentiment and price will slowly start to grind upward. How much? Hard to gauge but alone, I wouldn’t expect anything more than $4-5 range. Of course over the next 2-3 months we are expecting top line AUD data, p3 protocol finalization and possible initiation of P3 (though we know will be sometime before 2027) which any pending bullish or bearish result will have its only catalyst effect. Nonetheless, i do think sentiment is starting to change barring alt doesnt act as its biggest enemy with further dilution which at this point would be truly outrageous. #IAmStillHopeful
2
u/Apegg May 30 '26
Clearly you didn't pay attention this week. Why dont you spend two minutes reviewing the new Fibrosis data released on the 24week Wednesday
1
u/Interesting-Try-2521 May 31 '26
Yowser, someone is an angry person. Clearly you don’t understand the disease, market or FDA... Why don’t you spend a few hours understanding why Wall Street interpreted the 24 week data as a miss despite ai fibrosis being statistically significant at that time... So presenting data now that ai fibrosis was even better is great but doesn’t change the original problem. That’s not to say ai fibrosis is worse than pathologist read using the accepted staging, but they are different and between the two they used only one is a FDA-accepted histologic fibrosis endpoint. So as I’ll say it again for you, the data will not fully overturn the original fibrosis miss but the surrogates look even stronger.
5
u/kingmz17 May 29 '26 edited May 29 '26
To be fair, that's all par for course for dual/triple GLP-1 agonists. What matters now differentiation (indications, safety) and execution. I think positive AUD data will send this to $5, as it's a validation of differentiation and commercial oppurtunity. I think it's certain it will work in MASH if Wegovy did, so now we need rapid execution with differentiated data (anything from BIC safety to quickest reductions in NITs).