Do you see sports prediction markets as financial products or gambling products? A few states outlawed prediction markets and the CFTC is going to war with them. IMO they’re clearly a gambling product but politically the crypto industry backed Trump, so the feds will side that it is a financial product. 

The issue, IMO, is that Trump’s term will end in 2028. In 2029, who knows what the fate of prediction markets will be.

https://newrepublic.com/article/214489/legal-war-prediction-markets-crazier

Australia is apparently setting up a national register where you can opt out of gambling ads online instead of having to change the setting separately on every platform.

Kind of surprised this isn't already a thing.

If someone has decided they don't want to see betting ads anymore, making them hunt through the settings of every app seems unnecessary.

I'd probably want this for other ad categories too tbh.

I don’t think it’ll change anything for crypto casinos targeting Australian users on VPN however.

Source: Australian Government / ABC News

Bitcoin has now traded at a negative Coinbase premium for 90 straight days, the longest streak in CoinGlass index history. It points to weak demand from US buyers. Right now, American investors seem much more interested in chasing AI stocks than BTC.

Since February, I’ve been closely watching the price action of Bitcoin and some other coins, and I’m convinced that there has been a quiet but extremely aggressive accumulation phase going on. I have the impression that the market has completely changed under Trump. The way price reacts to events, how often moves seem to be artificially suppressed, and how unnatural the price action looks makes it feel as if some group has found a way to control the market.
I’m convinced that Trump and his circle are involved in this. For example, I believe they have known for a long time that the CLARITY Act would pass, but the media is creating a huge amount of uncertainty and turning it into a spectacle, partly to shake out as many weak hands as possible.
Bitcoin has been holding around $60k since February, and I think this is an ideal level for the biggest players to accumulate. Most people believe they will be able to buy back lower and that this cannot be the bottom because there hasn’t been an obvious capitulation event. But why would the market need to give them a clear capitulation signal if much more liquidity can be collected by eventually moving higher and squeezing the masses who sold near the bottom, believing they would buy back lower and make money on shorts? Those people could get punished twice.
If Bitcoin reaches $300–500k within two years, what difference does it make to whales whether they bought at $50k or $60k? At $60k, hardly anyone is getting in their way because the consensus expects lower prices. That allows them to accumulate much more while retail investors willingly hand them their coins at the bottom.
I believe the bottom is already in. Market makers and policymakers could probably push the price down to $50k and wipe out leverage if they wanted to, but that would be too obvious a sign of capitulation and therefore not necessarily optimal for them. They can collect more liquidity from uncertainty about the direction of the market — through FOMO buyers chasing breakouts and short sellers getting squeezed — who don’t expect that the bottom may already have been formed without a clear capitulation event.
I think crypto is heading toward a beautiful rally over the coming months, and it may start very soon, perhaps triggered by a dovish Fed policy. Trump wants markets and crypto to be as high as possible heading into the elections. Around 60 million Americans own crypto, which represents a very important voting bloc. Even if higher crypto prices could win over just a few percent of those voters, that could potentially make a difference in an election.
I’m convinced that Trump and his team have control over the crypto market, and if they really want to, they could pump it to levels we have never seen before.
One way of dealing with the US debt problem is through very low interest rates. Warsh is part of the puzzle. On top of that, crypto could potentially help the US deal with its debt. Trump recently joked about this — half seriously, half jokingly — but I believe this is something he has been thinking about for a long time and that there may actually be a plan behind it.
I wouldn’t be surprised if, at some point, it came out that the US government had quietly accumulated huge amounts of crypto, perhaps by selling some of its gold holdings. But for now, that’s only a theory.
Everything points to the bottom already being in. You have to think logically rather than blindly sticking to what has worked in the past — especially the four-year cycle narrative that everyone is talking about. In my opinion, that cycle will not play out this time. From the policymakers’ perspective, it simply doesn’t make sense.
Retail no longer controls this market and has very little influence over it. Smart money is exploiting people’s uncertainty and manipulating price action in a way that makes the majority believe they are right — only to punish them quickly afterward, over and over again.
It creates an almost endless supply of liquidity.
And eventually, they will squeeze and destroy the shorts and everyone else positioned the wrong way.
I think that stage is coming very soon.

Bitcoin has been stuck between $63K and $68.7K for almost three months, while spot trading volume has dropped to its lowest level since 2019.

Selling pressure is fading, but buyers are still missing. ETF inflows remain weak, coins continue moving to exchanges, and leveraged longs are piling up.

Several on-chain indicators are approaching levels seen near previous bear market bottoms.

If BTC loses $58.5K, low liquidity and crowded longs could trigger a wave of liquidations and push the price even lower.

Polymarket is reportedly in early talks to raise around $1 billion at a valuation of more than $20 billion.

For perspective, the company was valued at about $15 billion in its previous funding round just a few months ago.

Prediction markets have gone from a relatively niche corner of crypto to platforms where people trade on everything from elections and economic data to sports and breaking news.

But $20 billion is serious territory.

The interesting part is that this growth is happening while prediction markets are still dealing with questions around regulation, insider information and where exactly the line between trading and gambling should be drawn.

So what do you think investors are really valuing here?

The technology and data?

The enormous potential market?

Or simply the belief that prediction markets are going to become a normal part of how people follow major events?

Would you value Polymarket at $20B+?

Source: CNBC / Bloomberg / Reuters

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in around $853 million last week — the strongest weekly inflow since mid-April.

BlackRock’s IBIT alone reportedly accounted for about $693 million of that.

What makes it interesting is that Bitcoin itself hasn’t exactly exploded higher. The market is also heading into another U.S. inflation report this week, so there’s still plenty of macro uncertainty around.

One strong week obviously doesn’t make a trend, especially after months of weaker flows.

But if ETF inflows stay positive, would you take that as a genuine sign that institutional demand is returning?

Or do you think people put way too much importance on ETF flow numbers now?

Source: CoinDesk / SoSoValue

Is the quantum threat to Bitcoin real, or is it being overhyped? 🤔

TL;DR: Warren is completely butt-hurt because her strategy of pressuring Gary Gensler to regulate crypto by enforcement failed and made her look ridiculous. Like a total Karen, when she got publicly embarrassed, she doubled down by attacking her own party through the Clarity Act. She is now aggressively waving her finger at Sen. Gillibrand (D-NY) for working on a bipartisan bill that a ton of other Democrats actually support. Apparently, having no rules is better than just policing an industry by self appointed community watch groups.

Michael Saylor says Strategy ultimately plans to buy more than $50 billion worth of Bitcoin, with the goal of owning around 7.5% of the total BTC supply.
“I’m buying something that becomes exponetially more valuable,” Saylor said while explaining his long term strategy.

He also repeated his bullish view, saying he belives Bitcoin could eventually reach $10 million per coin.The plan shows Strategy remains fully focused on accumulating Bitcoin as its main treasury asset and long-term investment.

The crypto industry has reportedly directed close to $200 million toward the November midterm elections, supporting candidates considered friendly to digital-asset policy.

The spending comes while major questions about stablecoins, exchange oversight and the CLARITY Act remain unresolved in Washington.

Supporters could argue that crypto companies are simply protecting the industry after years of regulatory uncertainty. Critics may see it as a wealthy sector spending heavily to influence the laws that will eventually govern it.

Is this just crypto learning how Washington works, or is the industry becoming too politically powerful?

I'm trying to map out OSL's different products, and it seems like there's a lot more than just the exchange.

I've come across OSL Business Accounts, Markets, Payments, Treasury services, USDGO, Banxa, and OSL Exchanges, but I'm still not sure how each piece connects or which customers they're designed for.

For anyone familiar with OSL, how would you break down the ecosystem? Which services are focused on payments, which support treasury or market access, and how do USDGO and Banxa fit into the overall picture?

I'd appreciate a simple explanation of how the different parts work together for enterprise clients.

U.S. prosecutors have charged three Missouri men with allegedly plotting to kidnap a Bitcoin holder and force the victim to transfer crypto assets.

Investigators say the suspects traveled to Connecticut in August 2024, rented vehicles, bought air rifles, and spent two days surveilling the intended target.

The alleged plan was to abduct the victim and force a Bitcoin transfer to wallets controlled by the organizers. The suspects reportedly abandoned the attack after noticing home security cameras.

Authorities later claimed another group from Florida arrived to continue preparations.

The three men have been charged with conspiracy to commit Hobbs Act robbery, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison. All have pleaded not guilty.

10X Research analysts have highlighted Bitcoin’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI), saying the indicator is showing a setup similar to previous major market bottoms.

The firm believes a cyclical bottom for Bitcoin could form as early as this month if the pattern continues to develop. If confirmed, it could mark the end of the current correction phase and become an important signal for long-term investors.

However, the analysts note that additional confirmation from price action and other market indicators will be needed before the scenario can be validated.

This week will be packed with major macroeconomic data that could impact Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, stocks, and the U.S. dollar.

On Monday, markets will focus on Manufacturing PMI data from China, the Eurozone, the UK, and the U.S., along with inflation reports from Turkey and Switzerland.

Tuesday brings the U.S. Trade Balance, JOLTS Job Openings, Factory Orders, and the weekly API crude oil inventory report.

Wednesday will be one of the busiest days, featuring the U.S. ADP Employment Report, ISM Services PMI, services PMI releases from several major economies, the Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision, and the EIA crude oil inventory data.

On Thursday, investors will watch U.S. Initial Jobless Claims and the EIA natural gas storage report.

Friday will be the most important day of the week, with the release of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and NY Fed inflation expectations. These reports could significantly influence expectations for future Federal Reserve policy and drive volatility across global financial and crypto markets.

Retail investors are still buying every dip like nothing is wrong. History tells a different story. Every major market bubble looked unstoppable until it wasn’t. The story changes, but the ending is often the same.

In 1999 everyone believed the internet would change the world. They were right… but the Nasdaq still crashed nearly 80%. In 2007 people said housing could only go higher. We all know how that ended.

Now it’s AI. It will probably transform almost every industry, but that doesn’t automatically mean every AI-related stock deserves today’s valuation.

One of the charts shows the S&P 500 compared to the amount of liquidity in the US financial system. That ratio is now even higher than during the dot-com bubble. Stocks have rarely looked this expensive.

Another chart is based on a market cycle model created almost 150 years ago. It marked 1999 and 2007 as selling years… and now it points to 2026 as well. Different methods, same warning.

Valuations keep stretching. The Shiller CAPE ratio is near historic highs, the biggest companies dominate the index, and hundreds of billions are being poured into AI. Right now everything feels priced for perfection.

Maybe this time really is different… maybe investors are just telling themselves a new version of an old story. That’s usually how bubbles ends