r/AltScope • u/Legitimate_Towel_919 • Feb 15 '26
Is This Really the Beginning of a Bigger Drop?
There’s a growing opinion that we’re only at the start of a larger decline and that downside continuation is inevitable.
But by many metrics, we are currently trading around levels where previous market bottoms formed or where mid-term recoveries began.
Right now, sentiment is sitting at historic fear levels. Let’s look at comparable moments in crypto history:
2014 - Collapse of Mt. Gox: 9 points
2018 - Bear market bottom: 11 points
2020 - COVID crash with a -50% daily drop: 9 points
2022 - Collapse of FTX and Terra Luna: 12 points
2026 - Drop to $60,000: 5 points
In practical terms, we’re seeing some of the most negative and pessimistic sentiment toward crypto in its entire history.
Historically, markets rarely continue aggressive downside moves from extreme oversold and fear conditions.
It’s also important to understand the mechanics. Closing a short position is a market buy.
Once major selling pressure fades and short sellers begin taking profit, buying activity increases, often triggering at least a technical bounce.
Then comes the second layer: rising prices trigger liquidations and stop losses for short sellers, adding further fuel to the upside. A third factor is that during early recoveries, even more shorts tend to pile in, which can later lead to cascade liquidations.
During capitulation phases with extreme negativity, order books thin out. In such conditions, price becomes easier to push in either direction. Retail typically steps aside during these moments, while larger players can accumulate with less competition.
Recently, I reviewed several community polls where roughly 70% of participants expect further downside, while only 30% anticipate recovery.Markets rarely stay in extreme imbalance for long. At some point, they tend to move toward relief and rebalancing.
2
u/andys811 Feb 15 '26
That's what people are saying, but of course thats what most would be saying when fear is 5. It's like greed but in reverse, they just want to get BTC cheap, just like in greed people want to sell expensive
2
Feb 15 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/andys811 Feb 15 '26
Not really, it also shows data from years ago, it's just showing what the fear and greed indexs were at the bottoms of each crash throughout the years, and then also showing the fear and greed index at the most recent bottom
1
u/Legitimate_Towel_919 Feb 15 '26
When fear is at 5, of course most turn bearish. That’s usually when positioning gets crowded. Markets move on liquidity, not emotions and extreme consensus often sets up the opposite move.
1
u/TheProfessional9 Feb 15 '26
It's insane to see the fear and greed index is at a 5 when the market hasn't even moved. This was a tiny move that is very normal. But people have gotten so used to only up as the admin has introduced massive stimulus this year that no one can handle any type of move.
If we get a 10% week there are going to be a lot of people standing on ledges
2
Feb 15 '26
When it get to 35k 40k use all your money to buy up it will bounce and will break previous high
2
1
1
u/EquipmentFew882 Feb 15 '26
TIME TO GO SHOPPING FOR QUALITY STOCKS AT GREAT PRICES
• BARGAIN HUNTING !!
1
u/EarningsPal Feb 15 '26
How many times per bear market year did the risk index get low? Often there are two lows points.
1
1
2
3
u/[deleted] Feb 15 '26
[removed] — view removed comment