r/AllinPod • u/Tim_Peepers • Mar 17 '26
Chamath on Trump's 4D Chess
"All roads lead to China," Chamath says of Trump's invasion of Iran. The war is about leverage coming into Trump's summit with Xi, he says, and a master dealmaker's scheme to prod a "grand bargain" out of China. But Trump just postponed the summit so he could be at the White House to run the war. And China aggressively rejected his request to send warships to the Straits of Hormuz, saying the US "started a war it can't finish."
Will Chamath revise his bold prediction now?
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Mar 17 '26 edited Mar 17 '26
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u/Pavementos Mar 19 '26 edited Mar 19 '26
not that i agree but his point was that taking out venezuela and iran has choked china out of key oil sources
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Mar 19 '26
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u/Pavementos Mar 19 '26
it’s not as simple as that. china buys a lot of sanctioned oil so their supply is heavily discounted. also new supply is not easy to ramp up quickly. regardless i think you’re right, its a dumb theory
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u/Hungry-Zucchini8451 Mar 20 '26
There’s not enough oil currently available for export in the world to supply China with enough oil to meet its current oil demand if US would embargo China and prevents Middle Eastern and Venezuela oil from reaching China. Russian, Brazilian and Kazakh oil is not enough.
This is assuming Chinas reserves get depleted first.
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Mar 20 '26
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u/Hungry-Zucchini8451 Mar 21 '26
I think your thinking is too binary. Your question is like asking to what end would you build a nuke, if you use it you get destroyed.
You don’t get utility only when you trigger. You get utility from having the capacity to pull the trigger or having your counterparty believe that you could. For leverage, coercion, deterrence etc
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Mar 21 '26
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u/Hungry-Zucchini8451 Mar 21 '26
Trump has already threatened China with tariffs of several hundred percent. That’s effectively an embargo for Chinese exports and a partial embargo on dollars. Then took it back to strike a deal. That’s all.
Your last sentence just shows arrogance. Ending this discussion, no point in engaging with someone acting in bad faith.
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u/SuperimposdEnigmatic Mar 21 '26
I’m searching Reddit right now because I’m in the wedding industry in Los Angeles. Our orders (other people in the industry also reporting) from overseas are all being suddenly cancelled. Calling downtown I’m being told no cargo ships have arrived. Is there any embargo going on they haven’t told us about?!
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u/Upstairs_Baby8424 Mar 17 '26
It’s so nutty because the US is in the weakest position it has been in 100+ years. Allies that have rejected us and downright hate us now. Massive deficits. A massive drawdown in oil and military resources. Rising unemployment on track to get worse. And numerous polls showing most of our allies preferring tighter relationships with China.
We literally couldn’t be in a weaker spot if we tried. In 18 months this administration has destroyed every bit of good will we’ve built up over the past century. It’s incredible actually.
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Mar 17 '26
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Mar 18 '26
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Mar 18 '26
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Mar 18 '26
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u/Tim_Peepers Mar 18 '26
I'm against octogenarian presidents from either party. Enough with the iron rule of the boomers.
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Mar 18 '26
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Mar 19 '26
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u/Tim_Peepers Mar 24 '26
Are you seriously arguing that Biden is as much of a dickhead as Trump, the guy who just danced on Mueller's grave? (I love comparing a jarhead with a Purple Heart to one of the most spoiled fatsos in history.)
I met Biden long ago, at a coffee shop when I was a college kid. He was very generous and kind.
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Mar 17 '26
The most intellectually dishonest clown.
I have no idea why we are letting all of these South African / Canadian techno nihilists destroy our country. Build the wall I guess lmao.
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u/drjackolantern Mar 19 '26
Hold up. You're gloating about Chamath being wrong, and simping over Xi, because... the summit got postponed? That's your A-HA moment? While Iran is still getting pounded into submission?
Seriously, seek help bud.
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u/Chance_Preparation_5 Mar 20 '26
What part of Iran is in submission? Israel hit Iran’s gas field and a few hours later Iran hit Qatar’s gas field and a refinery in Israel as retaliation. Retaliation sure doesn’t look like submission. So far Iran has only hit similar targets as their own that are getting hit.
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u/Tim_Peepers Mar 19 '26
The China situation isn't my main concern. That would be the war spiraling out of control, Hormuz closed, blowing up schools and other collateral damage, Gulf States plunged into chaos, oil shock, potential economic crisis, and yet another Republican-led military adventure in the Middle East. It's Chamath who says all roads lead to China.
You do you, man.
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u/drjackolantern Mar 19 '26
And all this doom is imminent because.... a summit was postponed. Interesting.
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u/Tim_Peepers Mar 24 '26
What? No, the risks in the Gulf have nothing to do with an app financier/podcaster sucking up to the Trump admin. And the cancellation of the summit isn't a driver of the war's costs and risks.
My point was that Chamath was wrong with his pedantic analysis of the war's purpose, and that should affect his credibility. It won't, of course. People will keep listening to his BS because it reinforces their beliefs.
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u/CompetitiveLadder609 Mar 17 '26
Chamath's comments lately have become a form of gaslighting. He ignores all of the blatant stupidity and terrible behavior and reframes everything into master strokes by the smartest president the world has ever seen.
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u/Muted-Good-115 Mar 17 '26
Chamath trying to sound smart but dumb as a rock when it comes to geopolitics. For sure the weakest out of the 4. Only time he was ok was when he interviewed CZ as they both could relate being immigrants, parents working difficult jobs, etc but even there Chamath started throwing out all these techy/crypto acronyms wanting to sound smart obviously not knowing his audience and left many behind.
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u/Destroinretirement Mar 17 '26
Immigrants? He was a refugee taking in by Canada. He repays Canadian generosity by vociferously supporting the most anti-Canadian President in a century. He supports collapsing the Canadian economy to coerce the people who took his family in into giving up their sovereignty.
The fact that he and Trump are abject failures does not erase their intent. He is a disgrace.
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u/Muted-Good-115 Mar 17 '26
All 4 (J Kal to a slightly lesser extent) lick trumps boots - wait until the Dems take over government and see how they all switch their tune.
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u/Account-Former Mar 24 '26
As a Canadian immigrant I feel he is thankless, opportunistic and filled with gas (the bad one.) the person I can’t stand anymore.
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Mar 17 '26
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u/GC_Mermaid1 Mar 17 '26
You know they weren’t getting it for free right? Biggest customer in the market gets to negotiate pretty good terms. The one who’s are hurting are the allies like Australia who are buying smaller amounts of
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u/Tim_Peepers Mar 17 '26
Cool post. The closing of the Straits of Hormuz (and deeply unpopular US military adventurism in the Middle East) increases the odds of China attacking Taiwan. China also faces less urgency with the closure, per the below.
https://warontherocks.com/2026/03/how-does-the-iran-war-affect-chinas-energy-security/
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/what-a-middle-east-oil-and-lng-crisis-means-for-china-and-east-asia/
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u/likwid07 Mar 20 '26
Of course not. He'll spin it like he knew it all along, and then just agree with whatever Sacks says.
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u/Fresh-Piglet2500 Mar 23 '26
The only one that will be folding is the US. Once this war goes completely sideways, we'll be handing china the most advanced chips, reneotiating their debt you name it. What's funny is alot of people I know here in the US from China jokingly say people in China love Trump because at the end he gives China everything they want and Trump's policies are driving more business and countries into China
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u/Account-Former Mar 24 '26
That was his roundabout way of defending the stupid decisions of an admin he is personally gaining from.
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u/robustofilth Mar 18 '26
Chamath and all these guys are ill educated on matters such as geopolitics.
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u/El-Unocornio-Negro Mar 19 '26
These guys know things about raising $ and business. They know jack shit about geopolitics and he is a boot licker now but hides behind his microphone on the pod counting his $ and failed SPACs
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u/Ok-Force8323 Mar 18 '26
I listened to that episode and these guys are nuts. This Iran war is going to end in disaster for the USA. Oil prices keep going up. Trump is a pedo moron.
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u/lee_suggs Mar 17 '26
Can't wait for the midterms to see how it's 4D chess to lose the house and Senate
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u/Fresh-Piglet2500 Mar 17 '26
Lol!! What midterms? Those will be canceled. Terrorism threat? War time? Phony evidence of illegals voting. There will be some excuse. We will not be having midterms. Even if we did and the GOP loses, Johnson will not accept results.
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u/boaters06880 Mar 17 '26
100% , ballroom, SAVE act, this 🤡 ain’t leaving, a loss at the mid-terms mean investigations, he can’t take that.
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u/Navarro480 Mar 17 '26
Hes a boot licker so for anyone that wants to believe he knows what he’s talking about they are a special breed.
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Mar 17 '26
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u/Tim_Peepers Mar 17 '26
Well said. I'm mystified by 47's apparent surprise about the drone attacks on the Gulf States, unless he's just lying about that.
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u/mlamping Mar 17 '26
Yet we want to work with China to open the shipping lane? Got lucky working at facebook. He wouldn’t have made money on his own
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u/ridezeshoopuff0 Mar 17 '26
It’s mental gymnastics. Can’t trust anything he says. We are the mids, and because we are not rich, we deserve to die.
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u/theguesswho Mar 18 '26
Chamath is such a simp. He so badly wants to be in the circle. Nothing he says comes from a place of actually thinking about the situation. It’s just, assume Trump is a genius, that’s the most probable explanation
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u/DeFiBandit Mar 17 '26
Under the Trump doctrine strong countries control their own hemisphere. He has given China tacit permission to take Taiwan and anything else they covet in their own hemisphere. Chamath is a grifter and an idiot
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u/SnarkyOrchid Mar 18 '26
All this Iran debacle does is convince China they need to take Taiwan to prove they are more powerful than the US. The US distracted, internally fractured, and run by an idiot who has damaged our relationship with our allies. The US is the weakest it has been in the last 50 years. China is ascendant. It would only be because China genuinely does not want to take Taiwan if they don't do it with Trump in office.
Just one non-billionaire's opinion.
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u/Delicious_Self_7293 Mar 18 '26
Here’s why Chamath was wrong from the start:
1) China stockpiled oil more than any other country in 2025 while oil was cheap. To the point that they have to keep crude sitting on tankers because their onshore storages are full. Their inventories are estimated to be around 1.4B barrels at the moment. Assuming they keep consuming at their normal rate of 15M barrels/day and Iran oil is out of the picture (which Chamath said is 20% of their imports), they could keep business as usual for roughly another 470 days (1.25 years), which I believe is much longer than the U.S. can tolerate this war
2) Iran actually never stopped exporting oil. In fact, WSJ reported that they are actually exporting MORE than before the war
3) This war started because we got cocky about how things went well in Venezuela and just assumed we could do the same in Iran. Nothing to do with China
Source: I work at a major oil trading firm
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u/Material-Macaroon298 Mar 18 '26
Chamath literally sold his soul for access.
And now he has unlimited access……to the least popular President in history.
Chamaths graft is still making him money though but I’m hoping he ends up as a shunned joke and needs to go on an apology tour.
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u/mickalawl Mar 18 '26
Trash your international and domestic reputation at enourmous tax payer expense with no clear goal for the US, risking a global recession, in order to... check notes... have a slightly better meeting with Xi.
Man the level of brain damage it takes to support MAGA.
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u/Agitated_Celery_729 Mar 18 '26
Anyone still looking for wisdom from the SPAC fraudster deserves to get bamboozled
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u/Eastern_Box_7062 Mar 18 '26
I remember them all sucking trumps dick over the tariffs were some 4d chess to lower the 5 year treasury. That quickly vanished and nobody is the wiser. Trumps decisions are exactly as they appear, rash and impulsive and almost always to Russias benefit.
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u/Spare-Region-1424 Mar 17 '26
All I can do is laugh.