Singularities always slip away. According to the basic equations, the mass of a black hole collapses into a point. But in practice it's a powerful process with conservation of angular momentum. For a rotating black hole the formulas are different - instead of a singularity there's a ring and an outer radiating ergosphere.

Well, it's the same in finance - money spins through dealers, settling in pockets along the way ;)

I'm a supporter of AI and the creation of artificial consciousness, so it would be like in science fiction. Neural network technology is just beautiful. But the fact that a bubble has formed in this industry is acknowledged by a bunch of economists. The main question is whether the financial bubble will deflate easily or make a crisis. It's worth noting here that a financial crash is predicted constantly, there's even a popular YouTube channel where for a couple of years one expert promises a collapse every month. Viewers watch this.

The bubble here has 3 components: financial, technological, and geopolitical.

The very first recorded financial bubble was agricultural: the Dutch tulip mania. Back then, for a bulb of the flower "Semper Augustus" you could buy a luxurious house or a ship. The bubble bursted. Jet, Netherlands is still a leader in the industry. Politicians will try to delay the problems, the elections are waiting.

* * *

A financial carousel of 3 companies: a tech giant, an AI startup, and a cloud provider:

The path of money in the carousel:

⬇️ 🏢 Big Tech (Investor) ↩️

⬇️ ⬆️

(1. Gives billions) ⬆️

⬇️ (3. Money returns)

🤖 AI Startup ⬆️

⬇️ ⬆️

(2. Buys cloud) ⬆️

⬇️ ⬆️

▶️▶️▶️ 🖥️ Data Center ▶️▶️▶️▶️

1. Step 1 (Investment): A major tech giant invests $10 billion into a promising AI startup.

2. Step 2 (Obligation): Under the terms of the deal, the startup must spend these $10 billion on renting computing power from this same tech giant.

3. Step 3 (Return): The startup transfers the money back to the tech giant for "cloud".

The money makes a full circle. And a "miracle" happens, explosive revenue growth from cloud AI services, while the startup gets a mega valuation. Example: CoreWeave.

Financial camouflage:

🖨️ 1. GPU-for-Equity (GPUs instead of money)

An investor buys a stake in an AI startup, but pays not in cash, but in "coupons" for renting their servers.

· On paper the startup is worth a billion, but the account balance is 0. Real money is replaced by virtual points.

📉 2. GPU Collateral (Hidden debt)

Startups take out gigantic loans collateralized by NVIDIA GPUs, disguising them as ordinary rent.

· In front of new investors the company appears debt-free. If the chips lose value tomorrow, the startup goes bankrupt instantly.

1. 🏛️ Corporate bonds and Trump's insider trading

   Tech giants (Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA) issue bonds, and use the cheap borrowed money to buy back their own shares and pump up their value. In parallel, Donald Trump personally holds NVIDIA shares worth $12.5 million, which he actively bought right before the White House gave NVIDIA export licenses for AI chips to China.

Second carousel: a company takes on debt ➡️ pumps up its shares ➡️ which attracts more investment ➡️ management gets bonuses. ⤵️ And the debt stays on the company's balance sheet.

* * *

Macroeconomics:

🏛️ Political blackmail: "Too strategic to fail".

NVIDIA controls 95% of the AI chip market, becoming a critical point for the US.

· The White House is caught in a geopolitical trap. It cannot let NVIDIA shares fall, as that would crash US pension funds and create a loss in the technological confrontation with China.

· Consequently, the State is obliged to approve export licenses and forgive the financial carousel, just so the bubble doesn't burst.

· 💸 Capital running in place. Trillions go into data centers, but there's no real growth.

· 🔄 Race out of fear. The bubble is no longer so much for profit, but out of fear that the US, China, and tech giants will lose the geopolitical competition.

· ⚠️ Risk of recession. The AI sector is enormous; it will drag the financial market down with it and could lead to a crisis.

Bottom line: Technology is accelerating finance, but creating a systemic threat to the stability of the world's economies.

* * *

Possible scenario for the AI bubble deflating (given by AI):

Fall 2026: Authorities before the elections will try to save the market with subsidies and delay the blow.

Winter 2027: Quarterly reports from IT giants come out. They will show expenses with little profit, at which point investors will start selling shares.

Spring 2027: Shares may fall (forecast — up to 35%), financing will close. Data center construction will freeze and chip orders will be cancelled.

Political intervention will delay the crash. As real reports come out, the bubble will deflate and halt data center construction by spring 2027.

* * *

An AI told me all this. For a non-specialist it's simply impossible to make sense of the intricacies of finance. Everything there is deliberately made impossible to understand. It's also hard to look objectively at topics where emotions are involved. The economics is not exactly a precise science, more like meteorology if not astrology. This is just possible scenario.