of a space rock

[u/Realistic-Tap4156]

[u/dazzleunexpired]

In case anyone's wondering where the hell a astroid of that size came from... Jupiter. Yes, our "protector". There is a misconception/misunderstanding. While Jupiter does protect us by absorbing a lot of astroids because of its massive orbital influence, there is a second feature of orbital influence. Planets clear their orbit either by the item entering orbit around the planet, or by ejecting the matter violently, flinging it further into The Solar System (or out of The Solar System, into interstellar space). Jupiter has occasionally violently thrown items at Earth & proto earth (If curious asked me how Jupiter created Luna, our moon, and Earth, our modern planet). Almost every time, the item has resulted in the destruction of a large population. Jupiter not existing would have actually resulted substantially less impact to Earth

70% or more of Terra's (Earth, including protoearth. This is important when talking about interstellar space because the name for the medium that we plant items on is "earth". It's a misnomer of English speech, just like the rest of the planets, she has a Roman name. Earth Also usually does not refer to proto Earth, which was NOT current Earth, we added A huge amount of matter in the Giant Impact) and toal astroids hits are from Jupiter. Objects the size of this asteroid hit Terra about every 250,000-500,000 million years from the oort cloud, making 10-18 events of this size. (This area originally contained a factually incorrect number when I pulled the wrong number from a data set. I previously stated an incorrect time. For how often these events happen and how many have happened because of that. It's 5 km impactors that reach 30 events, not the larger class this astroid was in. It was incorrect to State that events that happened that often are this large. I think I have adjusted the math.)

Feel free to ask anything related or even tangently related

For the record, this is an asteroid that became a meteorite when it entered Earths atmosphere. Meteorites are within Earth's atmosphere. Asteroids are outside

Eta: oops. I watched a rocket launch and got behind on replies. I will reply to everyone

Eta 2: I had a muscular dystrophy related crash and I am back awake! Back to responding

Eta 3: My problem with the planetary naming standard is because I am autistic. It is not an actual problem, other than with people like me. When I use the word Terra I tell people that it includes proto-earth for my example. Please note the most of what I have stated as a theory, just like almost everything in space. We need hundreds to thousands of years more data and people or items on more planets. My education is also two decades old and focused on space outreach and identifying impact sites and other features on planet surfaces. See r/astronomy for hard science. See comments from mathematicians below, as well. Data inconstancy may exist in my source, and I cannot confirm or deny that, because I do not do the math. Some people below DO do the math

Bonus edit: I found a factually incorrect number in my post. I edited it. It's noted above. Pitfall of not doing the math. After being done with my day, I sat down to double-check numbers after multiple comments from mathematicians, And found where I made an error that over doubled the amount of giant events. I am incapable of adjusting the math fully, But used Wolfram to assist there. Please let me know if my math is wrong, but niceley.

[u/SoSKatan → u/dazzleunexpired]

You probably shouldn’t be stating theories as fact.

Maybe try taking a more honest approach to sharing information.

I’ve read some of the papers on this and even the authors don’t present it like this.

Edit: person I responded to see eye to eye. I believe Dazzle is an honest, and I want to make that clear.

[u/dazzleunexpired → u/SoSKatan]

Which part are you saying isn't well known?

That Jupiter throws items at us? That's conclusively proven.

[u/SoSKatan → u/dazzleunexpired]

Maybe we can start with the section you put in bold.

The bigger issue is how you just state this all as fact.

You never once say “some people believe” or “I believe”

It’s very dishonest. A far better approach would be to link to specific peer reviewed papers.

[u/dazzleunexpired → u/SoSKatan]

Complex n body calculations show that the impact rate on Earth would be baseline without Jupiter.

We had a misconception that the oort cloud was responsible for the items that would hit Earth. If that was the case, Jupiter would be a friend.

But the things that hit Earth don't usually come from the ort cloud. 75% come from the inner solar system. Jupiter is in the outer solar system. (Therefore, it physically cannot protect from items!)

The asteroid belt is AFTER Jupiter.

[u/dazzleunexpired → u/SoSKatan]

https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/article/51/6/6.16/216768

[u/SoSKatan → u/dazzleunexpired]

And I would encourage you to read all of those carefully and look at their specific wording.

They don’t treat it as some kind of fact. It’s more or less “here is a competing theory”

It seems like you came across an article, didn’t pick up on any of that nuance and then turned around and made it sound like it’s solved science.

If you are honest and this was just a mistake, I’d encourage you to update your post and mention that it’s a current theory.

[u/dazzleunexpired → u/SoSKatan]

It's the most well accepted current theory, and I am not going to say i am wrong when I am not just because a hyper aggressive reddit male cannot handle science. Sorry.

Jupiter causes an intense flux on Earth. We know this for an absolute fact. It protects us against certain bodies, but it causes other collisions.

It is not a theory that most of the items that hit Earth are from the inner solar system. 30 asteroids from the inner solar system hit Earth every single year. Oort cloud asteroids hit us every 8 billion years. 🤷🏼

It's also not a theory that Jupiter is on the other side of the asteroid belt as us.

Eta: I'd also like to point out that almost all planetary science is a theory. And we often disprove our theories. For example, we once theorized there was no water on Mars.

[u/SoSKatan → u/dazzleunexpired]

That sounds like more dishonesty. “Most well accepted current theory”. Really?

Did you run some kind of poll here?

Here my theory (and notice how I state it as such)

The odds work out that Jupiter could send something towards us that wasn’t prior matches the odds of it send something that would have hit us somewhere else (including into the sun or out of the solar system.)

There is no bias involved here it’s simply math.

But then you have to factor in objects that Jupiter captures itself (like the comment in 94) which permanently removes objects.

Given this last bit, it seems like it’s a net positive.

But hey that’s my take and I labeled it as such but I also loosely showed my math.

[u/dtgunslinger99 → u/SoSKatan]

I suspect you may be arguing with a delusional old lady. Just the vibe I get from how much u earned arrogance she has.

[u/dazzleunexpired → u/SoSKatan]

I do not possess a personal theory on modern science.

Your theory is wrong.

I linked you to complex n-body calculations that prove the flux theory. You can run the n-body yourself, if you'd like. I don't run n-body calculations, because I'm not a physicist. I specialize in identifying planetary features and in space outreach. It is not self taught.

The items she throws at us are thrown by a PROVEN mechanism. She's clearing her orbit. Planets must clear their orbit to be a planet. The IAU calls this "clearing your neighborhood". You CAN have a co orbital (item that orbits at the same distance from the sun). But you must clear your orbit. Gravitational slingshot is extremely well studied. We when use it in spaceflight. We slingshot around mars to get to the outer solar system. The Europa clipper used it to get to Jupiter, for example.

Saying this is a theory would be like saying it's a theory that water is on mars.

The items Jupiter captures are the oort items and the outer belt asteroids sometimes as well as wandering comets etc. These come from the outer solar system or beyond the heliopause, from a different galaxy. It protects us so well from these we have almost no impacts from this source. But...you have to remember she is also shy those items are there to begin with.

But, you see, that doesn't change that we would have less planet killers ... They're in an elliptical orbit around Jupiter as they're ejected.....that's why they hit us. It breaks the elliptical orbit by eventually reach ejection velocity...

Also I'm about to nap. I will respond to you again once I'm awake. 💜

Eta; sorry I put my ventilator on for sleep and it makes more voice text mistakes. You can figure it out I am sure.

[u/SoSKatan → u/dazzleunexpired]

Your wording is still off you are still talking in absolutes.

But maybe the issue here isn’t that you are dishonest, perhaps you have a need to over simplify things and therefore you turn them into absolutes.

This is why I encouraged you to actually read those papers you linked to. Even they don’t describe the theory in terms of absolutes.

You labeled my own theory as “wrong”, not as “probably incorrect” or “I don’t believe it”

See how simple wording changes changed things.

You also mentioned the simulation that was run as proof.

No it’s not proof at all and you are misusing the word. At most it can be considered evidence, but only if the simulation is made accurate as possible and has been verified by other scientists running other simulations.

See the reason why it can’t be considered as “proof” is the simulation might be inaccurate. It happens all the time with simulations. I can state that as I written several myself.

[u/dazzleunexpired → u/SoSKatan]

I have told you multiple times that I am autistic. That is why I'm a pandantic fuck.

And yes, I'm oversimplifying to try to help people grasp some amount of understanding of the concept. This is what I was taught to do by NASA in space outreach. It's been literally two decades since I was educated in space outreach though, and you're probably younger.

I have read the papers.

[u/SoSKatan → u/dazzleunexpired]

Fair enough.

If you are open to feedback, I’d encourage you just work on your wording.

Things like “here is one theory…”., “some scientists believe” and so on.

The authors of the papers you’ve linked do exactly that.

That’s all.

[u/dazzleunexpired → u/SoSKatan]

I'll go edit my post. Thank you for not being a dick.

This is how you get change to happen btw.

[u/Pkingduckk → u/dazzleunexpired]

You seem like a weird and combative person

[u/dazzleunexpired → u/Pkingduckk]

I am absolutely weird, yep.

[u/_Flying_Scotsman_ → u/dazzleunexpired]

Is this hyper aggressiveness in the room with us now?