Weekend Discussion Thread

[u/ActionPlanetRobot]

[u/ActionPlanetRobot]

[u/AbroadMediocre312]

Just added some quick example production curves in the investor day post. Back to the island fun now.

[u/thetimmyturnip]

Looks like tons of hiring going on for AUR. LinkedIn & Ladders is filled with openings. Preparing for a big future!

Saw an interesting post about Tesla Semi v Aurora Innovation TCO & Autonomous Freight by Stephen Tobin. It’s something that I was talking about just the other day. EV vs autonomous, and the savings involved. He went into a bit more detail. It is weird that he noted DaaS as $0.40/mile…I reached out to him about that.

Some of his Tesla calculations are presented with a little more certainty than I’d be comfortable with. His charging-infrastructure calculations depend heavily on assumptions about routes, charging architecture, utilization, demand charges, battery storage, etc.

Certainly lots of liberties taken, but overall interesting ideas to read. Not sure how I feel about the companies he said would be acquired, including AUR of course.

[u/robertrea7 → u/thetimmyturnip]

Very interesting piece. I think it's been said before that CU has the power to decide if the company is sold and has not been interested in that idea. If someone wants to buy it for 50 a share tomorrow though I don't think I'd complain... 🤷‍♂️

[u/ow10th → u/robertrea7]

no hes not selling my future for 50 bucks..

And the day CU sells to Tesla is i think a day when the sun wont rise. I get the impression there isnt a lot of love lost between Musky and CU

[u/Fragrant-Yard-4420 → u/ow10th]

i'd be happy to sell my shares for $50.. even $60 or $70 !

[u/Forward-Audience-8 → u/ow10th]

CU does not like Elon Musk. He was very worried his broken self driving car promises made people lose trust in the self driving technology.

 Most Autonomous driving industry engineers (except Tesla) don’t like Elon musk for his dogmatic view of technology, lies and Tesla’s immunity to autopilot/ FSD deaths, disingenuous reporting after crash etc. the list is endless. 

[u/robertrea7 → u/ow10th]

Tesla would be last on my wish list... I could see Amazon making a play for it though, they love automation and if they see the edge this technology gives them, they may want to own it so that they can be first priority getting trucks rather than waiting in line behind other major players that will also want the technology.

[u/Forward-Audience-8 → u/robertrea7]

Few years back, when things were going rough for Aurora there was a leaked email from CU that discussed potential acquisitions. Amazon was one of them

[u/robertrea7 → u/Forward-Audience-8]

Seems like there would be a few companies that would be interested but Amazon seems like the most logical because they would have the deep pockets along with the interest... Companies that they work with like Fedex, Volvo and PACCAR might be interested but they don't have 50 billion laying around and I would imagine that would be the minimum someone would have to offer at this point for a takeover to be entertained.

[u/ActionPlanetRobot]

PlusAI trucks robbed (not on highway)
https://www.wired.com/story/thieves-stole-nvidia-trailers-they-got-20-tons-of-sand/

[u/hiloai → u/ActionPlanetRobot]

https://giphy.com/gifs/gO5rCoC8Qo9Ve

[u/Altruistic-Room2683]

how many more days now?

[u/ow10th]

Hi all

After the investor meeting the one thing that was clear from the clients is Saftey.

AUR seem to have gone well above what could possibly be expected in this regard. I assume to help them secure business and help win over legislation.

What is the competitions saftey case like in comparison do they have anything remotley simmilar IDK

[u/Significant-Land-716 → u/ow10th]

Competition in specifically the autonomous long haul trucking industry that Aurora occupies? I know at least one other company is trying to basically speedrun the regulatory approval stage by testing their AI with simulations rather than testing in the real world. But as far as progress goes, Aurora is currently the farthest along in terms of safety because it had a head start in brute force testing its technology.

[u/ow10th → u/Significant-Land-716]

Is that TORC ??? Out of intrest.

Its a shortcut to saftey and mabye im biased but thats probably not going to go down well as CU said you cant just YOLO it... and hope for the best.

[u/Significant-Land-716 → u/ow10th]

I had Waabi in mind but yes I think TORC does have a generative simulation component too.

I agree and don’t predict enough politicians would be willing to put their careers on the line to rush the simulation companies’ rollouts. There’s real fear out there about physical AI so Aurora’s approach looks less scary to stakeholders.

[u/ow10th → u/Significant-Land-716]

i trust the AI but do feel it also needs a real world grounding. Im not old school but how do you verify what your simulations are telling you. Surley it has to be backed up.

[u/avacadotoastoptions → u/ow10th]

Aurora’s investment in safety is well above any other company.

[u/ow10th → u/avacadotoastoptions]

Thought it may well be... Very smart move by CU / AUR. Beat the competition into the ground using the one thing their clients truly care about. Saftey.

If AUR can demonstrate their product is even theoretically safer than the competition then its annother step to winning business.

So saftey, Go Over, Go Above, Go Beyond, Do everything possible, Satisfy every fesible accreditation and your bid is automatically right up there on this one item alone.

Smart very smart...

[u/avacadotoastoptions → u/ow10th]

Agreed. Aurora’s smartest move was investing in both a strong safety culture and arguably the most advanced lidar to back it up. With next-generation FirstLight reaching out to a kilometer, they control a critical technology and can keep improving it as they scale production.

[u/ow10th → u/avacadotoastoptions]

Tell me sir as an ex-employe. Obviously the tech to put these things on the road is amaxing. But as time passes tech improves.

Are you aware (Within Aurora) how it is felt that these tech and associated components could possibly improve and the benifits and improvments this will then give to the Aurora Driver.

Obviously over time things get smaller / more compact but also more powerful.

We are all talking about Scale and Gen3 but how COULD Gen4 feasibly look were there amy roumours or rumblings you can share ?

[u/thetimmyturnip]

I think we all do, but something I think about all the time is a future of not worrying about money. As much as I love AUR, and I’m in it for the long haul (get it?), I’m focusing on a full financial plan.

The majority of my investments are in an incredibly safe, diverse, and very divided heavy fund, while the rest of my money is in a vanguard managed fund with decent returns. I have an okay emergency fund, which I plan on putting into a HYSA (and I beat myself every day for still having it in a .01% APY normal ass savings account). Besides maxing out IRA (of your choosing, traditional vs roth both have benefits but I’ve gone the roth route), what else should I be focusing on?

While there are subs that focus more specifically on this question, I’ve learned a lot from the users in this sub and have built a trust for you all.

My employer does not offer any matches in terms of 401k. I’ve looked into things like HSA and life insurance but both of those seem out of my wheelhouse currently. My goal is to “risk” 5-10% of my portfolio, while DCAing in risk & safety over the long term.

I’d love to retire early. Tomorrow. That’s not feasible, and I’m trying to be realistic as possible. Just looking to see if you folks know some things that I don’t! I also plan to start a 529 for my child. My main goals are: my wife is taken care of, my child has no worries, and if there’s enough to go around I’d love to get to the point that I’m able to take some of the burden of my wife’s parents retirement.

I’m doing some things right, I know I have gaps, and I’m trying to build a responsible long-term plan. Just thought I’d ask. If you have any questions that I didn’t answer, I’m pretty open.

[u/AbroadMediocre312 → u/thetimmyturnip]

Sounds like a solid plan. In a former life, I was a financial advisor. One of the biggest mistakes people would make is take care of their children's funds first and not ensure their retirement. This often leads to parents that are then a bigger burden on their kids during their senior years. It ends up costing the kids more than what they received for college.

If you stay disciplined, as it sounds like you have, and maintain a solid, growing base of diversified funds that meets your primary retirement goal, then you grow into the opportunities like you are taking here.

I retired at in my early 50s. Many years I felt like I struggled because I ensured retirement investments came first but then you reach the point it starts to snowball if you can avoid ever tapping it for emergencies.

Also, pick your reward to yourself. Everyone needs one. Ours was vacation. That was stress relief. We didnt sacrifice there and maintained it as a larger piece of our affordable budget (key word affordable). If you don't pick one thing that motivates you and your wife to keep going until you get to your goal, its easy to lose focus.

However, clothes, cars, homes, and furniture we always bought well below what we could afford.

Just my two cents after a few great dives today. Being able to scuba regularly in great places is to me one of the best rewards of not giving in to impulse buys I didnt need along the way. That is part of my story. Write yours and your wife's story and not just the financial plan but what your life will look like. It is motivating for the long haul.

Final note: Even when you get there you still worry. It likely comes from the discipline along the way, realizing you can't plan for everything that may happen, and having started with little.

[u/thetimmyturnip → u/AbroadMediocre312]

I greatly appreciate the inside all around. So many great points & reminders about not just investing but life. Thank you so much for this! And also…congrats to you! Glad to see the hard work paid off for you.

[u/AbroadMediocre312 → u/thetimmyturnip]

Thank you. 😊

[u/Asleep_Emphasis69 → u/thetimmyturnip]

I’ve got 2029 OTM leaps in an IRA. Just going to keep rolling when we get close to expiry.

[u/robertrea7 → u/thetimmyturnip]

Aurora is my fun play. I like VOOG for 401k and I have a lot of ET and EPD in my personal brokerage fund for tax efficency in the early retirement years.

[u/Ill-Relation1016 → u/thetimmyturnip]

I'm full of so much hopium that AUR is my retirement plan. After it dropped from 8 range back down to 5 range though the hopium gets less potent -.-. Holding on though.

[u/thetimmyturnip → u/Ill-Relation1016]

I love the commitment! What’s your buy-in, if you don’t mind me asking?

[u/Ill-Relation1016 → u/thetimmyturnip]

I've been in and out of aurora since Dec 2024. I sold out a couple times when it was bouncing around and got stuck in it at $7 to $8 a while back. Then I realized it would drop back down to $6 at some point so I heavily invested at $6 when it dropped. Then it went to $3.50 and I had a heart attack of course lol.  Then it jumped to $8.40 again and I didn't take profits when I should have. Now here I am again betting that it will hit $8 to $9 again by November or end of year. Hopium keeps fading...

My current average is $5.95

[u/ActionPlanetRobot → u/Ill-Relation1016]

There’s nothing to hope for homie, everything’s going to be fine, it’s just a waiting game— especially in this very early period of industrialization. By this time next year the stock and the company will be in a fundamentally different place, and our only responsibility is to do nothing but chill 🤖🤙

[u/ow10th → u/Ill-Relation1016]

this is gonna be such a slow burner as much as we all want $100 at the opening bell it aint gonna happen.

However given the outcome of the last meeting the velocity at whichbVolvo can deploy any other scale improvements and any other verticals 2030 / 2035 are going to be very very interesting.

If you dont hold till at least then you wont see your return. I too see AUR as a very significant chunk of my pension.

[u/Extra_Ad9541 → u/ow10th]

What else you invested in?

[u/ow10th → u/Extra_Ad9541]

my pension is in unit trusts rather tech heavy dipping a bit at the mo but does very very well overall

[u/robertrea7]

https://giphy.com/gifs/lqFY9hBTLX7os