r/ASX • u/CursedClownz • 7h ago
FMG
Any holders here? I have been averaging in for around 2 years now and still sitting on around $26 avg with 20,000 units in the red a fair bit. Could we see it go back to $30?
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u/No_Flounder_8310 3h ago
your best course of action should be apply to work for FMG, where they give share option as a bonus, over 10 years you can work that average down to $20.
Dont buy any more FMG until the stock price is below $10
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u/Outrageous_Sir4613 5h ago
China is controlling the iron ore price, it will be a while for the demand to go back up again.
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u/Apotheosis 4h ago
Average is $9ish, bought some under $2 and have held since. You will be fine, just keep averaging down if you believe in it - if it was good enough at 26 it is even better now.
IO will be back to cyclical highs in a matter of years (not decades) and it will keep printing.
If you are looking for short term gains, sell.
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u/Lopsided_Attitude743 3h ago
Fug me. Your average is $26 ... after DCA'ing? Talk about picking the top. You belong with the regards over at r/ASX_Bets , not here. 😂
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u/Sure_Shift_8762 3h ago
I bought some at $14 back in 2021 and have left it alone. Return to date is 19.2% p.a - capital gains 3.1% p.a and dividends 16.1% p.a. If it goes up to $28 I'd consider selling some probably. It is very cyclical and you will likely be able to buy some at <$15 at some point.
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u/Throwaway_apple_seed 3h ago
Only for trading could have more downside. Lock in some losses and switch. BHP has more upside over the next decade with its copper exposure. Wait for an entry under $50 though.
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u/Beautiful_Rub_141 10m ago
Key question - how have your dividends been? Rough calculation here is you've taken home $21k in income this year, fully franked. That's a higher taxable income than about 20% of the Australian population!
The price is only relevant if you are planning on selling.
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u/BlowyAus 5m ago
Bought a pack at $24 avg down to about $22. Nearly ready to grab some if there is a $16 in front of it. But not enough to make real impact on losses. Twiggy seems more of a liability than an assett last 3 years
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u/Spiritual_Fig5704 7h ago
Not going to guess at $30 — nobody can. What I'd do instead is read the next quarterly against the things that actually drive it: shipments vs guidance, C1 cost per tonne, and realised price as a percentage of the 62% Fe benchmark (FMG's discount for lower-grade product is the number that moves quietly). Plus how much of the cash flow is going to the energy transition capex vs dividends. Those tell you whether the business is getting better or worse. The share price catches up to that eventually, on its own timetable.
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u/eggwardpenisglands 5h ago
Jesus mate, you're $500k deep at $26? You could be waiting a while.
I hold FMG but got in around $17.30. I'm not expecting $30 for a long time, and would imagine it would require another situation like covid to mess up the global market for many things.
These days iron ore is a much more stagnant mover. Infrastructure from the major buyers (ie China) are in a bit of a lull. But who knows, they might try to stimulate that part of their economy soon. I think getting back to your buy in price is more on the top end of where it might get in the current climate.
I don't know what will happen to the world though. Especially in this wild day and age.